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Chris Ryan, Mortgage Lender NMLS #537409, 501 N Frederick Avenue #210, Gaithersburg, MD (2026)

08/18/2025

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates looked like they might get a little better midweek when consumer inflation came in as expected. But later in the week, rates moved higher after wholesale inflation showed a much bigger jump than expected, mostly because of tariffs.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates may edge higher this week as doubts grow over a September Fed rate cut. All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, a stage he used last year to signal coming cuts. For now, the outlook suggests rates are more likely to rise than fall this week.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- The Fed: Powell is likely to set the table for a possible September Fed rate cut, but not commit to one like he did last year. Instead he will likely discuss the risk of recent wholesale inflation trickling down to consumers, and say any cuts would be data dependent. If Powell’s comments make markets doubt rate cuts, mortgage rates could end the week higher.
- Market sentiment: Mortgage rates dropped after weak jobs data a couple weeks ago, as markets expected Fed rate cuts. Now that confidence in those cuts is fading, rates could start to climb again.

08/11/2025

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 👍
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower last week despite a lack of any major economic data as markets continued to speculate the Fed would begin cutting its policy rate in September and would cut multiple times this year.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
Mortgage rates could move either higher or lower this week, depending on how inflation readings come in for last month and if it affects markets' expectations for Fed rate cuts. Expectations for Fed rate cuts jumped after last month’s jobs report revealed major downward revisions to job growth in recent months, and if inflation comes in higher it could cast doubts about the cuts.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Inflation: Markets will be watching for signs that tariffs are driving prices higher, as hotter-than-expected inflation could challenge expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Higher inflation would push mortgage rates up, while tame inflation could help them improve.
- Economic data: Other data this week will gauge the economy’s strength and influence mortgage rates. Weakness could nudge rates lower, while resilience may keep them steady or push them slightly higher.

08/04/2025

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 👍
Mortgage rates dipped early in the week, but stalled after the Fed meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference led markets to scale back expectations for a September Fed rate cut. However, Friday's jobs data, including huge downward revisions to the prior two months, raised concerns about the labor market and renewed optimism that the Fed would be forced to cut rates, helping push mortgage rates lower for the week.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
This week does not have a lot of economic data to help move mortgage rates lower, but we could see them drift lower anyway.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: This week has some Treasury bond auctions and a few smaller economic reports, but nothing that is expected to make a splash in mortgage rates. Instead, traders will be waiting to see what next week's inflation data brings.
- The Fed: Markets are now overwhelmingly expecting the Fed to start cutting rates in September, and are even pricing in possible cuts at each of this year's three remaining meetings. If that sentiment shifts and markets start to doubt those cuts, mortgage rates could creep higher. But for now, that risk seems low for this week.

07/30/2025

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Give me a call if this has happened to you.

07/28/2025

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 👍
Despite clickbait headlines, mortgage rates have barely moved in recent weeks. Other than the normal talk surrounding tariffs and trade deals, nothing significant affected rates last week.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
This week is jam packed with data and events that could move rates, even prompting lenders to reprice during the day. Loans closing soon should be cautious, while loans with time are likely to see rates settle down again after this week.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Labor data: Reports on job openings, private payrolls, unemployment claims, and Friday's BLS jobs data featuring new job creations and unemployment numbers could cause volatility for mortgage rates. Signs of a softening labor market could help rates, while labor market strength could push rates higher.
- The Fed: The Fed meeting ends Wednesday with no policy rate cut expected. Fed Chair Powell's press conference following the Fed policy statement has a high likelihood of causing volatility for mortgage rates.
- Economic data: Several reports this week, and strong economic data could pressure rates higher while weak data may help bring rates down a bit.

07/21/2025

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 👍
After rising in recent weeks, rates hit a ceiling midweek and then began to improve, finishing the week roughly unchanged. Inflation came in slightly better than expected but still increased, with signs that tariffs are starting to impact prices.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 👍
With little economic data on the calendar, rates will likely stay relatively flat this week, aside from typical day-to-day fluctuations. Rates are much more likely to see movement next week with the Fed meeting and labor market data.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Tariff headlines: Markets will keep reacting to tariff headlines, including potential retaliation from other countries. August 1 is the current deadline, though past deadlines have often been delayed or ignored.
-Talk of firing Powell: There has been lots of talk of President Trump attempting to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, despite laws protecting Powell's job. Markets speculate that if Trump were to replace Powell with someone willing to cut the Fed policy rate, it would likely lead to more inflation, which would be bad for mortgage rates. However, it is still considered unlikely that Trump would take this step.

