07/30/2026
Medicare part D is not going anywhere!
Stop treating the loss of the part D subsidy like the collapse of Medicare. There is a lot of panic right now about CMS ending the temporary part D premium demonstration. I am watching videos that are parroting one another in fear that carriers are either leaving Medicare or that part D is over! The subsidy was roughly $10 pm/pm. This removal does not mean that the lowest priced drug plans are going to jump to $80 or $100 per month. That conclusion is too far out of reality. The federal government still has a national direct subsidy for part D at roughly $255 pm/pm. That is NOT going away.
The $10 subsidy was an additional, (key word) TEMPORARY layer of assistance, placed on top of the normal Part D financing system. CMS is still subsidizing the overwhelming majority of the basic Part D benefit. The federal government did not suddenly walk away from Part D. It removed a temporary stabilizer that was never intended to last forever.
Will some premiums increase? Absolutely.
Will some carriers tighten formularies? Yep
Will some carriers adjust pharmacy networks? Yes
Will some carriers consolidate plans or become less aggressive with artificially low premiums? Probably.
But that is very different from saying the lowest premium plans will suddenly cost hundreds of dollars per month. Part D is still a competitive market. Carriers know that beneficiaries and agents compare premiums aggressively. A carrier cannot casually increase a low cost plan by $60 or $80 and expect enrollment to remain unchanged. Carriers still want to win this market.
Someone will still want the low premium member.
Someone will still design a plan around generic users, preferred pharmacies and tighter formularies.
Someone will still compete for market share.
The bigger issue is not the loss of one $10 payment but carriers are now being forced to price the true cost of the redesigned Part D benefit without it. That may mean fewer plans priced at almost nothing. It may mean more separation between inexpensive plans and richer plans. It may also mean agents must pay even more attention to formularies instead of simply sorting plans by premium.
But everyone needs to stop confusing normalization with absolute destruction. A $10 temporary subsidy ending does not automatically create a $100 monthly premium. It will create pressure and how each carrier responds to that will depend on its membership, drug utilization, contracts, formulary strategy and appetite for growth.
The part D market is changing, but it is not disappearing. The people who should be paying attention are those who assume their current plan will remain the best plan for them without reviewing it. Do not panic over the subsidy ending. Prepare for greater variation, sharper competition and a much more important AEP.