11/02/2026
🌧️ WEEKLY MORTGAGE & HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | NOVEMBER 2, 2026
Happy Monday, Realtor partners! I hope everyone had a great Halloween weekend, despite the rain! 🌧️🎃 Hopefully, everyone still managed to get out, enjoy the festivities, and collect some candy. Now we're officially heading into the holiday season, and believe it or not, Thanksgiving is just around the corner!
We also have some encouraging news on the mortgage front. Mortgage rates moved lower last week, and we're starting this week with some additional improvement. The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped back below 5%, sitting around 4.88% this morning.
After several challenging weeks, it's nice to finally have some positive momentum!
📉 MORTGAGE RATE UPDATE
Mortgage bonds finished last week slightly stronger, and today's market is building on those gains.
A significant drop in oil prices has helped ease some inflation concerns and put downward pressure on Treasury yields. That's generally positive for mortgage rates.
The 10-year Treasury yield is now around 4.88%, down from the 5% range we've been watching.
The encouraging part is that we're seeing rates pull back from the highs reached a few weeks ago. There is still room for improvement, although the next couple of weeks could bring plenty of volatility.
🏠 WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE HOUSING MARKET?
Last week's economic reports gave us a mixed picture of the economy and housing market.
• Home prices continue to appreciate. The FHFA index showed prices increased 0.3% in August and 2.4% year-over-year. The Case-Shiller 20-City Index also increased 2.7% annually.
• New home sales slipped slightly. September sales declined 0.6% to an annualized pace of 676,000, although that was still above expectations.
• Mortgage applications rebounded. Total applications increased 3.4%, with purchase applications up 3.8% and refinance applications up 2.7%. That's a welcome change after two consecutive weeks of declines.
• Builder activity remains challenging. Building permits declined 0.4%, while housing market sentiment and new construction continue to reflect affordability concerns.
• Consumer confidence improved significantly. The October reading jumped to 91.7, well above expectations and September's reading of 84.2.
Overall, home prices remain resilient, and we're seeing some improvement in mortgage activity. That's encouraging as we head into the final stretch of the year.
📊 THE ECONOMY & THE FED
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.00% at last week's meeting, as expected.
Meanwhile, third-quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, showing the economy continues to expand at a healthy pace.
Core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, increased to 3.1% annually from 3.0%. That's a reminder that inflation hasn't completely gone away.
Employment data was mixed, with weekly private payroll growth slowing to 16,800. However, both initial and continuing jobless claims declined, suggesting the labor market remains relatively resilient.
🔥 WHAT I'M WATCHING THIS WEEK
We have another important week ahead, particularly with employment data, the midterm elections, and ongoing geopolitical developments.
Oil prices will also be worth watching. Lower oil prices have helped mortgage rates recently, but any reversal could put pressure back on the bond market.
Next week brings another round of inflation data, which could have a significant impact on where rates head next.
🔒 MY RATE OUTLOOK
NEXT 15 DAYS: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT
For buyers closing in the next two weeks, there is an opportunity to cautiously float if they're comfortable with some risk. We've seen rates improve from their recent highs, and there is potential for additional improvement. However, with so much happening over the next couple of weeks, borrowers should be prepared to lock if the market turns.
15–30 DAYS: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT
For closings later in November, I see some potential for rates to improve further. These loans have a little more time to work through the upcoming economic reports and market events. For now, I'd keep the door open for additional improvement while monitoring the market closely.
30+ DAYS: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT
For longer-term closings, there is a possibility we could see rates improve by as much as a quarter point from current levels. That's an opportunity, not a guarantee. The December Fed meeting and upcoming economic data will be important factors.
As always, these are market outlooks, not guarantees. The right lock strategy depends on the borrower's closing timeline and comfort with risk.
🏡 REALTOR PARTNERS: LET'S FINISH THE YEAR STRONG!
We're entering the holiday season, and while many buyers assume the market slows down this time of year, there are still plenty of opportunities for motivated buyers and sellers.
In fact, fewer competing buyers during the holidays can sometimes create opportunities that aren't available during the busier spring and summer markets.
If you have buyers waiting for rates to improve, now is a great time to revisit the numbers. We can explore seller concessions, temporary or permanent rate buydowns, and different financing options to help make the payment more affordable.
And if you have a buyer already under contract, let's stay on top of the market and make sure we're making the right lock decision.
My goal is to help you keep transactions moving, get your buyers into homes, and finish 2026 on a high note!
Have a great week, everyone! 🏡🤝
