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http://www.rolandfreymortgage.com/

Glacier Mortgage: Roland Frey. Mortgage Broker NMLS #305739, 14 3rd Street East, Suite 280, Kalispell, MT (2026)

09/18/2023

🏡 For the week of September 18, 2023

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher again last week, although the move wasn't much. We did see some volatility when the consumer inflation data came out, but not enough to cause rates to move too much. Consumer inflation came in as expected, although wholesale inflation was slightly higher than forecast.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile ⚠️
This week could once again bring some volatility in rates, but this time it is due to the Fed meeting that concludes with a policy statement and press conference on Wednesday. Rates are more likely to move higher than lower after the meeting is over and during the days after.

🗓️ What's affecting rates this week:
- The Fed: The Fed is unlikely to raise its policy rate at this week's meeting, but future rate hikes will be on the table. Fed members will release their individual projections for rates through 2025, and markets could start to price in another hike to come in November at the next meeting, which would pressure mortgage rates higher now. The only way that rates will move much lower than what we see today would be if markets believe the Fed is done hiking and will have to cut rates in early 2024, which isn't likely.

09/11/2023

𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Unfortunately, mortgage rates moved slightly higher last week after seeing rates fall the week before.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
This week we could see mortgage rates move more erratically than normal, driven by markets' reaction to midweek inflation data and how markets think it will affect the Fed meeting next week. If the inflation data comes in hotter than expected, we could see mortgage rates move higher as markets anticipate the Fed would be more aggressive hiking rates to fight it. However, a surprisingly low inflation number could help rates.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Inflation data: Wednesday brings consumer inflation data, which will be the last major economic datapoint before the Fed meeting next week. Thursday brings wholesale inflation data, but that data usually has a more muted reaction from markets and is less of a concern to mortgage rates.
- The Fed: Markets are currently looking at about a 40% probability that the Fed will raise rates at the November meeting for the final time this year. Markets think it is very unlikely that the Fed will raise rates at the September meeting, instead skipping a meeting like the Fed did in June.

09/08/2023

👍 𝗔𝘀 𝗮 𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹, 𝗺𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀.

Getting a mortgage doesn't have to be frustrating and confusing. 😠 If you have the right person guiding you through the process, it can be easy and more convenient! 😀

𝗜𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂'𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗲, 𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗼𝘄𝗻, 𝗹𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗲 𝗯𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗲.

There's never any obligation or fees when we talk. I can help you get a great low rate, find out how much home you can comfortably afford, and also help you get pre qualified or pre approved (ask me about the difference!).

I hope to hear from you soon!

09/05/2023

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
Mortgage rates moved lower for the first time in a few weeks, as data showed the labor market is still strong but is normalizing and unemployment moved higher.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
This week we could see mortgage rates move off of the best levels seen last week, although we aren't likely to see them move too high too quickly. There is little in the way of economic data this week to set a direction, and rates are likely to move at least slightly day-to-day and could show some volatility during the day. Rates are likely near the lower end of the current range, and it may be a good idea to discuss locking in with your mortgage professional if you are in the process of obtaining a mortgage.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Inflation data: Markets will speculate what next week's CPI consumer inflation data will show, and how it will affect future Fed rate hikes.
- Economic data: There is little in the way of data this week that will affect mortgage rates.
- The Fed: Markets are starting to price in one more Fed rate hike to come in November, which puts pressure on mortgage rates to move higher.

09/01/2023

😎 🍉 𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗱! 🚤 🍦

08/28/2023

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates hit new highs early in the week before falling back to end the week only slightly higher. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday didn't contain any surprises, so basically left mortgage rates unaffected.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
This week will see mortgage rates react to lots of economic data, most of it about the labor market. If the data shows the labor market is beginning to soften, it could help mortgage rates take a break from recent increases. However, if markets see signs of further labor market strength, we could see mortgage rates creep higher. Rates are not likely to move much lower from here though.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Labor market data: This week has lots of reports on the labor market, starting with Tuesday's Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, then Wednesday's ADP private payrolls report, Thursday's unemployment claims, and on Friday the data most likely to push mortgage rates higher or lower... non-farm payrolls and wage data.
- The Fed: Markets are starting to price in one more Fed rate hike to come in November, which puts pressure on mortgage rates to move higher.

08/21/2023

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates continued to rise last week and hit the highest levels of the year, without any signs of a weakening economy or a softening jobs market. Talk of a recession, which would have helped bring mortgage rates back down, has all but disappeared and has been replaced with talk of a soft landing... the term used for seeing cooling inflation while maintaining a strong labor market and economy.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲 👎
The outlook right now is that rates could continue higher, and may not see improvement without some help from next month's labor and inflation reports. Rates already starting this week out higher than last week, as bond yields rise and mortgage bonds lose ground.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- The Fed: Mortgage rates will not move much lower until expectations for future Fed rate cuts start to grow. Instead of cuts though, we could see markets price in another Fed rate hike before the end of the year, which would pressure mortgage rates even higher.
- Jackson Hole Symposium: Fed Chair Powell will speak about the outlook of the economy on Friday morning, and we could see mortgage rates affected by his speech.

