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Spence Drake of Rock Mortgage NMLS #315581, Houston, TX (2026)

06/03/2026

Private payrolls came in stronger than expected this morning, with ADP reporting 122,000 new jobs in May versus expectations of roughly 110,000. Hiring was broad-based across industries, suggesting the labor market remains more resilient than many economists anticipated.

What does that mean for mortgage rates?

The bond market generally prefers signs of slower economic growth and softer employment. Stronger-than-expected hiring reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates and can put upward pressure on Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

The challenge for homebuyers is that mortgage rates are already hovering in the mid-6% range, with the 10-year Treasury around 4.4%-4.5%. Most forecasts still call for rates to gradually improve over time, but the path lower is proving slower than many expected.

The next major market-moving event is Friday’s official Non-Farm Payrolls report. If employment comes in stronger than expected again, rates could face additional upward pressure. If hiring disappoints, we could see some improvement in mortgage pricing.

Bottom line: Mortgage rates remain elevated, but we’re still significantly below the highs seen in 2023-2024. Waiting for dramatically lower rates may not be the winning strategy. For many buyers, purchasing now and refinancing later could make more sense than sitting on the sidelines hoping for a perfect rate environment.

If you’re considering buying, selling, or refinancing, it’s important to understand your options in today’s market rather than waiting for headlines to make the decision for you.

03/13/2026

Mortgage Rates, Inflation, and the Iran Conflict – What It Means for Homebuyers

Recent headlines about inflation and the conflict in the Middle East have caused some short-term volatility in financial markets. Mortgage rates have edged slightly higher, with the average 30-year rate moving back to about 6.11% this week, largely due to uncertainty in bond markets and rising oil prices.

However, the underlying inflation data before the conflict was actually relatively stable, with consumer prices rising modestly and annual inflation around 2.4%, close to the Federal Reserve’s long-term target.

The current pressure on rates is largely tied to energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, not broad-based inflation across the economy. Gasoline prices jumped after the conflict began, which has temporarily weighed on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Why this matters for mortgage rates:

• Mortgage rates are driven largely by bond markets and inflation expectations.
• When oil spikes due to geopolitical events, it can temporarily push inflation fears higher.
• If energy prices stabilize or the conflict eases, those pressures can fade quickly.

In fact, just before the conflict, mortgage rates had dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022, showing the broader trend toward improving affordability.

The bottom line:
Right now the market reaction appears to be more about uncertainty than fundamental inflation, and historically these kinds of geopolitical spikes tend to be temporary. If energy markets stabilize, mortgage rates could resume the downward trend we were seeing earlier this year.

If you’re considering buying or refinancing, the key is having a strategy and being ready when opportunities arise.

Spence Drake
NMLS 315581
713-303-0800

03/06/2026

Jobs Report Signals Possible Mortgage Rate Relief

The latest U.S. jobs report surprised markets, showing 92,000 jobs lost in February and unemployment rising to 4.4%. When the labor market weakens, it often signals slowing economic activity—and that can have a direct impact on mortgage rates.

Here’s why this matters for homeowners and buyers:

• Cooling job growth reduces inflation pressure, which can lead to lower bond yields.
• Mortgage rates are heavily tied to the bond market, especially the 10-year Treasury.
• When investors expect slower growth, rates often trend downward.

If this trend continues, we could see improving mortgage rate opportunities in the coming months.

What this means for you:

🏡 Buyers: Lower rates increase purchasing power and can reduce monthly payments.
💰 Homeowners: This could create an opportunity to refinance and consolidate higher-interest debt.
📊 Investors: Shifting economic data often creates strategic entry points.

Economic reports like this are one of the key indicators the mortgage market watches closely. If you want to understand how changes in rates could affect your specific situation, I’m happy to run the numbers.

Message me anytime to review your options.

03/04/2026

💳 Credit Card Debt vs. Mortgage Refinance — Quick Example

Let’s look at a common scenario.

$30,000 in credit card debt
Average credit card interest rate: ~22%

If you pay that off over 5 years, the payment is about $828/month.

Now compare that to rolling that same $30,000 into a mortgage refinance:

$30,000 added to a mortgage
Rate: 5.75% | 30-year term

Monthly payment: about $175/month

Difference:
➡️ Roughly $653/month less in monthly payments

Same debt amount — dramatically different cost structure.

For homeowners with equity, consolidating high-interest debt into a mortgage can create significant monthly cash-flow relief.

If you want to see what this could look like with your numbers, I’m happy to run a quick scenario.

Spence Drake
Mortgage Loan Originator | Rock Mortgage
NMLS # 315581

02/20/2026

U.S. GDP came in weaker than expected today (1.4% annualized for Q4). What does that mean for mortgage rates?

