Dan Conner NMLS #275929

08/28/2026

Recent Treasury actions are designed to calm the bond market and support lower borrowing costs, but global uncertainty and inflation concerns continue to create challenges. So what's next for buyers?

08/23/2026

5.0 star review received on Experience.com for Dan Conner by Austin R - Would never go to any other broker

Click to see all 59 reviews of Guild Mortgage - Dan Conner, Loan Officer

08/21/2026

The national housing story isn't as straightforward as the headlines might make it seem.

Beneath the surface, some markets are moving forward, others are losing momentum, and buyer behavior continues to evolve.

08/20/2026

Yesterday afternoon, financial markets initially reacted positively to the Treasury Department's announcement that it would significantly expand its program of repurchasing older Treasury securities while increasing its reliance on short-term debt issuance to finance those purchases.
In essence, the Treasury is stepping in as a buyer of longer-dated bonds at a time when both foreign and domestic demand has softened. By repurchasing outstanding long-term Treasuries and funding those purchases with newly issued short-term securities, the Treasury hopes to support bond prices and, in turn, place downward pressure on long-term interest rates. Since bond prices and yields move inversely, increased buying activity can help lower yields on longer-term debt, potentially benefiting products such as 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
However, the market rally proved to be short-lived. This morning, bond markets have largely given back those gains and returned to levels seen before yesterday's Treasury announcement.
A major factor behind today's pullback appears to be renewed geopolitical concerns. Reports out of Washington indicate that President Trump plans to increase economic pressure on Iran, stating that any country providing assistance to Iran could face significant economic consequences. While few specifics were provided, the announcement helped push oil prices to their highest levels in nearly four weeks. Rising energy prices have renewed concerns that inflation could remain elevated for longer than previously expected.
Yesterday also brought the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from last month's policy meeting. The minutes contained few surprises and largely reinforced what market participants already understood. Federal Reserve officials continue to indicate that they are prepared to raise interest rates if inflation remains stubbornly high. At the same time, most policymakers still expect inflation to gradually moderate over the coming months, reducing the need for additional tightening if that trend continues.
Turning to today's economic data, weekly initial jobless claims came in slightly better than expected. Economists had forecast approximately 210,000 new claims, while the actual figure was 206,000. The data continues to point toward a relatively stable labor market. However, continuing claims, which measure the number of individuals currently receiving unemployment benefits, increased by 18,000 to 1.799 million, suggesting that some displaced workers may be taking longer to find new employment.
The 10-year Treasury yield opened the day at 4.639% and has since moved higher, currently trading around 4.702%.

This Market Update and similar such communications are for informational purposes only and are based on publicly available information. These materials are general communications, which are not impartial, and are provided solely for discussion purposes, and not in connection with any product or service offering. The opinions and views expressed in this Market Update are as of the date of this communication and are subject to change. Any forward-looking views and statements contained in this Market Update are based on current estimates or expectations of future events or results. Actual results may differ materially from those described in this Market Update. The views expressed in this communication should not be attributed to Guild Mortgage Company as a whole and may not be reflected in the strategies and products offered by Guild Mortgage Company.

08/13/2026

5.0 star review received on Experience.com for Dan Conner by Jack H - Dan was always available to answer questions.

Click to see all 58 reviews of Guild Mortgage - Dan Conner, Loan Officer

08/07/2026

Same country. Same city. Completely different housing markets.

Remember: National housing trends make headlines, but local markets create opportunities. 🏡

07/17/2026

Gen Z isn’t waiting…they’re buying. Just last quarter, they accounted for 20% of all rate locks and nearly one-third of first-time buyers.

07/13/2026

Mortgage rates are worse today due to the increased hostilities in the Persian Gulf. Iran continues to attack civilian cargo ships and U.S. military bases with the U.S. attacking Iranian military facilities and imposing a renewed blockade on all ships going to Iran. Oil prices are up $3.10 per barrel today with West Texas Intermediate crude oil at $74.4 per barrel.

