03/06/2026
I have been receiving A LOT of questions about mortgage rates and how they are trending.
This morning I wrote a market update for some of our key business partners.
While the below market update is more depth than what might be helpful for many, I'm including it here for those that want to gain a deeper understanding on how current events are influencing mortgage pricing.
PLEASE REACH OUT DIRECTLY TO ME if you’re considering purchasing or refinancing a home soon.
I'm happy to provide specific perspective on your potential scenario.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobs report released today showing there were 92,000 job losses for the month of February. This was a much weaker report than expected and increases the likelihood of future Fed Funds rate cuts. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%.
The jobs data for December and January were revised lower by a combined 69,000 jobs. December was revised from positive 50,000 to negative 17,000 and January was revised lower by 4,000 to 126,000.
The labor market is clearly showing signs of weakness with a three-month average job gain of only 6,000 per month, a six month average of -1,000 per month and twelve month average of 13,000.
Picture one is a graph of job creation over the last five years
While a weak jobs report is typically good for mortgage pricing, the huge spike in oil prices is giving the bond markets pause.
Oil prices (picture 2) are up $20 per barrel in the last week and $10 per barrel today! Oil is a vital resource used in nearly every step of production and supply chains. Rising oil prices creates increased inflation. Inflation is the enemy of bond prices and limits the ability for the Fed to cut rates.
A bad jobs report would normally lead to improving mortgage pricing, yet sky rocketing oil prices are preventing mortgage pricing improvements.
The Fed has a dual mandate to support price stability (inflation target of around 2% per year) and maximum employment. A bad jobs report encourages the Fed to cut rates to support the labor market; however, rising oil prices creates extra inflation which discourages the Fed cutting short term rates.
Technical Perspective (picture 3): Mortgage bonds are currently sitting right at the 100-day moving average and have recovered this morning’s losses. If Mortgage Back Securities pricing can close at or above the 100-day moving average, it will be beneficial for potentially limiting further erosion in mortgage pricing. If MBS pricing closes below the 100-day moving average, it would set the stage for potentially further price worsening in the short term.
Mortgage rates move inversely to mortgage back security values. Red candles represent the cost for mortgage rates increasing while green indicates mortgage pricing improvements.
Once geopolitical tensions cool, there is reason to believe mortgage rates will improve, but for now, oil is dominating the market action.
