10/16/2026
We've entered the 4th quarter! Here's what history tells us about this time of year:
Since 1996, the S&P 500 fell during Q4 just five times, generating gains 83% of the time versus the 73% positive rate across all quarters.
Q4ās average gain of 5.6% also leads all quarters and nearly doubles the 2.8% average across all 120 observations.
No guarantees that the next 2.5 months will follow this path, of course, but the five negative Q4s over this period generally required significant economic or policy shocks.
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