09/17/2026
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points this week, a unanimous move that lifts the target range to 3.75%-4.00% and opens a new tightening cycle. Unemployment sits near 4.1%, essentially at the Fed's target, while growth is running hot, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model now pointing to 5.1% growth this quarter, well above the 3% pace most would call healthy.
Markets expect two to three more hikes over the next year, while the Fed itself is signaling just one. We would expect a measured, quarter-point approach either way, since that tends to give markets room to adjust rather than shocking them.
For our clients, the useful question is not any single meeting, but what a tighter rate environment means for financing, cash positioning, and portfolio construction going forward.
Keep an eye out for our upcoming market update, where we will dig into this in more depth, and reach out anytime with questions in the meantime.