Encompass Lending Group - Desiree Simpson

02/26/2023

If I helped make your dream of home ownership a reality, would you mind giving a referral?

10/19/2022

Always remember that Condos you do not own the land and Townhomes you do. Condos are a bit like Apartment living, where you have people on either side of you and above and below you. Where a Townhome is more of a ROW of homes.

09/13/2022

The news that home prices are finally starting to come down while bidding wars are becoming less common is good news.

Bidding wars are at their lowest level in more than two years.

09/11/2022

"Let us remember the strength, the courage and the kindness that revealed themselves in our darkest hour, and do our best to summon these same virtues into our daily lives." -Gerard Arpey

09/08/2022

The Federal Reserve does not set the interest rates mortgage borrowers pay directly, but its actions influence them.

"Mortgage rates rise again after Fed says it will take 'forceful' steps to curb inflation"

Mortgage rates continued to climb this week following comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank is taking "forceful and rapid" steps to reduce inflation and slow the economy.

09/03/2022

Friday…

Stocks have ended the day sharply lower. The Dow closed -337.98 @ 31,318.44 and the S&P 500 closed -42.59 @ 3,924.26. Mortgage Bonds are sharply higher on the day.

Economic Data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 315,000 jobs created in August, which was above expectations of 300,000. There was also 107,000 in negative revisions to June and July.

The Unemployment Rate increased from 3.5% to 3.7%, which was higher than expectations of 3.5%. The unemployment rate comes from the household survey, which has its own job creations component. This report showed 442,000 job creations, while the labor force increased by 786,000. For those reasons, the unemployment rate increased, but again, partially due to the increase in the labor force.

The labor participation rate increased 0.3% to 62.4%

The real unemployment rate is higher than 3.7%, but the U-3 is what everyone looks at, and removes individuals who are not actively searching for a job – There are around 6 million people that are not being counted that “want a job” but have looked in the last four weeks.

The U-6 all-in unemployment rate, which adds back all these individuals, increased to 7.0%.

Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% in August and are up 5.2% year over year. Average weekly earnings were unchanged from the previous month and are up 4.6% year over year.

Technical Picture

Mortgage Bonds have moved sharply higher off of support at 99.0 following a favorable BLS Jobs Report. The 10-Year has fallen below the pivotal 3.25% level and is currently trading at around 3.20%

08/05/2022

We all know someone who needs a good pickup on a Friday. Here's to those that need a reminder that the weekend is upon us! Have a great day and remember TeamChris is here to help with all your mortgage needs.

www.closewithteamchris.com

08/02/2022

Me: It looks like you have too many write-offs to get pre-approved
Borrow: But look how much income I made last year
Me: Yes, I see that but look how much you wrote off
Borrow: I don't understand
Me: 😕😕😭😭

"That's not a write-off" scene from Schitt's Creek

07/15/2022

Friday…
Stocks have ended the day sharply higher. The Dow closed +658.09 and the S & P 500 closed +72.78 @ 3,863.16. Mortgage Bonds are also sharply higher on the day.

Economic Data
Retail sales rose 1% in June, which was higher than estimates of 0.8%. Core retail sales rose 0.8%, which was 0.5% better than expectations, but there was a negative 0.3% revision to the previous month. Because of the increases within this report, it is likely Q2 GDP estimates get a slight revision higher, but still remain negative.

Because of the 9.1% red hot inflation reading, and somewhat resilient retail sales figure, Fed Governor Waller said that he would consider supporting a larger rate hike July 27th, which would mean 100bps.

After negative prints seen in 3 out of the prior 4 months, the July NY manufacturing index rebounded to +11.1 and that was well better than the estimate of -2.0. While the headline number was an upside surprise, the disappointment was the 6-month outlook falling to -6.2 from +14 and that is the worst print since September 2001. Capital spending plans, both on equipment and tech spending deteriorated, and the outlook for new orders fell to zero from 13.5.

Upcoming Events
Next week is full of important housing data. The MBS Highway housing report will be released, as well as the NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Permits, and Existing Home Sales.

