03/27/2026
Everyone loves a "safe haven" when markets get scary. But not everything that seems safe actually is.
In this week's note, Jon uses gold as an example. Gold started 2024 at around $2,000 an ounce. By the time military strikes began in Iran last month, it had run all the way to $5,300 — a 150% jump in two years. Nothing about the metal changed. It still weighs the same. It still shines the same. The only thing that changed was how much people were willing to pay for it.
And that's exactly where the risk was hiding.
As Howard Marks has written, the most dangerous thing you can do is buy something at the peak of its popularity. When everyone agrees something is safe, the price already reflects that opinion — and there are no new buyers left to push it higher.
Since the war started, gold has fallen roughly 20% in three weeks.
None of this means gold has no place in a portfolio. Diversification matters. But when someone calls something a "safe haven" after it has already doubled in price, what they really mean is: you'd be a late arrival to a very crowded trade.
The price is the risk. It always has been.
👉 Read this week's full note here: https://www.swanburg.com/p/the-price-is-the-risk
