Real Investment Advice

Real Investment Advice We run an in-depth analysis to understand our client’s goals and risk tolerance.
(1)

We work with a wide range of individuals, families and business clients, providing money management and financial planning services tailored to each client’s needs.

06/25/2026

6-25-26 Oil Is Down 25%... So Why Isn't Gas?
$USO

prices have fallen nearly 25% since the US announced a peace deal with Iran, yet most drivers have seen gasoline prices decline by only about 4%. Why the disconnect? Lance Roberts explains why lower crude prices don't immediately translate into cheaper gas at the pump.

While falling oil prices should eventually push inflation lower and help future CPI readings, gasoline prices are determined by much more than the price of a barrel of oil. Retail inventories, local competition, and consumer demand all play major roles, meaning the adjustment takes time.

Politicians often blame the wrong target. Major oil producers $XOM $CVX don't directly set the prices you pay at your neighborhood gas station. Retailers determine pump prices based on supply and demand, and as long as consumers continue paying current prices, there's little incentive to cut them quickly.

Companies don't automatically lower prices just because their input costs fall. If demand remains strong, businesses often keep prices elevated, allowing lower costs to expand profit margins instead. That's one reason inflation can remain sticky even after commodity prices decline.

Meanwhile, bond markets are already looking ahead. Investors have begun pricing in the disinflationary effects of lower energy costs, helping fuel a rally in as expectations grow that future inflation reports will improve. $TLT

Watch this Short video to understand why cheaper oil doesn't mean instant relief at the pump, how energy prices flow into inflation, and why supply and demand—not politics—ultimately determine what consumers pay.

Check out our comprehensive "15 Trading Rules" guide ▶️https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/15-investing-rules-to-win-the-long-game/

This guide includes practical rules for managing positions, taking profits, controlling risk, and avoiding the emotional mistakes that often hurt returns during major market corrections.

📺Full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu6OW8jg_XE

Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/

06/25/2026

A narrow market rally is obscuring weaknesses.
Catch Lance Roberts' latest Before the Bell Report:

How does Micron's earnings report affect the outlook for semiconductor stocks and the broader artificial intelligence tr...
06/25/2026

How does Micron's earnings report affect the outlook for semiconductor stocks and the broader artificial intelligence trade?
Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz discuss what Micron's report may mean for semiconductor stocks, market leadership, and the next phase of the AI-driven investment cycle on , streaming live on YouTube, Meta, LinkedIn, & X.
(Links are in the comments)

06/24/2026

Could a stellar quarter from Micron still disappoint?
Here's Lance Roberts' latest Before the Bell Report:

06/24/2026

6-24-26 Before You Buy SpaceX, Watch This
$SPCX

SpaceX may be a generational company, but investors should understand the risks before buying the stock.

A major issue investors need to understand is the lockup schedule. Starting in August, more insider shares become eligible for sale, increasing the available supply of stock. One of the biggest events arrives next year when roughly 46% of shares unlock in a single day, Elon Musk's stake.

That doesn't mean insiders are going to dump everything. In fact, many SpaceX employees are true believers in the mission. But thousands of engineers, mechanics, welders, and other workers who accumulated stock over the years suddenly became millionaires after the IPO. For many, selling at least part of their position to diversify their wealth will be the financially responsible decision.

This is one reason many IPOs struggle after the initial excitement fades. Investors move from buying a story to analyzing actual business performance. Lockup expirations increase supply, insiders diversify, and quarterly earnings reports force the market to focus on revenue growth, profitability, cash burn, and ex*****on rather than hype.

SpaceX has already given back much of its initial IPO gains, and there could be more volatility ahead as expectations meet reality. That doesn't mean the long-term opportunity is broken. It simply means investors should be prepared for the normal post-IPO process that many great companies experience.

For investors who believe SpaceX could become the next $AMZN or $GOOGL (since their IPOs), the smarter approach may be patience. Rather than trying to perfectly time the stock, gradually building a position through dollar-cost averaging over the next several years can reduce risk and take advantage of future pullbacks.

