Chambers Financial Group

08/27/2026

Another clue this AM the US economy is going strong: New unemployment claims fell to 203,000 last week, below expectations of 208,000.

Layoffs remain low. Low layoffs = Good.

BTW. jobless claims are currently ~60 yr lows.

08/26/2026

July Personal Consumption Expenditures report this AM shows prices up a bit again. Not a surprise to a US consumer.

A positive note too: personal income up 0.4%. More income = good.😀

Looks like what we would expect from a strong economy. My old Econ textbook says some inflation is par for the course.

Personal income increased $115.1 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

08/25/2026

After 28 yrs working with retirees, I've come to believe that being financially ready to retire and actually retiring are different things.

A hobby, volunteer or part time work, hybrid retirement... something that gives challenge, routine, relationships. A reason to get going and drink coffee in the morning.

My hobbies are chess, the video game War Thunder, and exercise. The first two are difficult and frustrating, and the other is no fun.

Guess I'll keep working😉.

08/24/2026

Busy week ahead for economic data. We'll get updated consumer confidence, durable goods, GDP and the Fed's closely watched inflation measure PCE.

Story du jour is rising interest rates. Have rates risen because bond investors have suddenly become aware of large Gov't debt loads? Or due to strength of the US economy?

Recent indicators are mixed. Weakness in housing starts (-12%), but producer prices jumped and Friday's PMI showed biz activity going strong. 🤔

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-aug26.html

08/21/2026

Friday's S&P Global's PMI report suprised to the upside again!

The monthly survey of Purchasing Managers tracking orders, output, employment and other business conditions showed:

Services = 56.8 (nearly 2 yr high)
Composite = 56.0 (highest since April '22)
Manufacturing =53.2 (still expanding)

S&P Global says the data are consistent with 3% annualized Q3 GDP growth.

More evidence the US economy is going strong.

The strongest growth in the U.S. services sector in nearly two years powered a sharp acceleration in overall business activity in August, offsetting a slowing of growth in a manufacturing sector being...

08/21/2026

I'm wary of narratives about markets. They're just stories attempting to explain incomprehensibly complex market action.

There's some panic this week after the 30 yr Treasury yield popped to 5.25%, the highest level since '07. The explanation du jour is US federal debt and government borrowing.

But why did the bond market suddenly become worried about gov't debt now? The debt wasn't exactly a secret 6 months ago. Or a year ago. Or five years ago.

There's another, more classic explanation for rising rates: a strong US economy and huge demand for capital.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-rout-restarts-one-day-after-bessents-beefed-up-buyback-plan-972766a1

08/20/2026

Best kept secret? US manufacturing is booming.

ISM Manufacturing Index just hit 55.6, highest since 2022. Manufacturing has expanded for 7 straight months.

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

08/19/2026

Long Term interest rates have been rising in US... but it's not only US.

Japan 10 yr Govt bond yld just hit ~3%, highest since '96. Also French 10 yr yld near 17 yr top, and US 30 yr highest since '07.

Concerns look like inflation, rising Govt debt and Govt borrowing.

08/18/2026

Add'l contradiction today: weaker housing data this A.M. yet LT interest rates moving up again.

U.S. housing starts fell big in July. Yet 30 yr Treasury yield moved above 5.3%, highest level since 2007!

Culprits? Oil prices, inflation concern and hvy gov't borrowing.

U.S. single-family homebuilding fell sharply in July to the lowest in more than three-and-a-half-years and contract signings for purchases of existing homes also slid ​in the latest signal that the housing market remains under pressure from higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty from the I...