10/14/2026
“Will Social Security even be around when I retire?”
I hear some version of this question from pre-retirees all the time.
And I understand why.
The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects that the trust fund used to pay retirement and survivor benefits could run out of reserves in 2032.
That sounds terrifying.
But it does not mean Social Security disappears in 2032.
Social Security would still be collecting payroll taxes from millions of workers. Under the current projections, those ongoing revenues would be enough to pay roughly 78% of scheduled retirement and survivor benefits if Congress made no changes at all.
That is still a serious problem.
It means Congress will eventually have to address the shortfall, and there are only so many levers available:
Increase revenue
Change the amount of wages subject to Social Security taxes
Adjust retirement ages
Modify future benefits
Or use some combination of those approaches
What will Congress ultimately do?
I do not know.
And I would be very hesitant to build someone's retirement plan around trying to guess.
Instead, we think about Social Security the same way we think about other risks in a retirement plan.
What happens if you receive 100% of your projected benefit?
What happens if benefits are reduced?
Should you claim at 62, 67, or 70?
How does that decision affect your spouse?
Could delaying benefits create a better Roth conversion window?
How much of your retirement actually depends on Social Security?
For someone retiring in the next few years, I would not assume Social Security is going away.
But I also would not build a retirement plan so tight that a future change in benefits blows up the entire plan.
The goal is not to predict what Congress will do. The goal is to build a retirement plan that considers how potential changes to Social Security could affect you.
I wrote a deeper article on the Social Security planning decisions we walk through with clients here:
https://blog.growthhorizonswm.com/post/when-to-claim-social-security
**For informational and educational purposes only and not intended as personalized financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Individual circumstances vary. Social Security projections are based on the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report and are subject to change based on future legislation and program experience.