02/14/2026
Last week, Mission Financial Group partnered with First Trust Portfolios to host a client luncheon at the Halekulani Hotel. We were pleased to welcome First Trust’s Chief Economist, Brian Wesbury, for the third year in a row. Brian is widely respected & has received the Wall Street Journal’s annual award for economic forecasting. He shared a practical outlook for 2026 & emphasized an important point: this is not a market where you can simply “set it and forget it.”
After many years of very low interest rates, heavy government spending, & strong market gains, today’s environment looks different. Markets are likely to be more volatile, mistakes may be more costly, & returns may vary widely from one investment to another. In times like these, how a portfolio is built—& how it’s managed—matters more than guessing where the market is headed next.
Below are a few key takeaways we believe are worth reviewing as we head into 2026:
🔹Growth vs. Value Investing:
Investor interest is starting to move away from a small group of large technology & growth companies & toward more reasonably priced companies, dividend-paying stocks, & smaller businesses. This creates new opportunities—but it can also expose risk if a portfolio has become too concentrated without realizing it.
🔹Interest Rates, Inflation, & the Economy:
Brian explained that years of low interest rates & aggressive economic stimulus significantly increased the money supply & pushed asset prices higher. While this helped markets in the short term, it also increases the chances of bigger market swings going forward. That makes regular rebalancing & risk management more important than ever.
🔹AI & Stock Market Valuations:
Artificial intelligence will likely change many industries, but Brian cautioned that excitement around AI may be driving some stock prices too high—similar to what happened during the late 1990s tech boom. His analysis suggests the overall stock market may be priced above long-term fair value, which reinforces the importance of staying disciplined rather than chasing trends.
🔹Crypto, Gold, & Other Alternatives:
Extra liquidity in the financial system has affected alternative investments as well. Brian noted that gold & silver appear expensive compared to other commodities, while crypto prices remain highly volatile due to both speculation & structural changes in the market.
🔹What This Means for You:
Markets like this tend to reward investors who stay intentional & disciplined—those who manage risk, diversify properly, & make decisions with tax efficiency in mind. As we approach 2026, it’s a good time to review portfolios for hidden concentration, unnecessary risk, & opportunities to improve long-term stability.
If you’re open to revisiting your investment & tax strategy, now through the spring is an ideal time to walk through how your portfolio is positioned & look at ways to strengthen it for the year ahead.