Elizabeth Bermudez, NMLS# 935497

03/16/2026

03/24/2025

Feliz Aniversario en el Paraiso Papi adorado! Extranandote mucho pero confiada Que estas en Paz y Lleno de amor Infinito❤️🙏❤️🙏

12/29/2023

Weekly Market Update: Last One of 2023!

This week was very quiet and rates are basically flat, as the markets settle in for what is sure to be an eventful 2024. Although investors are hopeful that the Fed can guide the market in for a soft landing next year and avoid a recession in its bid to reign in inflation, a certain level of uncertainty remains...

The bond market will close early today and remain closed Monday in honor of the New Year holiday. Jobs will come front and center the first week of the year with U.S. Job openings, initial jobless claims, ADP, and the unemployment report all squeezed into a shortened first week.

Many investors remain hopeful that Fed rate cuts may come as early as March, but some Fed officials have hinted that it could be May before we see a cut. Either way, 2023 was one for the books and 2024 is looking brighter.

Happy New Year!

12/22/2023

Weekly Market Update: Inflation Moderates

With little significant economic news, mortgage markets were relatively quiet this week. The major inflation data was a bit weaker than expected, but its impact was minor, and rates ended the week nearly unchanged.

The PCE price index is the inflation indicator favored by the Fed. In November, core PCE, which excludes food and energy to reduce short-term volatility, was up 3.2% from a year ago, a little below the consensus forecast. This was down from an annual rate of 3.4% last month and the lowest level since March 2021. While still moving in the right direction, it remains above the Fed's target of 2.0%.

After falling to the slowest pace since 2010 last month, sales of existing homes in November rose a little from October but still were 7% lower than last year at this time. Inventory levels remain stuck near historic lows, standing at just a 3.5-month supply nationally, far below the 6-month supply typical in a balanced market. The median existing-home price of $387,600 was 4% higher than last year at this time. Since average mortgage rates in December have been significantly lower than in November, sales activity is likely to show greater improvement in the next report.

Additional inventory of homes continues to be badly needed in many areas, and the latest data was encouraging. In November, single-family housing starts increased 18% from October to the highest level since April 2022 and were 42% higher than a year ago. Single-family building permits, a leading indicator of future construction, rose to the best level since May 2022. In addition, a separate survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions from the NAHB jumped from 34 to 37, snapping a four-month decline.

Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy. No major economic reports will be released during the final week of the year. The ISM national manufacturing index will come out on January 3 and the national services index on January 5. The key Employment report also will be released on January 5, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be some of the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Mortgage markets will close early on December 22 and December 29. The next fed meeting will be on Jan 30-31.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury flat 0.00
DOW rose 200
NASDAQ rose 200

12/16/2023

Weekly Market Updat:e Favorable Fed Forecasts

A pivot toward looser monetary policy by the Fed was highly favorable for mortgage markets this week. In addition, the major inflation data was a bit weaker than expected, and mortgage rates dropped to the lowest levels since May.

As expected, the Fed made no change in the federal funds rate on Wednesday, and the statement released after the meeting was very similar to the prior one. The key information was the "dot plot" forecasts from officials. While investors have been pricing in three or four rate cuts next year, officials projected just one in their last set of forecasts three months ago, and recent comments have been mixed on the subject. Officials in fact did shift significantly closer to the outlook of investors, as they now anticipate three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. In addition, Chair Powell supported the latest outlook during his press conference, and mortgage rates declined sharply on the prospect of looser monetary policy.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely followed inflation indicators. Mostly due to lower energy prices, CPI in November was 3.1% higher than a year ago, down from an annual rate of increase of 3.2% last month. To reduce short-term volatility and get a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, investors often prefer to look at core CPI, which excludes the food and energy components. Core CPI was 4.0% higher than a year ago, the same annual rate as last month, the lowest level since September 2021.

