06/16/2026
Imagine you’ve just been told a major market drawdown is coming. You don’t know exactly when, just sometime in the next few years. You also don’t know how bad; it could be 20%, or 50%. You just know it’s coming.
Now imagine you have to design your portfolio with that information in hand. What would you do? You can’t very well sell out of the market, because the decline could be a few years off, which could cause you to miss out on some incredible gains in the meantime. But you can’t do nothing either.
A few questions you’d probably want an answer to: How much money will I need to live on during the drawdown? How long should we expect the bear market to last? If I had to sell something during that period, what would I be willing to sell?
These are the exact questions a thoughtful portfolio process is designed to answer before a drawdown ever arrives, and they deserve answers.
Because here’s the thing. We know a decline is coming. Bear markets are common. While we’ve been enjoying a long bull market for quite some time now, historically, we should expect a bear market about once every four years.
We just can never know the timing. This gets to the heart of why short-term assets matter.
They are our source of liquidity when the big, bad (but historically temporary) bear market shows up. They provide us with the confidence to ride out declines and uncertainty.
In other words, they “create the conditions for patience to exist” when patience is what is most needed.