Higher oil prices lead to higher consumer and business costs worldwide, increasing inflation fears and pushing up interest rates worldwide. The yield on 10-year Treasury bond briefly went above 4.60% earlier this morning and is presently at 4.595%.

Tomorrow the markets will see the June CPI inflation reports, with the headline CPI inflation rate expected to decline to 3.8%, down from 4.2% in May. The Core CPI which strips out food and energy prices is expected to show 2.8% for June, down slightly from 2.9% in May. The monthly increase in Core CPI is expected to show 0.2% for June, the same as in May. This would be good news if we can see many consecutive months of monthly increases at 0.2%, as this would translate to a 2.4% annual, which is headed towards the Fed’s goal of 2.00% core inflation.

After last week’s light calendar of scheduled economic reports, we will see several this week that will give updates to the overall health of the economy. Key reports include the Retail Sales report on Thursday, expected to show a 0.2% increase in June, below the May 0.9% increase, the Friday release of the Industrial Production for June, expected to show a 0.2% increase, up from the 0.1% in May, and the Friday release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, expected to show a 51.0 reading for July, up from the 49.5 in June.

Developments in the Middle East and how they impact oil prices will likely be the top impacting force this week on mortgage rates. A surprise in tomorrow’s CPI inflation report to the low side would result in a downward pressure on mortgage rates and a surprise to the upside would push mortgage rates higher.

Persian Gulf Tensions. The renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf remain the top issue impacting the bond markets. Higher oil prices lead to higher costs for many raw materials and higher costs to produce many goods, as well as higher transportation costs for consumers and businesses, all of which push up inflation pressures.

In addition to oil prices, the bond markets have also been worried about other factors possibly driving up inflation rates in the economy, evidenced by CPI and PCE inflation reports remaining stubbornly high prior to the war with Iran when oil prices were lower. If tomorrow’s CPI report, particularly the monthly increase in CPI report, comes out lower than expected, this would give the bond markets comfort that non-oil related inflation pressures may be subsiding in the economy. The bond markets already know that that the current spike up in oil prices in July will not show up in tomorrow’s June report, so the markets are mostly looking to see any clues about non-oil related inflation pressures in tomorrow’s report.

The bond market investors who buy 10-year Treasury bonds or MBS bonds issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae are the investors who determine the daily changes in mortgage interest rates. These investors care about where inflation rates will be over the next 10-years, and what systemic factors will drive long term inflation rates, in addition to factors such as the Iran war that will drive short term inflation rates.

A surprise drop in the June CPI report tomorrow would be very positive for the bond market’s focus on longer term systemic factors other than oil prices that might drive longer term inflation levels.

Floating this Market? Absolutely no human on the planet can predict what will happen next, good or bad, in the Persian Gulf. Anyone who advises anybody to float this market, in my opinion, is giving very risky advice. Nobody can predict which direction the bond market will go in the next days or weeks, beyond a random 50/50 guess. A borrower who decides to float is simply taking a daily 50/50 gamble in hopes of getting a better rate sheet, with a very real possibility of waking up one day and rate sheets are materially worse than if they had locked the day before.

The Fed. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be in two weeks with a vote on July 29 to make any changes to the Fed Funds rate. The Fed is always focused on their two diametrically opposed objectives, to maintain a healthy labor market and to maintain stable prices. As of right now the Fed is not worried about the health of the labor market and they are entirely focused on inflation, ready to pull the trigger by increasing the Fed Funds rate if that will slow down inflation rates.

Below is the current Fed Funds futures market prices as of this morning. The numbers in blue represent the market’s prediction of Fed Funds increases over the upcoming scheduled Fed meetings. The implied 11.6 increase for July is the same as saying there is a 46.4% chance of a Fed increase in July. (11.6 / 25.0 = 46.4%).

The markets are currently predicting two Fed Funds rate increases, possibly by the end of this year. If tomorrow’s CPI report comes out better than expected, these projected increase probabilities will decline. If tomorrow’s report comes out with a surprise increase in CPI, the Fed Funds futures market will increase its implied probabilities of future Fed Funds increases, with three possible increases on the table.

