09/18/2026
The Fed hiked rates this week for the first time since 2023. Here's why it barely moved the needle.
Monday opened with markets already bracing. The Fed's two-day meeting was on deck, and the 10-Year Treasury was knocking on the door of 5% — a level it hadn't touched since 2007. The market was pricing in an 88% chance of a hike, and sticky inflation plus a resilient jobs market gave the Fed little reason to hold.
Tuesday made history. The 10-Year crested 5.04%, breaking through the psychological threshold that traders had been watching all year. Manufacturing activity softened — the Empire State index dropped 13 points from August — but it wasn't enough to change the Fed's calculus.
Wednesday confirmed it. Oil hit $104 a barrel as Iran tensions kept pushing energy prices higher. Retail sales came in strong, up 1.2% month over month for August. Import prices beat expectations. The Fed hiked.
Then Thursday's relief evaporated by Friday. Yields climbed back toward 5% as investors refocused on what the hike actually means: the Fed isn't done fighting inflation, and oil prices aren't helping.
A rate hike, $104 oil, and yields at 19-year highs — that's the environment we're in. If you have a purchase in mind, getting locked and pre-approved now is one of the few things you can actually control.
DM me and let's run your numbers. 📊
