Colton Flowers - Network Funding, LP - Loan Officer

Colton Flowers - Network Funding, LP - Loan Officer Helping people find the right loans for their homes. Like/follow for daily updates on rates, market Licensed to do business in Texas.

Weekly Market Update: Fed and JobsWith a wide range of major economic news, it was an extremely volatile week. The actio...
05/06/2022

Weekly Market Update: Fed and Jobs

With a wide range of major economic news, it was an extremely volatile week. The actions by the Fed were in line with investor expectations and the employment report came in very close to the consensus forecast, but mortgage rates ended the week even higher.

As expected, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 50-basis points on Wednesday and provided additional details about its plans for scaling back its massive $9 trillion portfolio of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). It will allow its bond holdings to decline by $47.5 billion per month for the next three months and then by $95.0 billion monthly after that, which was consistent with investor expectations.

The big market reaction came during Chair Powell's press conference which took place shortly after the meeting. When asked whether the Fed might implement 75-basis point rate hikes at upcoming meetings, he responded that this was not an option currently being considered, igniting a substantial rally in both stocks and bonds. On Thursday, however, investors had a change of heart and decided that ruling out larger rate hikes did not change their underlying concerns about inflation. Stocks and bonds completely reversed their gains from the prior day.

The closely watched Employment report released on Friday came in right on target. Against a consensus forecast of 400,000, the economy added 428,000 jobs in April. The largest gains were seen in the leisure and hospitality sectors. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, the lowest level since early 2020. Average hourly earnings were an impressive 5.5% higher than a year ago, roughly the same annual rate as last month.

A couple of other significant economic indicators released this week from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) remained at high levels by historical standards. The national service sector index came in at 57.1 and the national manufacturing index at 55.4. Levels above 50 indicate that the sectors are expanding.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to closely follow news on Ukraine and Covid case counts in China. They will also look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and bond portfolio reduction. Beyond that, it will be a light week for economic data with a focus on inflation. In particular, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday. CPI is a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury rose 0.10
DOW fell 200
NASDAQ fell 100

Weekly Market Update: GDP DeclinesOver the past week, the major economic data caused little reaction, and the daily move...
04/29/2022

Weekly Market Update: GDP Declines

Over the past week, the major economic data caused little reaction, and the daily movements in mortgage markets were roughly offsetting. As a result, rates ended the week little changed.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity. During the first quarter, GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.4%, well below the consensus forecast for an increase of 1.0%, and down from outsized growth of 6.9% during the fourth quarter. This was the weakest reading since the spring of 2020 when the pandemic caused a partial shutdown of the economy.

While the headline number for GDP was disappointing, it is necessary to look below the surface at the different components to evaluate the underlying strength of the economy. In this case, the shortfall was due to an unexpectedly large decline in inventories, which is viewed as a temporary factor. During the quarter, manufacturers were unable to produce enough cars, for example, to meet demand due to supply chain disruptions. As a result, fewer cars were sold, and inventories at dealers shrank. However, demand remained solid, and investors expect that future sales will ramp up as production capacity increases. In short, economic activity was simply postponed, so the reaction in financial markets was minor.

The PCE price index is the inflation indicator favored by the Fed. In March, core PCE was 5.2% higher than a year ago, down from 5.3% last month, which was the highest annual rate since 1983. For comparison, readings were below 2.0% during the first three months of 2021. One of the big questions for investors is how quickly inflation will moderate as disruptions due to the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine are resolved.

Looking ahead, the next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday and a 50-basis point increase in the federal funds rate is widely expected. Investors will look for additional guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Beyond that, the key Employment report will be released on Friday, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. The ISM national manufacturing index will come out on Monday and the ISM national service sector index on Thursday.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury fell 0.01
DOW rose 100
NASDAQ fell 100

Weekly Market Update: Home Sales FallWhile it was a light week for economic data, Fed officials continued to talk tough ...
04/23/2022

Weekly Market Update: Home Sales Fall

While it was a light week for economic data, Fed officials continued to talk tough about tightening monetary policy to fight inflation. As a result, mortgage rates climbed to the highest levels since 2010.