08/18/2023

📈 ⚠️ 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿... 𝗡𝗢𝗪 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝘆! 🏠

WHAT? 🤯

Seriously... and 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝘆:

👉 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿, 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, resulting in a wider selection and a better price. It's no secret that inventory is low, and it's hard to find a home in this market that doesn't turn into a bidding war. Higher rates help reduce the number of home shoppers and offers, resulting in less competition for homes and a better price.

👉 𝗜𝘁'𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗽𝘂𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸. Rates have moved higher, but so are home prices. Although you'll be paying more in interest, you'll be building equity as home prices rise as well as paying down your loan. While there is no guarantee that home prices will continue to move higher, tight inventory makes it likely.

👉 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝗮 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿. When rates fall, home prices usually move higher as demand drives up the offers. Waiting for rates to fall means you may not be saving anything at all, and could possibly end up with a higher payment instead. If you buy now, you can always look into refinancing when rates fall, and you'll have the lower purchase price AND the lower rate!

Give me a call, email, text, or DM me to talk more about how I can help you own a home, since these rates are not going lower anytime soon.

08/14/2023

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates moved higher last week, despite consumer inflation data coming in at or better than expectations. Rates started the day Thursday improved, but most lenders repriced to worse rates as the day progressed and markets lost ground. Friday was another bad day for rates.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
This week doesn't show any signs that rates may improve, and there isn't a lot of economic data to look to for help. The outlook right now is that rates may move to the highest levels of the year this week, and are not likely to improve much from here in the foreseeable future.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: Not much on the calendar this week that will affect rates, but markets will be watching Tuesday's retail sales data and Thursday's unemployment claims. Signs of a strong economy are not good for mortgage rates.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates will struggle to improve if markets increase expectations that the Fed could raise its policy rate again this year. Mortgage rates will not move much lower until the Fed begins cutting its policy rate, which isn't expected to happen until sometime next year at the earliest.

08/07/2023

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲 👎
Mortgage rates once again saw a lot of volatility, this time moving steadily higher through the week before improving Friday on weaker than expected jobs data.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 👍
This week brings new inflation data, as well as a slew of Treasury auctions that could cause some volatility for mortgage rates. However, the current outlook is that the data will be good for rates.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Inflation data: Consumer inflation data comes out Thursday, with wholesale inflation data coming out on Friday. If the data shows that inflation is moving lower, mortgage rates could improve on the news. However, if the data shows inflation is heating back up we could see mortgage rates move higher, although that is much less likely.
- Treasury auctions: Mortgage rates are influenced by the price of Treasuries, and a large issuance of new debt this week could push yields higher, which would also mean slightly higher mortgage rates could follow.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates currently reflect the belief that the Fed is done raising rates, but if strong economic data causes markets to anticipate another potential hike we could see mortgage rates move higher.

07/31/2023

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟯𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲 👎
Mortgage rates saw a lot of volatility last week, improving on Wednesday after the Fed meeting only to jump unexpectedly on Thursday when economic data came in showing the economy is not slowing down at all and a recession is unlikely. Rates rebounded a bit on Friday, but still ended the week higher.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates are more likely to creep higher than to improve much, but a lot depends on the jobs data that comes in this week. Rates are not likely to move significantly lower from here unless we see signs of labor market weakness and a slowing economy, which doesn't look likely.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: There are multiple reports this week about the labor market, but Friday's jobs and wage data are most likely to have the biggest effect. Signs of a strong labor market with lots of new jobs created and low unemployment could push rates higher. Data showing labor market weakness would be a surprise.
- The Fed: With lots of data between now and the September Fed meeting, mortgage rates do not yet reflect any future Fed rate hikes. If expectations grow the Fed will continue hiking, mortgage rates will move higher.

07/27/2023

😳 "The Fed just hiked mortgage rates!!!"

❌ (Don't panic, this isn't true!)

Many people confuse rate increases made by the Fed (to the fed funds rate) with an increase in mortgage rates. However, that's not the case.

Why is that? 🤷‍♂️

✅ The simple answer is that the Fed rate hikes are intended to slow down the economy and hopefully curb inflation. The Fed does not set mortgage rates or any other consumer rates, but all of those rates are affected by the Fed's rate hikes. When markets anticipate the Fed will raise rates, mortgage rates do move higher, but months in advance of actual rate hikes. Remember when rates moved higher in June? That was when markets anticipated that a July Fed rate hike was likely, and reacted. Once the Fed actually raised rates yesterday, markets had already anticipated the hike and it had been factored into current mortgage rates.

Although it is a bit more complex than that, the main takeaway here is that 👉 MORTGAGE RATES DID NOT GET WORSE! 👈

In fact, the rates you have access to may even have improved.

If you'd like me to take a look at your situation and see what rates are available to you, reach out anytime. I'd love to help you.

Glacier Mortgage: Roland Frey. Mortgage Broker NMLS #305739

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