07/14/2025

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟭𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱 👎
Mortgage rates continued to creep higher last week, feeling some pressure from the announcement of more tariffs and ahead of this week's inflation data. Although rates haven't made big moves higher, they are more in line with what we saw earlier in June before rates dropped.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
This week will start quietly, with no economic data on the calendar for Monday, but could be volatile after that depending on how inflation and other economic reports come in for the week. If rates move higher, they could match the highs from May and June, but would likely fall again eventually (though that will take weeks). However, there is a chance data could help hold rates steady. Only time will tell.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Inflation data: Tuesday brings consumer inflation, which is expected to start showing effects from already implemented tariffs by moving higher. After that comes wholesale inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment data, all reports that will be watched by markets and will affect mortgage rates this week.
- Tariffs and trade wars: Rates will react to announced tariffs and deals to cut or eliminate tariffs.

07/07/2025

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱 👎
Mortgage rates started to move higher last week after data showed more jobs were created than forecast for June, and unemployment ticked lower. Although there were signs of labor market weakness when the details were examined, the stronger headline numbers pressured mortgage rates higher to end the week, as they ended all speculation of a Fed rate cut happening at the July meeting. The passing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act had little effect on rates, as markets had already priced in the expected increases to Treasury debt to pay for the bill.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
There is very little economic data this week, and after seeing rates move lower through the end of June, we could see them creep higher heading into next week’s inflation data. While it’s unlikely we’ll see rates make big moves higher, it’s also unlikely they’ll return to last week’s best levels.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Tariff talk: Headlines this week about tariffs will play a small role in markets, trickling down to an even smaller effect on mortgage rates.
- Economic data: It’s actually the lack of data that will play a role this week, leaving rates to drift higher.

06/30/2025

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟯𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 👍
Mortgage rates continued to move lower last week as markets reacted to comments from Fed members suggesting policy rate cuts could be on the table this year, depending on labor market and inflation trends. Inflation data came in mostly as expected, but most of the rate gains happened earlier in the week before that data dropped.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 👍
We’ve got a holiday shortened trading week packed with important data. If labor reports show signs of a weakening job market, that could fuel speculation the Fed might cut its policy rate as early as July, and that could help push mortgage rates even lower. That said, if the data comes in stronger than expected, that could instead push rates slightly higher.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Jobs data: Markets will be watching for signs of labor market weakness, and Thursday's BLS jobs data will have the biggest effect on rates for the week.
- Independence Day: Markets will close early on Thursday at 2pm ET and will be closed Friday.
- The Fed: Markets will continue to look for signs from Fed members that policy rate cuts are coming, and if a July cut becomes more likely it will help mortgage rates improve.

06/25/2025

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06/23/2025

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 👍
Mortgage rates last week had less of a response than usual to the Fed meeting, where the Fed left its policy rate unchanged but signaled it is less likely to cut multiple times in 2025. Rates did slowly creep lower though to end the week better.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 👍
This week, mortgage rates will react to global events including the conflict with Iran, and could continue to build on recent momentum and improve further. It is unlikely rates will move significantly lower this week, but we could still see better rebate pricing (the credit received from a lender towards closing costs).

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Middle East conflict: Although the U.S. military action in Iran this past weekend didn't cause traders to make large scale moves to the safety of bonds (which would help improve mortgage rates), bonds have still improved from last week, helping rates.
- Inflation: The Fed's favored gauge of inflation, the PCE index, comes out on Friday. If this reading shows more signs of cooling inflation, it is good for mortgage rates.
- Fed speakers: Any signals of future rate cuts from Fed members out speaking this week will benefit rates.

06/16/2025

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 👍
Mortgage rates improved last week after inflation data showed both consumer and wholesale inflation were less affected by the recent tariffs and came in lower than expected. Inflation is a big enemy of mortgage rates, so lower inflation left the door open for rates to improve on the week.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
This week, mortgage rates could bounce around day to day, although we shouldn't see big moves for the week. The main event is Wednesday's Fed activity, which is always a mover for mortgage rates. However, markets are closed on Thursday for Juneteenth, which means we may see more movement on Friday.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- The Fed: The Fed is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at this month's Fed meeting, but markets will be looking at the new rate forecast issued each quarter by Fed members. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference following the Fed statement has the potential to affect rates, as Powell answers press questions about the Fed's outlook on tariffs, inflation, and other topics. We could see mortgage rates change through the day on Wednesday afternoon as markets digest the Fed's comments.

Chris Ryan, Mortgage Lender NMLS #537409

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