This Week’s Reports. This week will have several reports that will provide updates on the overall health of the U.S. economy. The top reports likely to have an impact on mortgage rates will be the CPI report tomorrow, the Retail sales on Thursday, and Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer sentiment survey.

Dan Conner
303-941-6211

This Market Update and similar such communications are for informational purposes only and are based on publicly available information. These materials are general communications, which are not impartial, and are provided solely for discussion purposes, and not in connection with any product or service offering. The opinions and views expressed in this Market Update are as of the date of this communication and are subject to change. Any forward-looking views and statements contained in this Market Update are based on current estimates or expectations of future events or results. Actual results may differ materially from those described in this Market Update. The views expressed in this communication should not be attributed to Guild Mortgage Company as a whole and may not be reflected in the strategies and products offered by Guild Mortgage Company.

07/07/2026

Mortgage rates are slightly worse today due to increased tensions in the Persian Gulf. Iran has attacked two oil tankers, causing significant damage to each ship. The viability of the peace agreement is in question, and oil prices have increased this morning with West Texas Intermediate crude oil at $72.04 up from its $67 price handle last week.

The increased tensions have pushed the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond up about seven basis points from yesterday morning. Increased oil prices lead to increased inflation pressures, which leads to upwards pressure on all interest rates, as bond investors want to earn a return on their investment above the future rate of inflation.

The only material economic report today was the International Trade deficit for May, which came out at $77.6 billion for the month, very close to the market’s prediction of a $78.5 billion number, and a clear increase from the revised $54.6 billion the prior month. If we strip services from the trade deficit and just look at manufactured goods, the monthly deficit was $105.89 billion. This means the amount of manufacturing related jobs to produce $105 billion in goods per month have shifted from the U.S. to other countries. This is not good for the long term economic health, nor the future security of our country to shift our manufacturing out of our country, but this report did not have any impact on the bond markets, as it came out almost exactly has predicted.

There are no material economic reports scheduled for tomorrow. On Thursday we will see the weekly report on new unemployment insurance claims filed the week before with the markets predicting 218,000 new claims filed, up from 215,000 the week before.

There are no scheduled economic reports this week that are likely to impact mortgage rates. Oil prices and tensions in the Persian Gulf are likely to be the drivers of rate sheet volatility this week.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is currently 4.543% which is about seven basis points higher than yesterday morning.

Persian Gulf Tensions. Iran’s attack on three ships today who did not pay a toll to Iran for going through the internationally recognized water ways of the Strait of Hormuz, have increased tensions in the Gulf and resulted in oil prices increasing today, which increases inflation fears, which pushes up worldwide interest rates.

In response, the United States revoked Iran’s general license to sell oil, impacting a critical source of revenue for Iran.

Today’s increased tensions occurred at the same time U.S. and Iranian negotiators have been trying to finalize aspects of the peace agreement related to Iran’s nuclear materials stockpiles. The markets are concerned that the peace agreement could unravel and this could lead to a resumption of hostilities in the Persian Gulf.

This is likely to be the most important issue which will impact interest rates this week.

This Week’s Reports. This will be a very quiet week of scheduled economic reports, with no reports likely to impact bond prices or interest rates. Any price volatility this week in the bond markets would likely be due to any unscheduled political news or any increase in hostilities in the Persian Gulf pushing up oil prices.

This Market Update and similar such communications are for informational purposes only and are based on publicly available information. These materials are general communications, which are not impartial, and are provided solely for discussion purposes, and not in connection with any product or service offering. The opinions and views expressed in this Market Update are as of the date of this communication and are subject to change. Any forward-looking views and statements contained in this Market Update are based on current estimates or expectations of future events or results. Actual results may differ materially from those described in this Market Update. The views expressed in this communication should not be attributed to Guild Mortgage Company as a whole and may not be reflected in the strategies and products offered by Guild Mortgage Company.

06/26/2026

The biggest takeaway from the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act isn’t what happens today…it’s what could happen next.

More supply. More financing flexibility. More pathways into the market.