While the core CPI annual rate has fallen from a peak of 6.6% in September 2022, it remains far above the readings around 2.0% seen early in 2021, which is the stated target level of the Fed. Progress in the battle against inflation has been slow due to persistently high prices in certain areas, but this month most of those individual components of the CPI report revealed favorable news. Shelter (housing) costs remained elevated and again were responsible for the largest portion of the increase, but they are easing. Categories which posted large monthly declines included lodging away from home, apparel, and household furnishings.

Despite numerous headwinds such as higher prices and credit card rates, consumer spending has continued to outperform the forecasts of economists. In November, retail sales rose 0.3% from October, well above the consensus for a slight decline. Gains were seen across a wide range of categories, particularly in restaurants/bars, hobby stores, and sporting goods. Retail sales, which are not adjusted for inflation, were 4.1% higher than a year ago, exceeding the increase in prices over that period.

Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy. For economic reports, Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday. Existing Home Sales will come out on Wednesday and New Home Sales on Friday. Personal Income and the PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, also will be released on Friday.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury fell 0.33
DOW rose 900
NASDAQ rose 400

12/08/2023

Weekly Market Update: Mixed Labor Market Data

The major economic data released this week revealed mixed results. This caused some volatility during the week, but mortgage rates ended with little change.

In November, the economy added 199,000 jobs, above the consensus forecast of 180,000, but the results for prior months were revised lower by 35,000. The largest gains were seen in health care, government, and leisure/hospitality, while the retail sector unexpectedly posted a significant decline.

The other major components of the Employment report exceeded expectations. The unemployment rate declined from 3.9% to 3.7%, below the consensus for a flat reading. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% from October, slightly above the consensus forecast. Earnings were 4.0% higher than a year ago, the same annual rate of increase as last month and the lowest level since June 2021. Fed officials keep a close eye on wage growth because it generally raises future inflationary pressures.

While the Employment report was a bit stronger than expected overall, the JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover rates) data suggested looser conditions in the labor market. At the end of October, there were 8.7 million job openings, far below the consensus forecast of 9.3 million and the lowest level since March 2021. This equates to just 1.3 openings for each available worker, down from around 2.0 only a few months ago, nearly in line with the levels seen prior to the pandemic. In addition, the "quits" rate was just 2.3%, down from about 3.0% at the end of 2021. Since people generally are more willing to voluntarily leave their jobs when they are optimistic about finding a better one, a lower quits rate is consistent with a looser labor market. Similarly, a lower number of openings suggests that companies face less pressure to raise wages in order to hire enough workers, so this positive news on inflation also was favorable for mortgage rates.

Lower rates have jumpstarted applications for home refinancing, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Applications to refinance increased 14% from last week and were 10% higher than one year ago, making the last couple of weeks the best period since 2021. Purchase applications were flat from the prior week and remain down 17% from last year at this time.

The next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday. No change in rates is expected, and investors will focus on the latest set of forecasts from officials. This will be followed by the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. For economic reports, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Tuesday. CPI is a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services. Retail Sales will come out on Thursday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key measure of the health of the economy.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury fell 0.11
DOW rose 100
NASDAQ rose 100

12/02/2023

Weekly Market Update: Focus on Fed Officials

While the major economic data released this week caused little reaction, surprisingly dovish (in favor of looser monetary policy) comments from a Fed official were favorable for mortgage markets. As a result, rates ended the week lower.

Prior to this week, Fed officials carefully avoided providing any precise guidance on the conditions or the timing of a cut in the federal funds rate. They focused instead on whether monetary policy was tight enough to bring down inflation or whether additional rate hikes would be needed. In a speech on Tuesday, however, the Fed's Christopher Waller unexpectedly deviated from this script by hinting that the Fed may be finished with rate hikes and laying out his conditions for lowering rates. He said that he is "increasingly confident" that monetary policy already is sufficiently tight to achieve their goals in bringing down inflation. In addition, he thought that it would be reasonable to see the Fed begin cutting rates if inflation continues to slow over the next three to five months, but he said that it is still "too early" to predict how likely this is to occur. Notably, rather than following his lead, officials (including Chair Powell) speaking later in the week generally shifted the discussion back to whether additional tightening will be needed. After weighing these comments, investors now anticipate that there will be multiple rate cuts next year, with the first likely taking place in May.

