Naor at Homestead Mortgage

06/30/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
The peace deal between Iran and the US crumbled over the weekend, but as of now, the deal is intact again.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.54% Biased to Rise
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 6.12% Biased to Rise
*Note includes 20% down and discount points
Cease Fire Psych-out
No, this is not a copy-paste of a previous market update, but yes, missiles were, yet again, exchanged between the US and Iran over the weekend. Iran is still seeking control of the Strait of Hormuz, and in a defensive response, the US fired missiles at some communications and radar locations. This was followed by Iran launching strikes against US bases in the region. As of now, it seems this was a short bout, and supposedly the deal still is intact. As of now, oil per barrel is still around $70. Mortgage-Backed Securities have taken a bit of a dip, but there is some hesitation to drop further. We are biased for mortgage rates to rise, but that is all dependent on how the US and Iran play together in the region. If the price of oil continues to temper inflation, we will soon see a recovery in the market.

Average Mortgage Rates:The peace deal between Iran and the US crum...

06/24/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
So far, the Iran peace deal has stuck, and oil prices have dropped. We still await mortgage rates to fall in kind.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.55% Lowering
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 6.15% Lowering
*Note includes 20% down and discount points

Oil is Down, but Rates Are Not...Yet
Real progress is being made in the economy “post-war”. The price of oil is $70/barrel, which is almost pre-war levels. So, we would expect interest rates to be the same as pre-war levels, right?
Not so fast! There is still some uncertainty and volatility in the market when it comes to a lasting peace. Before mortgage rates can come down, inflation needs to ease, and this peace needs to stand the test of time. Many consider this inflation to be acute rather than chronic, so we are looking at a shorter turnaround than COVID. To further drive this slowing of the market, home sales are down nearly 27% this year in the western states. So, there is a lot of hope that the market will heal. All this to say, mortgage-backed securities have not responded in kind with the price of oil…yet.

Be ready and start to get your pipeline thinking about buying again in the next couple of months. I know a perfect place to help get them pre-approved for that time!

Oil is Down, but Rates Are Not...YetReal progress is being made in...

06/23/2026

5.0 star review received on Experience.com for Naor (Stanley) Karkay-Selea by Daniel A G - Stanley was responsive and extremely helpful through out the process. He not only got the loan done quickly, he took time to review the process with me and help with any uploading document issues I had. I understand why my agent stongly suggested him and will do the same any chance I get.

06/17/2026

5.0 star review received on Experience.com for Naor (Stanley) Karkay-Selea by Kyle P A E - Very reachable. We had a lot of obsticles come up with the house, and Stanley helped us out with all of them. Helped us stay on track and answered all questions in a timely manner. Very helpful with everything.

Click to see all 123 reviews of Naor (Stanley) Karkay, Branch Manager/Mortgage Advisor

06/10/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
Missiles fly even though peace has been negotiated with Iran. In response, Global oil prices have once again risen and subsequently, mortgage rates.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.48% Rising
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.79% Rising
*Note includes 20% down and discount points
Make Peace, and Oil

US bases around the Middle East have been the subject of rocket fire. As a result, negotiations with Iran have fallen flat on their face. The price of oil is once again rising, and so too are mortgage rates.
This past week has seen a rise in rates, and it seems this will be the trendline for the rest of the week. Keep in mind, the Federal Reserve has not touched rates since December 10th, 2025. It is important to understand that inflation is the main driver of rates instead of the FED.
The main principle of mortgage rate fluctuation is rooted in the lender’s profit margin. To keep it simple, consider the following.

If the current rate is 6.75%
The Fed rate is 3.75%
Inflation is 4%
The Bank’s profit/loss is -1.00%

If the expectation is that inflation will continue to rise, lenders will be forced to answer to the profit gods and squeeze the consumer to make up for rising inflation. Conversely, if inflation comes down, lenders may want to become more competitive so they can attract more customers before the competition can wise up!

Make Peace, and OilUS bases around the Middle East have been the ...

