11/04/2026
Back in 2009 the consensus was "we're running out of oil." Panic mode. $147 a barrel. Everyone convinced the wells were running dry.
I called it then and I'll say it again now: that was never true. There was always more oil under the ground — new fields, new tech, unconventional plays nobody was pricing in yet.
Then US shale happened. The US became the world's largest producer. Brazil, the Middle East, all found more supply than anyone predicted.
Lesson that applies way beyond energy: when everyone agrees on a scarcity story, that's usually the moment to question it. Markets overreact to short-term cycles and call it a permanent crisis. It rarely is.
Read the cycle, not the panic.