06/14/2026
My phone has been blowing up this week.
Calls. Texts. DMs. Everyone asking the same question: "Should I buy SpaceX?"
Here's what I've been telling people — and I'll say it publicly:
🚫 I would not buy an IPO in the first 6 months!
Here's why SpaceX specifically concerns me:
THE VALUATION PROBLEM
At $135/share and a $1.77 trillion valuation, SpaceX is priced at roughly 95x sales. That's not a growth premium, that's a speculation premium. The company posted a GAAP net loss of $4.94B in 2025 and burned another $4.28B in Q1 2026 alone. The accumulated deficit sits at $41.3B. You're paying nearly $2 trillion for a company losing billions annually.
WHO ACTUALLY WINS AT IPO
Employees with vested equity. Early investors. Investment bankers collecting fees on a $75B deal. Institutional allocations at $135 before the market even opened. By the time retail investors get in, the first-day pop has already happened — and the lockup expiration supply will be feeding the market for months.
THE INDEX FUND ANGLE (what most people miss)
Here's the part that actually affects everyone, even if you never touch SPCX:
Nasdaq changed its rules in May 2026 so top-40 companies by market cap can enter the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days. No float minimum. That means if you hold QQQ or QQQM, you'll own SpaceX automatically, whether you want to or not. Analysts estimate $15B–$30B in forced buying across Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000 trackers.
The good news: S&P 500 held firm. SPY, VOO, and IVV holders are shielded for at least 12 months, SpaceX can't enter until it posts four consecutive profitable quarters.
MY TAKE
Passive index exposure through your existing funds? That's the rational version of SpaceX in your portfolio. Buying SPCX at 95x sales on day one? That's a different bet entirely, and history says mega-cap IPOs frequently underperform the market in year one.
The space economy is real. Starlink is a legitimate business. But price matters. And right now, the price is designed to benefit the people who were there before you.
Do your own research. Talk to a licensed financial advisor. This is not financial advice.
'm Leslie Wilson, Founder & CEO of IAB Advisors. We build AI-powered financial intelligence tools for independent investors. Follow for more market education.