On Thursday, Fed Chair Powell again stressed that it is "absolutely essential" to maintain price stability for the economy to function properly. He expressed support for "front-end loading" the path to the appropriate level of monetary accommodation, meaning that it would be better to reach the target level for the federal funds rate sooner rather than later. According to Powell, a 50 basis point rate hike is an option for the next meeting on May 4, and investors now widely expect it to happen.

Higher mortgage rates were a drag on sales of existing homes in March, which posted an expected small decline from February, and were 5% lower than last year at this time. Inventory levels, down 10% from a year ago, remained a major headwind, at just a 1.7-month supply nationally. The ever-climbing median existing-home price was 15% higher than last year at this time at a record $375,300.

Home buyers desperately need more inventory in many regions, and the most recent data on housing starts was mildly encouraging. In March, overall housing starts increased slightly from February to the highest level since 2006, boosted by multi-family units. Single-family starts declined a bit from February, but remained well above the levels seen prior to the pandemic. The number of single-family units under construction rose to 811,000, the most since 2006. Builders continued to cite higher prices and shortages for land, materials, and skilled labor as obstacles to a faster pace of construction.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to closely follow news on Ukraine and will look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Beyond that, New Home Sales will be released on Tuesday. First quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, will come out on Thursday. The core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Friday. The next Fed meeting will take place on May 4.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury rose 0.10
DOW fell 100
NASDAQ fell 100

Weekly Market Update: Rising InflationInflation concerns remained the primary focus for investors this week. The latest ...
04/16/2022

Weekly Market Update: Rising Inflation

Inflation concerns remained the primary focus for investors this week. The latest readings revealed additional increases, and mortgage rates remained at the highest levels since late 2018.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a closely watched inflation indicator that looks at price changes for a broad range of goods and services. Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy components and provides a clearer picture of the longer-term trend. In March, Core CPI was 6.5% higher than a year ago, up from an annual rate of increase of 6.4% last month, and the highest level since 1982.

As the economy has steadily recovered from the pandemic, strong consumer demand, supply constraints, and surging commodity prices have pushed prices much higher for a wide range of goods and services. The conflict in Ukraine and the recent shutdowns in China due to Covid have worsened shortages for many key items. For example, airline fares were 24% higher than a year ago, and used car prices were 35% higher than last year at this time. Over time, supply chain disruptions will ease, and Fed tightening will reduce inflationary pressures, but it is not clear how quickly this will occur.

Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity, it is an important indicator of the health of the economy. In March, retail sales matched expectations with an increase of 0.5% from February and were 7% higher than a year ago. Despite rising prices, consumer spending has remained very strong so far this year.

Rising mortgage rates have taken a large toll on mortgage application volumes this year. According to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), average 30-year fixed rates are more than 1.75% higher than a year ago. Purchase applications are down 6% from last year at this time, while applications to refinance a loan have plunged a shocking 62% from one year ago. The MBA now forecasts that total mortgage originations this year will be 35% lower than last year due to the massive decline in refinances.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to closely follow news on Ukraine and will look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Beyond that, it will be a light week for economic data with a focus on the housing sector. Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday and Existing Home Sales on Wednesday.

Weekly Market Update: Fed GuidanceInvestors were focused on Fed policy this week. The Fed plans to reduce its massive po...
04/10/2022

Weekly Market Update: Fed Guidance

Investors were focused on Fed policy this week. The Fed plans to reduce its massive portfolio of bonds more quickly than expected, which was negative for mortgage rates, and they rose to the highest levels since late 2018.