Slower economic growth typically reduces upward pressure on interest rates because it lowers the risk of overheating and high inflation. In simple terms:

• Slower growth → less inflation pressure
• Less inflation pressure → more room for rates to stabilize or move lower
• Bond yields often ease → mortgage rates tend to follow

This doesn’t guarantee near term drops, but it improves the odds of rate relief in the coming months and strengthens the case for future Fed cuts.

If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, this data point supports keeping a close eye on the market — opportunities may be forming.

Message me if you want a personalized rate watch or payment scenario.

01/27/2026

Mortgage Rate Update 📉 | Opportunity Window

Mortgage rates edged modestly lower again today—marking the 4th straight business day of improvement. The average top-tier 30-year fixed rate is now at its lowest level since January 16th, currently around 6.17%.

Context matters: rates were briefly lower about two weeks ago (mid-January lows ranged from 5.99%–6.07%, with intraday pricing touching 5.99% on January 9th). Still, the recent trend is constructive and worth paying attention to.

There’s been no major market volatility, and the week ahead is relatively quiet. Even the upcoming Fed announcement is largely priced in, with no rate cut expected and no surprises anticipated.

Why this matters:
Periods like this often create opportunity—especially for buyers, homeowners considering a refinance, and investors watching the next move.

If you’re a Realtor, builder, financial advisor, or a past client, this is a great time to connect your clients/prospective clients with a solid mortgage strategy. I’m happy to run scenarios, stress-test options, and help position them ahead of the curve.

👉 Send referrals my way or have them reach out directly for a quick rate and strategy review.

01/09/2026

Market Update: Jobs Report & Interest Rates

Treasury yields were little changed Friday after the latest jobs report painted a mixed—but still constructive—picture of the U.S. labor market.
The economy added 50,000 jobs in December, slightly below expectations, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4%. In short: hiring has slowed, but the labor market remains stable.
What does that mean for interest rates?
Markets continue to believe the Federal Reserve may cut rates later this year, potentially as early as spring, even though expectations for an April cut cooled slightly.

Why this matters for homebuyers and homeowners:

Lower Treasury yields and potential Fed cuts tend to put downward pressure on mortgage rates over time.
Adding to the conversation, investors are also watching news that President Trump has instructed officials to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, a move aimed at helping reduce mortgage rates and monthly payments.

Bottom line:

The data continues to support a gradual shift toward lower rates in 2026, creating opportunities for both buyers and homeowners who are planning ahead.

If you want to talk strategy—buying, refinancing, or timing the market—feel free to reach out.

01/05/2026

After 27 years in mortgage and real estate, one thing never changes: markets move fast, and opportunities show up when you’re paying attention.

By 10am ET today, trading volume had already surpassed December 23rd and 26th (both full trading days)—a clear sign the market is waking up from holiday mode.

Over the past three weeks, bonds held tightly in a sideways range, with 10-year yields between 4.10%–4.20%. That kind of consolidation often sets the stage for a meaningful move, and this week increases the odds—especially with Friday’s jobs report looming.

Before that, Wednesday’s JOLTS and ISM reports will be closely watched. Today’s ISM Manufacturing data came in a bit softer, but markets haven’t reacted much yet. For those wondering, both stocks and bonds have largely ignored the weekend news out of Venezuela.

Why does this matter?
Because shifts like these can directly impact rates, timing, and buying power—and knowing how to navigate them is where experience matters.

If you have friends or family thinking about buying, refinancing, or just wanting clarity on what rates and markets are doing, I’d truly appreciate an introduction. Referrals mean more to me than any advertisement ever could, and I’m grateful for the trust you place in me.

As always, thank you for the continued support—it’s the relationships that make this business rewarding.

12/20/2025

🏡 Bought a home in the last 2–3 years? Read this.

A lot of homeowners assume refinancing only makes sense if rates drop below what they have now — that’s not always true.

Depending on your situation, a refinance can still help by:
✔️ Consolidating high-interest debt
✔️ Reducing monthly cash flow strain
✔️ Switching from adjustable to fixed
✔️ Using equity strategically instead of credit cards

Rates today are not the same as 2021, but smart structure can still create real savings — especially for families juggling multiple monthly obligations.

I’ve been in mortgage lending since 1998, and the best advice I can give is this:
👉 Don’t rely on headlines — rely on math.

If you want a quick, no-pressure review, I’m happy to take a look.

Spence Drake
713-303-0800
NMLS 315581

09/06/2024

Interest rates have hit the lowest levels in over a year and a half and the jobs report that came out an hour ago was worse than expected (good for rates). In addition to the current market conditions, my employer, Rock Mortgage is crushing it with our AGGRESSIVE pricing and, as always phenomenal service. Take a look at our rates below and then look at our reviews on the interwebz! Rock Mortgage Houston

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Spence Drake of Rock Mortgage NMLS #315581

06/03/2026

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