10/12/2026
Some of my fellow mortgage professionals and real estate agents are REALLY convinced the sky is falling. And maybe they’re right!
Affordability is tough. Rates are frustrating. Buyers are scared. I’m not blind to any of it.
But here’s what puzzles me.
When did predicting doom become a substitute for helping people navigate it?
I hear it all the time.
“Aaron, you don’t understand. I KNOW what’s coming. Things are going to get ugly.”
Really? You have a crystal ball? 🔮
Did you predict a pandemic would send mortgage rates to historic lows?
Did you predict wars, inflation and global turmoil would send borrowing costs soaring when rates were 5.99% earlier this year?
Because I sure didn’t.
And after 25 years in this business, I’ve learned something.
The more confident someone is about predicting the future, the more skeptical I become.
Mortgage rates and home values are influenced by dozens of factors that even brilliant economists struggle to predict.
So I’m certainly not going to pretend I can.
And please don’t misunderstand me. I’m NOT suggesting we tell everybody it’s always a great time to buy.
That’s nonsense, too.
Optimism without honesty is salesmanship.
Honesty without hope is just discouragement.
I think our clients deserve something better.
Someone who tells them the truth, explains the risks and helps them make smart decisions with the information we have TODAY.
Sometimes that means BUY.
Sometimes WAIT.
Sometimes WALK AWAY.
And sometimes it means finding an opportunity, or creating one, that everybody else overlooked.
Our job isn’t predicting the future. It’s PREPARING PEOPLE FOR IT.
I don’t know where mortgage rates or home prices will be a year from now. And neither does anybody else.
But I DO know there are people who need good advice, smart financing and someone willing to work hard to find solutions.
That’s the dude I’m trying to be.
Still learning after 25 years. Still making mistakes. Still genuinely excited to help people.
LESS CRYSTAL BALL. MORE TODAY’S GAME PLAN. 🏡❤️