To review, the Fed loosens monetary policy to boost the economy during periods of weakness, such as after the start of the pandemic. By contrast, when the economy exceeds a certain capacity, the demand for goods and services becomes so strong that prices must rise to balance supply and demand, eventually forcing the Fed to tighten. The challenge is to implement the optimal level of tightening which will restrain economic growth just the right amount to bring down inflation without causing an undesirable recession.

Adjusting the federal funds rate and the size of the bond portfolio are the two primary tools used by the Fed to achieve its goals. Two weeks ago, the Fed provided fairly precise guidance on the projected pace of rate hikes. This week, the plans for the bond portfolio were revealed. In short, officials expressed more concern about upside risks to inflation than downside risks to economic growth.

The minutes from the March 16 Fed meeting released on Wednesday indicated that the Fed plans to allow its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to decrease by up to $95 billion per month, which was higher than anticipated, likely beginning in May. The split will be $60 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS, phased in over three months. While these quantities are quite large on a historical basis, they must be viewed in the context of nine trillion dollars of total bond holdings, double the levels held prior to the pandemic. Since mortgage rates are largely based on MBS prices, the reduced outlook for Fed demand for MBS caused rates to move higher.

The most significant economic indicator released this week from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) remained at a high level by historical standards. The national service sector index for March rose to 58.3. Levels above 50 indicate that the sector is expanding, and readings above 60 are rare. Investors are watching to see how much consumer spending is shifting from goods to services.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to closely follow news on Ukraine and will look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Beyond that, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Tuesday. CPI is a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services. Retail Sales will come out on Thursday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key indicator of growth.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury rose 0.270
DOW fell 100
NASDAQ fell 300

Weekly Market Update: Unemployment Rate FallsVolatility remained high for mortgage markets this week. The major labor ma...
04/01/2022

Weekly Market Update: Unemployment Rate Falls

Volatility remained high for mortgage markets this week. The major labor market and inflation data came in very close to the expected levels, however, and the daily movements were roughly offsetting. According to the weekly survey from Freddie Mac, mortgage rates are roughly 1.5% higher than they were one year ago, at the highest level since December 2018.

The closely watched Employment report released on Friday came in right on target. Against a consensus forecast of 475,000, the economy gained 431,000 jobs in February, and revisions added 95,000 to the results from prior months. The unemployment rate fell from 3.8% to 3.6%, the lowest level since early 2020. Average hourly earnings were an impressive 5.6% higher than a year ago, up from an annual rate of 5.2% last month.

The PCE price index is the inflation indicator favored by the Fed. In February, core PCE was 5.4% higher than a year ago, up from 5.2% last month and the highest annual rate since 1983. For comparison, readings were below 2.0% during the first three months of 2021. One of the big questions for investors is how quickly inflation will moderate as pandemic-related disruptions are resolved.

Another significant economic indicator released this week from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) remained at a high level by historical standards. The national manufacturing sector index for March came in at 57.1. Levels above 50 indicate that the sector is expanding, and readings above 60 are rare.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to closely follow news on Ukraine and will look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Beyond that, it will be a very light week for economic data. The biggest release will be the ISM national service sector index on Tuesday.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury fell 0.05
DOW fell 200
NASDAQ rose 100

Weekly Market Update: Powell Surprises InvestorsThe shockingly swift increase in mortgage rates continued this week, rea...
03/26/2022

Weekly Market Update: Powell Surprises Investors

The shockingly swift increase in mortgage rates continued this week, reaching the highest levels since early 2019. The cause is clear. Inflation has climbed to the highest levels in decades, and the Fed has started to tighten monetary policy to bring inflation back down.

After indicating for months that they must fight inflation by reversing the extremely accommodative policy measures put in place to boost the economy during the pandemic, the Fed began the process by raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its last meeting on March 16. The main questions going forward now are how quickly and how much the Fed will raise rates. Since the start of the year, investors have shifted from pricing in roughly three rate hikes of 25 basis points each in 2022 up to the equivalent of eight by year end, in increments of either 25 or 50 basis points at each meeting.

