06/04/2026
A lot of people think mortgage rates move when the Federal Reserve meets. Mostly, they do not.
Mortgage rates follow a government bond called the 10-year Treasury. Think of it as the IOU the U.S. government issues for 10-year borrowing. When that IOU pays a higher rate, mortgage rates go up too. When it pays less, mortgage rates come down.
What is currently pushing the 10-year up? Things that make investors worry about inflation. Lately that has been oil prices. When gas and shipping get more expensive, the prices of everything go with it, and investors demand a higher rate to lend their money out for the next decade. That higher rate is what shows up on the mortgage you are quoted today.
The flip side matters too. When inflation worries cool off, the chain runs the other way and mortgage rates come back down. None of this is permanent.
If you are house shopping, the practical move is to lock in what you can today and watch the 10-year, not the Fed. If rates drop later, you refinance. Call to talk it through. 904-389-4635.
Nelcor Inc. DBA North Florida Mortgage | NMLS 378379 | Jason Nelson NMLS 225505 | Equal Housing Lender | 904-389-4635