Technical Picture
Mortgage Bonds have broken above overhead resistance at the 25-day Moving Average, with the next ceiling roughly 45bps higher @ 100.603. The 10-year is trading at around 2.93% in a wide range between the 50-day Moving Average and support @ 2.78%

07/01/2022

Friday…

The Bond Market closed early today at 2:00pm ET and will be closed on Monday in observance of the Fourth of July Holiday

Stocks have ended the day sharply higher. The Dow closed +321.83 @ 31,097.26 and the S&P 500 closed +39.95 @ 3,825.33. Mortgage Bonds closed higher on the day.

Upcoming Events

Next Week is Jobs week, which means we will receive the ADP and BLS Jobs Reports on Thursday (normally Wednesday but changed due to holiday) and Friday respectively. We will also receive the Fed Minutes from the June 2022 Meeting.

Economic Data

The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), showed that inflation rose 0.6% in May, which was slightly below the estimates of 0.7%. The year over year reading remained at a 40 year high of 6.3%, but did not increase like many expected.

The core rate, which strips out food and energy prices, rose by 0.3%, also one tenth beneath expectations. Year over year, the index decreased from 4.9% to 4.7%.

Personal spending rose by 0.2% last month, which was half of the expectations. Additionally, April was revised lower by 0.4%. Why is this important? After a negative 1.6% for Q1, everyone focused on Q2 GDP. Before yesterday’s report, the Atlanta Fed was estimated 0% growth in Q2, but with spending lower, which is a big component of GDP, we could see negative revisions and a possible negative Q2 GDP print.

Initial Jobless Claims, which measures individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, decreased by 2,000 to 331,000 after a slight revision to the previous week. While this is still a very low level of initial claims, the four-week moving average is at its highest since December and has been consistently moving higher. Continuing claims, which are those that continue to receive benefits after their initial claim, decreased 3,000 to 1.328M, which is just above the 50-year low.

Bottom line, the absolute level of initial claims remains low but the trajectory higher is now clear and will continue. Once some of the layoffs we have been hare about show up in the numbers, we should see this figure really start to jump, which will lead to a higher unemployment rate.

Technical Picture

Mortgage Bonds tested the 50-day Moving Average ceiling but were rejected and are currently trading between it and support at the 25-Day Moving Average. The 10-Year has moved sharply lower and is currently trading in a wide range with support at its 100-Day Moving Average and a ceiling at the 50-Day.

06/21/2022

Makes Sense…”Marry the house; date the rate."

What does this mean?

It means buy the house you want. But committing to the house doesn't mean you have to commit to the financing available now forever. Smart homeowners always look for a better financing opportunity, and make the move when the time is right. You can always change your financing to more favorable terms later, should better rates and products become available. And if rates only get worse, then you'll be glad you married the house when you did.

06/14/2022

BOMBSHELL!!!

The conversation between Johnny Depp and Amber Heard had at the end of the trial has been leaked! The transcript reads:

Heard: Johnny... Hey! Can you turn around and look at me?

Depp: (bows his head)

Heard: Let's talk Johnny... Talk to me.

Depp: (Turns to his lawyer, and his lawyer shakes her head)

Heard: I have something to talk to you about.

Depp (with his head still down): I have nothing to talk to you about.

Heard: Please, look at me!

Depp: Good bye Amber.

Heard: Tell me something Johnny, do you still love me?

Depp: (Keeps quiet)

Heard: Do you still love me Johnny?

Depp (lifts his head, looks her straight in the eyes and says): Amber, this might be the last time we ever speak, so please listen to me very carefully. If you ever need help with buying or refinancing a house please call Encompass Lending Group - Desiree Simpson at
(832) 495-5794 or visit https://www.closewithteamchris.com/ they’re the best in the biz, friendly, honest, and down to earth. And NO I don’t love you.

Making the Dream of Home Ownership a Reality Close With Team Chris at Encompass Lending Group​ Apply For A Home Loan Purchasing a Home Refinancing a Home Mortgage Calculator Home Loan Checklist What is the Best Solution for You? Team Chris has a solution for you! Contact us today to learn more Sch...