In a speech on Monday just days after the meeting, Fed Chair Powell caught investors off guard by emphasizing the need to more aggressively fight inflation. Powell pledged to "take the necessary steps" to get inflation under control even if it means raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a future meeting. He explained that the timing is uncertain for relief from the resolution of supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, and the conflict in Ukraine and the recent Covid outbreaks in China will increase inflationary pressures.

Powell also directly addressed investor concerns that the Fed might tighten policy too much, slowing the economy more than necessary to bring down inflation. To recap, the Fed loosens monetary policy to boost the economy during periods of weakness, such as after the start of the pandemic. By contrast, when the economy exceeds a certain capacity, the demand for goods and services becomes so strong that prices must rise to balance supply and demand, eventually forcing the Fed to tighten. The pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine have made inflation even worse than usual, since manufacturing has been heavily constrained and the supply of key commodities is shrinking. Investors use the term "soft landing" to describe implementing the optimal level of tightening which will restrain economic growth just the right amount to bring down inflation without causing an undesirable recession. Powell expressed optimism that the Fed could achieve a reasonably soft landing, and its level of success will heavily influence future mortgage rates.

Sales of new homes declined for the second straight month in February, dropping 2% from January to an annualized rate of 772,000, below the consensus forecast of 810,000. The median new-home price was 11% higher than last year at this time at $400,600. Inventory levels unexpectedly rose to 407,000 units, the highest level since 2008, but over 90% of those homes were either under construction or not yet started.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to closely follow news on Ukraine and will look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Beyond that, the core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will come out on Thursday. The key Employment report will be released on Friday, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury rose 0.33
DOW rose 100
NASDAQ rose 200

Weekly Market Update: Fed TightensWhile investors continued to keep a close eye on the conflict in Ukraine this week, th...
03/19/2022

Weekly Market Update: Fed Tightens

While investors continued to keep a close eye on the conflict in Ukraine this week, the primary influence on mortgage markets was growing concern about rising inflation and its effect on future Fed policy. At its meeting on Wednesday, the Fed indicated that it plans to tighten monetary policy more than expected, and mortgage rates ended the week higher.

Fed officials have been indicating for months that they must fight inflation by reversing the extremely accommodative policy measures put in place to boost the economy during the pandemic. As expected, the Fed began the process by raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the first hike since 2018. This caught no one by surprise, and investors instead focused on the projections from officials for the future path of the fed funds rate. On average, officials forecasted that there will be six additional 25 basis point rate increases by the end of the year, which was at the high end of investor expectations and a much faster pace than anticipated just a few months ago. Investors also were seeking precise guidance on the plans for reducing the Fed's massive holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), but none was provided except to say that the framework may be finalized at the next meeting in May. During his press conference following the meeting, Chair Powell emphasized that future policy would be adjusted based on incoming economic data.

Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity, it is an important indicator of the health of the economy. In February, retail sales rose a weaker than expected 0.3% from January. However, this shortfall was more than offset when the enormous increase of 3.8% seen in January was revised to an even more impressive monthly gain of 4.9%. Despite rising prices, consumer spending has been extremely strong so far this year.

Sales of existing homes were a bit disappointing in February, dropping 7% from January. Inventory levels were down 16% from a year ago, at just a 1.7-month supply nationally, well below the 6-month supply which is considered a healthy balance between buyers and sellers, and very close to the record low level. The ever-climbing median existing-home price was 15% higher than last year at this time at $357,300.

