07/03/2025
The second quarter of 2025 ended on a high note as both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 reached all-time highs. The market was able to recover losses from early April and continue to push higher after the volatility of Liberation Day, tariff uncertainty, continued geopolitical unrest and inconsistent but positive economic data informing the Federal Reserve's stance on short-term rates.
As we enter the second half of 2025, the potential for continued volatility exists. July 9th is the deadline for trade related deals to be made before reverting to Liberation Day levels. With deals announced with the UK, China and now Vietnam, the market is acting as if more deals with major trading partners will be announced before the deadline (this has already been hinted at, but countries have not been announced). Tariff policy clarity would provide a tailwind for equities, but if agreements cannot be reached, increased volatility and significant downside risk to the equity market could be the end result. Global tensions will also play a major role in how the second half of the year unfolds. With US/Iranian tensions calming down and a potential ceasefire in Israel/Gaza, oil prices have given up much of their gains, which is good for the consumer going forward. If these events continue to improve, it would be yet another tailwind for equity markets.
Finally, the direction of interest rates remains the largest topic of conversation. The Federal Reserve continued to maintain a "wait and see" approach to any future interest rate cuts and the bond market exhibited movements in both directions trying to anticipate the timing and number of future interest rate decisions. The fear of tariff induced inflation continues to dampen expectations of a rate cut in the near term as economic data has been relatively good. The Federal Reserve is trying to balance the continued strength of a resilient US economy/labor market to date with inflation expectations made less clear by the ever-changing tariff policy debate. Come July 9th, if more trade agreements are announced and economic data continues to exhibit strength, expectations are for one, if not two, rate cuts by the end of the year. As you can see, there are many moving parts to gauge over the next six months.
As always, we are here to address any concerns you may have and thank you for your continued trust in us. Feel free to call us if you have any questions and we wish you and your families a blessed 4th of July!