The long-term story may remain compelling, but the path from IPO excitement to fundamental valuation is rarely a straight line, so be careful.

Check out our comprehensive "15 Trading Rules" guide ▶️https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/15-investing-rules-to-win-the-long-game/

This guide includes practical rules for managing positions, taking profits, controlling risk, and avoiding the emotional mistakes that often hurt returns during major market corrections.

📺Full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7C0L0Sd2mU

Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/

06/24/2026

Markets can remain resilient longer than many expect, but understanding what is fueling the rally is critical for managing risk and protecting long-term financial goals. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff tackle your questions about what is really driving stocks higher, whether earnings expectations are becoming too optimistic, the risks of narrow market leadership, portfolio positioning in today's environment, bonds, inflation, artificial intelligence, and what investors should be watching next.

What's driving the market action this week--and how does it affect you?Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff take on your ques...
06/24/2026

What's driving the market action this week--and how does it affect you?
Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff take on your questions from our live chat on , streaming live on YouTube, Meta, LinkedIn, & X.
(Links are in the comments)

06/23/2026

6-23-26 Semiconductors Flash Their First Real Correction Signal
$SMH $SOXX $EEM $EWY

After months of nearly vertical gains, the semiconductor trade may be flashing its first real correction signal.

One of the key indicators to watch has been South Korea’s $KOSPI index, which has become a proxy for the global AI and semiconductor boom thanks to the outsized influence of and . That momentum-driven rally has been relentless, pulling capital into chip stocks, emerging markets, and even leveraged products tied to the trade.

Now, however, that momentum appears to be breaking.
The concern isn't just about a pullback in one market. Semiconductor stocks have become one of the most crowded trades in the world. Investors have watched names like $AMD, $MU, and other AI beneficiaries surge higher day after day, creating powerful FOMO and encouraging increasingly aggressive positioning. For many, simply watching the rally from the sidelines became psychologically difficult.

That is often how momentum extremes develop. Investors stop focusing on valuation, risk, or portfolio balance and instead chase what has already worked. As prices rise, confidence grows. As confidence grows, leverage increases. Eventually, the trade becomes crowded enough that even a modest reversal can trigger a sharp unwind.

If the current breakdown gains traction, semiconductor stocks could experience declines of 8-10% or more in a relatively short period of time. Leveraged products tied to the sector could see even larger losses. The speed of the decline often surprises investors because crowded momentum trades tend to fall much faster than they rise.

This is why risk management matters. Taking profits, rebalancing positions, and avoiding excessive concentration can feel unnecessary during a powerful rally, but those decisions become invaluable when sentiment shifts.

The broader lesson is that successful investing is not about chasing every hot theme. It is about having a disciplined investment philosophy that has been tested across different market environments and sticking with it even when other trades appear more exciting.

Every strategy experiences periods of underperformance and outperformance. The challenge is managing emotions well enough to avoid overleveraging into the wrong trade at the wrong time.
The semiconductor rally may not be over, but the first meaningful crack in the momentum story could be appearing. Investors should pay close attention to whether this is simply a healthy pullback or the start of a larger unwind in one of the market's most crowded trades.

Check out our comprehensive "15 Trading Rules" guide ▶️https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/15-investing-rules-to-win-the-long-game/

This guide includes practical rules for managing positions, taking profits, controlling risk, and avoiding the emotional mistakes that often hurt returns during major market corrections.

📺Full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=donQO1t_hLs

Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/

06/23/2026

Quarter-end rebalancing is hitting markets, so buckle-up--it's going to be a bumpy ride.
Here's Lance Roberts' latest Before the Bell Report:

How To Stay Invested Without Taking Full Market Risk? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn look at protecting your portfolio ...
06/23/2026

How To Stay Invested Without Taking Full Market Risk?
Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn look at protecting your portfolio without selling out on , streaming live on YouTube, Meta, LinkedIn, & X.
(Links are in the comments)

Address

11750 Katy Freeway (I-10), Ste. 840
Houston, TX
77079

Website

Alerts

Be the first to know and let us send you an email when Real Investment Advice posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.

Shortcuts

Share

Category