With the shortage of available homes in many areas, investors have been closely watching the monthly reports on housing starts, and the most recent data contained encouraging news. In February, housing starts unexpectedly increased 7% from January to the highest level since 2006. Higher prices and shortages for land, materials, and skilled labor remained obstacles to a faster pace of construction.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to closely follow news on Ukraine and will look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Beyond that, it will be a light week for economic data. New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic activity, will come out on Thursday.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury rose 0.15
DOW rose 1,400
NASDAQ rose 800

Weekly Market Update: Rising InflationHeadlines about the conflict in Ukraine continued to cause volatility in mortgage ...
03/11/2022

Weekly Market Update: Rising Inflation

Headlines about the conflict in Ukraine continued to cause volatility in mortgage markets this week, but their net impact was roughly neutral. Instead, the primary influence was growing concern about rising inflation, and mortgage rates ended the week higher.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a closely watched inflation indicator that looks at price changes for a broad range of goods and services. Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy components and provides a clearer picture of the longer-term trend. In February, Core CPI was 6.4% higher than a year ago, up from an annual rate of increase of 6.0% last month, and the highest level since 1982.

There are many reasons why the annual core inflation rate has jumped from the readings below 2.0% seen early in 2021, including a tight labor market, strong consumer demand for goods, and supply chain disruptions. Shortages for many items have caused enormous cost increases, such as used car prices which are 41% higher than a year ago. Fed officials and economists are divided about how much the recent spike in inflation will subside as temporary factors caused by the pandemic are resolved.

The JOLTS report measures job openings and labor turnover rates, and the latest data indicated that the labor market remains very tight. At the end of January, there were a massive 11.3 million job openings, down slightly from last month's record high, and over 4 million more than in January 2020 prior to the pandemic. A high level of job openings reflects a strong labor market, as companies struggle to hire enough workers with the necessary skills. A very large number of employees also willingly left their jobs in January. This is viewed as a sign of labor market strength as well, since people usually quit only if they expect that they can find better jobs.

Faced with skyrocketing prices and the conflict in Ukraine, the European Central Bank (ECB) had to make a very difficult decision at its meeting on Thursday. It chose to prioritize lower inflation over economic growth by announcing that it plans to end its bond purchase program in the third quarter, which was earlier than expected. ECB President Lagarde acknowledged that the conflict in Ukraine will have "a material impact on economic activity," but had little choice in tightening monetary policy to help bring down inflation.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to closely follow news on Ukraine. Beyond that, the next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday. Investors widely expect a 25 basis point rate increase and will look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Retail Sales also will be released on Wednesday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key indicator of growth. Housing Starts will come out on Thursday.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury rose .250
DOW fell 400
NASDAQ fell 200

Weekly Market Update: Ukraine, Fed, and Labor MarketIt was another volatile week for mortgage markets, mostly due to the...
03/06/2022

Weekly Market Update: Ukraine, Fed, and Labor Market

It was another volatile week for mortgage markets, mostly due to the steady stream of headlines about the intensifying conflict in Ukraine. Key testimony from Fed Chair Powell and important labor market data had a much smaller impact. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower.

In response to geopolitical events such as the conflict in Ukraine, investors generally seek to reduce the level of risk in their portfolios. This week, news which indicated greater Russian military action caused investors to shift from stocks to relatively safer assets such as bonds. This increased demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which was favorable for mortgage rates.

On Wednesday, highly anticipated testimony to Congress from Chair Powell helped shape the investor outlook for future Fed policy. While some investors thought that a 50 basis point rate hike was still a possibility, Powell clearly showed support for raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the next meeting on March 16 and expects the action to be followed by a series of additional 25 basis point increases. He did leave open the possibility of larger rate hikes in the future if inflation does not decline at the anticipated pace. In addition, he said that the massive balance sheet holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will be reduced "in a predictable manner." Asked about the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the US economy, he replied that it is "highly uncertain."

The closely watched Employment report released on Friday revealed strong job gains but weaker than expected wage growth. Against a consensus forecast of 400,000, the economy gained 678,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.0% to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings were 5.1% higher than a year ago, down from an annual rate of 5.5% last month, and far below the consensus forecast of 5.8%.

A couple of other significant economic indicators released this week from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) remained at high levels by historical standards. The national service sector index came in at 56.5 and the national manufacturing index at 58.6. Levels above 50 indicate that the sectors are expanding, and readings above 60 are rare.

