10/15/2026
In October 2021, a retiree wanted the safe part of his portfolio to be really safe. So he put a $100,000 in a long-term U.S. Treasury bond ETF (TLT). Backed by the government... Canβt get much safer than that, right?
Five years later that $100,000 is worth $66,300. At the low, in late 2023, it was closer to $60,000.
Over the same five years, $100,000 in an ultra-short bond fund (VUSB) grew to $119,660. A total bond market fund (BND) ended at $98,380. Same asset class, three very different outcomes, and none of the three had a default.
Hereβs what happened:
Say you own a bond paying 2% and new bonds suddenly pay 5%. Nobody will pay full price for your 2% bond when they can buy a 5% one next door, so its price has to fall until the deal makes sense to the next buyer. Rates go up, existing bond prices go down. Every time.
How far the price falls depends on duration, which is basically how many years youβre stuck collecting that lower payment.
For long-term bonds, that means the current market price will fall significantly if interest rates rise, like they did in the early 2020s.
Short-term bond funds, on the other hand, weren't as affected since their maturity date was nearing, and those lower yielding bonds were about to mature and be replaced with newer issue bonds with higher interest rates.
Long bonds have a place in some portfolios. But if youβre counting on the bond part of your retirement plan to be the steady part, which bond fund you own matters a lot more than most people realize.
Do you know the duration of the bond funds in your retirement account? Iβd love to hear what you find when you look it up.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. Total return with dividends reinvested. For general educational purposes only, not individualized investment advice.