05/24/2026

5.0 star review received on Experience.com for Naor (Stanley) Karkay-Selea by Jessica C - As a first-time homebuyer, I couldn’t have asked for a better experience working with Stanley. From the very beginning, when I first went in to get pre-approved for a loan, he was incredibly friendly, helpful, and welcoming. Buying a home can feel overwhelming, especially for someone going through the process for the first time, but Stanley made the entire experience feel easy and smooth.
He took the time to explain everything very thoroughly every step of the way, which made me feel informed and comfortable throughout the process. He was also extremely easy to get ahold of, and his response time was always very fast. Anytime I had questions or needed clarification, I could stop by his office and he would always welcome me in and make time to answer anything I needed.
One thing that really stood out was how hard he worked to make things happen—he even helped make it possible for us to close escrow in just 25 days! The entire experience was very pleasant from start to finish.
I’ve already referred Stanley to friends because he truly makes the home-buying process smooth, enjoyable, and stress-free from the very first visit

Click to see all 121 reviews of Naor (Stanley) Karkay, Branch Manager/Mortgage Advisor

05/14/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
Kevin Warsh is the new Fed Chair, and rumors of more oil give hope, but inflation is still weighing on the markets. Average rates have been rising steadily.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.36% Biased to Rise
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.71% Biased to Rise
*Note includes 20% down and discount points
Rates Warsh Away
We have entered another market of uncertainty where each day has seen swings of growth or shrinking. There are some legitimate signals of lower rates on the horizon, but the elephant named “Inflation” keeps the market down. While rates are stuck in uncertainty, any news, positive or negative, can tip the scales either direction.

Market Positives
• Kevin Warsh is officially confirmed as the new Federal Reserve Chairman. He is a fan of cutting rates ASAP once inflation slows.
• IEA is optimistic that oil will once again flow through the Strait of Hormuz come this June
• Xi Jinping and Trump met and agreed that Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons, and oil needs to flow ASAP. China used to buy as much as 95% of its oil from Iran. They are hurting and want an end to this conflict ASAP.

Market Negatives
• Inflation has reached its highest level in 3 years, now sitting at 3.8% YoY, up from 3.3% YoY. This is largely driven by the cost of energy.
• Iran still has not agreed to terms for any kind of end to the war.
• Conflict is still up in the air as skirmishes continue and oil is not flowing as freely as expected.

Average Mortgage Rates:Kevin Warsh is the new Fed Chair, and rumors of more oil give hope, but inflation is still weighing on the markets. Average rates have...

05/08/2026

5.0 star review received on Experience.com for Naor (Stanley) Karkay-Selea by Catherine L C - Naor was very patient and took time to break things down and explain the differnt options for me. I had a few issues on my side that delayed the process and he remained patient and helpful on getting everything taken care of.

Click to see all 120 reviews of Naor (Stanley) Karkay, Branch Manager/Mortgage Advisor

04/29/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
The Federal Reserve meets, and inflation data gives the market a pessimistic future.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.23% Rising
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.58% Rising
*Note includes 20% down and discount points
Oil Inflation Catches Rates

Unfortunately, the day has finally come where the effects of the Iran war have finally caught up with our inflation data. The Federal Reserve is meeting both today, April 29th and tomorrow. In this meeting, it is expected that they will reveal year over year inflation to rise from 2.8% all the way to 3.4 maybe even 3.5%. As we mentioned at the beginning of the conflict in March, it would take a few months’ time before the far-reaching arms of energy prices would affect the rest of the economy. That day has come and with it the mortgage-backed securities market has taken a 40 point plunge in one day.

The current 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.23% but is expected to rise drastically. There does not seem to be any immediate relief on the horizon, unless we have a drastic reduction in the cost of oil. For the near and foreseeable future, this means that we will see a rise in mortgage interest rates. In fact, it seems we have gotten very lucky with the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates on this meeting. However, the expectation is if that inflation continues, we will see the federal funds rate increase.

We are at the beginning trend of a rising inflation market. Any buyers who are interested in the housing market or currently in it need to take advantage before they rise much higher.
Realtors, it's time to call your shoppers and let them know the time is now.


https://youtu.be/nAHC1j-afo8

Realtors, it's time to call your shoppers and let them know the time is now.

Oil Inflation Catches Rates

04/27/2026

5.0 star review received on Experience.com for Naor (Stanley) Karkay-Selea by Marcy L C W - Stanley was creative and efficient, which I have always found him to be.
He literally makes the deal happen! Thanks so much.

Click to see all 118 reviews of Naor (Stanley) Karkay, Branch Manager/Mortgage Advisor