Looking ahead, investors will closely follow news on Ukraine and will look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Beyond that, the JOLTS report, which measures job openings and labor turnover rates, will come out on Wednesday. The next European Central Bank meeting will take place on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) also will be released on Thursday. CPI is a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury fell 0.26
DOW fell 700
NASDAQ fell 400

Weekly Market Update: Higher InflationIt was another volatile week for mortgage markets, mostly due to the events in Ukr...
02/25/2022

Weekly Market Update: Higher Inflation

It was another volatile week for mortgage markets, mostly due to the events in Ukraine. The daily movements were offsetting, however, and mortgage rates ended the week with little change, remaining at the highest levels since the middle of 2019.

Headlines about Ukraine continued to influence mortgage rates this week, especially the invasion on Thursday. When tensions increased, investors reduced risk by shifting from stocks to relatively safer assets such as bonds. This increased demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which was favorable for mortgage rates. News which hinted at reduced tensions had the opposite effect.

The PCE price index is the inflation indicator favored by the Fed. In January, core PCE was 5.2% higher than a year ago, up from 4.9% last month and the highest annual rate since 1983. For comparison, readings were below 2.0% during the first three months of 2021. One of the big questions for investors is how quickly inflation will moderate as pandemic-related disruptions are resolved.

Sales of new homes fell 5% in January to an annualized rate of 806,000, which was close to the consensus forecast. New home sales peaked at a rate of 993,000 units in January of last year, which was the highest level since 2006. The median new home price was 13% higher than last year at this time at $423,300. The backlog of new homes approved for construction but not yet started rose to a record high of 26%. Higher prices and shortages for key inputs such as lumber and appliances restrained the pace of building.

Looking ahead, investors will closely follow news on Ukraine and will look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Beyond that, the key Employment report will be released on Friday, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. The ISM national manufacturing index will come out on Tuesday and the ISM national service sector index on Thursday.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury rose 0.05
DOW fell 500
NASDAQ fell 100

Weekly Market Update: Consumer Spending SurgesIt was a volatile week for mortgage markets, mostly due to shifting expect...
02/18/2022

Weekly Market Update: Consumer Spending Surges

It was a volatile week for mortgage markets, mostly due to shifting expectations for Russian military action in Ukraine. The daily movements were offsetting, however, and mortgage rates ended the week with little change, remaining at the highest levels since the middle of 2019.

In response to geopolitical events such as a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, investors generally seek to reduce the level of risk in their portfolios. This week, news which indicated a greater chance of Russian military action caused investors to shift from stocks to relatively safer assets such as bonds. This increased demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which was favorable for mortgage rates. News which hinted at reduced tensions had the opposite effect.

Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity, it is an important indicator of the health of the economy. In January, retail sales jumped 3.8% from December, far above the consensus forecast for an increase of 2.0%. The gains were seen in a broad-based range of products, particularly in vehicles, furniture, and building materials.

After unexpectedly dropping in December, sales of existing homes jumped 7% in January, far above the consensus forecast for just a slight increase. Inventory levels in January were down 17% from a year ago, at just a 1.6-month supply nationally, well below the 6-month supply which is considered a healthy balance between buyers and sellers, and a record low level. The median existing-home price was 15% higher than last year at this time at $350,300.

With the shortage of available homes in many areas, investors have been closely watching the monthly reports on housing starts, and the most recent data contained mixed results. In January, housing starts unexpectedly decreased 4% from December. However, building permits, a leading indicator of future activity, unexpectedly beat the consensus forecast, rising to the highest level since 2006. Higher prices and shortages for land, materials, and skilled labor remained obstacles to a faster pace of construction.

Looking ahead, investors will closely follow news on Ukraine and will look for additional Fed guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Beyond that, New Home Sales will be released on Thursday. The core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Friday. Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury fell 0.09
DOW fell 500
NASDAQ fell 200

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