The PCE price index is the inflation indicator favored by the Fed. In October, core PCE, which excludes food and energy to reduce short-term volatility, was up 3.5% from a year ago, matching the consensus forecast. This was down from an annual rate of 3.7% last month and the lowest level since May 2021. While still moving in the right direction, it remains far above the Fed's target of 2.0%.

Another significant economic report released this week from the Institute of Supply Management again reflected the prolonged struggles for the manufacturing sector this year. The ISM national manufacturing index was just 46.7, close to the lowest level since May 2020. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the sector and below 50 a contraction. This was the thirteenth straight month of readings below 50 for the manufacturing sector, the longest streak in about 15 years.

In other news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced that the baseline conforming loan limit for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages in 2024 will increase 5.5% from $726,200 to $766,550. The new limit for most high-cost areas will be $1,149,825 or 150% of $766,550. This will be the eighth consecutive year of increases.

Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy. For economic reports, the ISM national services index will come out on Monday. The JOLTS report, measuring job openings and labor turnover rates, will come out on Tuesday. The key Employment report will be released on Friday, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be some of the most highly anticipated economic data of the month.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury fell 0.23
DOW rose 500
NASDAQ fell 50

11/26/2023

Weekly Market Update: Quiet Week

It was a relatively quiet week for markets, as we kick off the holiday season. Rates ended the week fairly neutral, and markets believe there's a 99.5% chance the Fed leaves it's rate target unchanged at it's upcoming December meeting.

We hope you had a happy Thanksgiving!

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury rose 0.02
DOW fell 100
NASDAQ fell 200

11/17/2023

Weekly Market Update: Inflation Moderates

Quite simply, the highly anticipated inflation data released this week was lower than expected, which was great news for mortgage markets. Consumer spending also slowed sharply from last month. As a result, rates ended the week lower.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely followed inflation indicators. Mostly due to lower energy prices, CPI was 3.2% higher than a year ago, down from an annual rate of increase of 3.7% last month. To reduce short-term volatility and get a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, investors often prefer to look at core CPI, which excludes the food and energy components. Core CPI was 4.0% higher than a year ago, down from 4.1% last month and the lowest level since September 2021.

While the core CPI annual rate has fallen from a peak of 6.6% in September 2022, it remains far above the readings around 2.0% seen early in 2021, which is the stated target level of the Fed. Progress in the battle against inflation has been slow due to persistently high prices in certain areas, but this month most of those individual components of the CPI report revealed favorable news. Shelter (housing) costs remained elevated and again were responsible for the largest portion of the increase, but they are easing. In October, they rose just 0.3%, far below their increase of 0.6% in September. Used vehicle prices were down 7.1% from a year ago, and airfares were 13% lower than last year at this time. One glaring exception to the positive news was motor vehicle insurance which was up 1.9% for the month and 19% from a year ago.

Heading into the key holiday shopping period, higher prices and credit card rates finally may be taking their toll on consumer spending. After surging 0.9% in September, retail sales fell slightly in October, the first monthly decline since March. Electronics and appliance stores posted the strongest gains, while weakness was seen at auto dealers and furniture stores.

Given the severe shortage of homes in many regions, additional inventory continues to be desperately needed, but the data released this week was mixed. In October, single-family housing starts increased 0.5% from September, and single-family building permits, a leading indicator, also rose slightly. On the flip side, a separate survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions from the NAHB unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since December 2022. It should be noted that mortgage rates were much higher during October than they are now, meaning that these reports are likely to show improvement.

Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy. For economic reports, Existing Home Sales will be released on Tuesday. After that, the schedule will be very light until Personal Income and the PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, come out on November 30. Mortgage markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury fell 0.13
DOW rose 600
NASDAQ rose 300

11/10/2023

Weekly Market Update: Quiet Week

During a very light week for economic reports, market moving events were scarce. After falling sharply last week, mortgage rates ended just slightly higher, still far below their recent peak.

Since the beginning of 2022, the Fed raised the federal funds rate at eleven consecutive meetings and then held steady at the last two. Investors are divided about whether there will be any additional rate hikes in coming months, and a speech by Chair Powell on Thursday raised expectations a bit for an even higher fed funds rate. According to Powell, a great deal of work remains to be done in fighting inflation, and officials are "not confident" that monetary policy is restrictive enough to bring it back down to their target of a 2.0% annual rate. He added that the Fed "will not hesitate" to tighten further if necessary. Powell also pointed out that improvements in supply chains have helped ease inflationary pressures, but he questioned how much additional progress would come from this source. He warned that slower economic growth likely will be needed to achieve their inflation goals.

The Department of Labor releases the total number of new claims for unemployment insurance each week, and the latest reading was just 217,000. This was down sharply from the inflated figures seen during the early months of the pandemic and a little lower than the levels which were typical during 2019. Although some other recent economic reports such as nonfarm payroll growth and job openings have suggested some easing of the tightness in the labor market, the data on jobless claims has remained consistently strong.

While higher rates have caused mortgage application volumes to fall recently to the lowest levels in 28 years, the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) revealed some improvement. Purchase applications rose 3% from the prior week but remain down 20% from last year at this time. Applications to refinance increased 2% from last week and are just 7% lower than one year ago.

Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy. For economic reports, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Tuesday. CPI is a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services. Retail Sales will come out on Wednesday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key measure of the health of the economy. Housing Starts will be released on Friday.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury rose 0.07
DOW fell 100
NASDAQ rose 100

11/03/2023

Weekly Market Update: Job Gains Fall Short

Weaker than expected economic data and a lack of surprises from the Fed initiated a large rally for mortgage markets this week. In particular, the key Employment report and the manufacturing sector data saw downside misses, causing investors to reduce their outlook for economic growth. After reaching their highest levels in over two decades, mortgage rates ended the week sharply lower.

In October, the economy added 150,000 jobs, below the consensus forecast of 180,000, and roughly half the gains seen last month. In addition, the results for prior months were revised lower. The largest gains were seen in health care, government, and construction. Manufacturing posted a decline, mostly due to the auto strikes.

The other major components of the report also were positive for mortgage markets. The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased from 3.8% to 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022. Wage growth continued to moderate. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% from August, slightly below the consensus forecast. Earnings were 4.1% higher than a year ago, down from an annual rate of increase of 4.3% last month and the lowest level since June 2021. Fed officials keep a close eye on wage growth because it generally raises future inflationary pressures.

Two other significant economic reports released this week from the Institute of Supply Management also came in below the consensus forecasts. The ISM national services sector index dropped to 51.8, the weakest level since May. The ISM national manufacturing index was just 46.7, close to the lowest level since May 2020. Since readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the sector and below 50 a contraction, this data continues to highlight the consumer preference for services over goods this year. Also notable, this was the twelfth straight month of readings below 50 for the manufacturing sector, the longest streak in about 15 years.

As expected, the Fed made no change in the federal funds rate on Wednesday, and the statement released after the meeting was very similar to the prior one. This was the second consecutive meeting that the Fed chose to hold the rate in a target range of 5.25% - 5.50%, following a series of 11 hikes since the beginning of 2022. According to Chair Powell, there is still "a long way to go" to get inflation down, but the risks of the Fed doing too much or too little going forward have become more balanced. He again emphasized that future decisions will be determined by incoming economic data. In short, investors received little new information to alter their outlook for Fed policy.

Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy. It will be an extremely light week for economic reports. The Trade Deficit will be released on Tuesday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

Weekly Change:
10yr Treasury fell 0.33
DOW rose 1,500
NASDAQ rose 700