John Funderburk

03/31/2026

The Funderburk Brief
MARKET INTELLIGENCE | INVESTMENT INSIGHT
PRE-MARKET MORNING BRIEF

Tuesday, March 31, 2026 · Q1 Final Trading Day
Futures Green on Trump Iran Exit Signal But Oil Stays Above $100
WSJ reports Trump is willing to end military operations in Iran even if Hormuz remains closed. Futures are up 0.8% across the board. Today is the last trading day of Q1 and Nike earnings after the bell will dominate the close.

OVERNIGHT HEADLINE DRIVER
The Wall Street Journal reported overnight that President Trump and his aides have concluded that a mission to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz extends beyond his 4–6 week timeline and that he is willing to end U.S. military operations even if the strait stays largely shut. Futures immediately spiked. Brent pulled back toward $107 before recovering. Iran attacked another tanker overnight, keeping the situation volatile. Trump's April 6 deadline for Iran remains in effect.
Today is the last trading day of Q1 2026 and it may be the most consequential single session of this quarter. The WSJ report on Trump's potential Iran off-ramp is the catalyst that markets have been waiting for. Futures up 0.8% is a meaningful response, but treat it as a tentative one. We've seen this pattern before: a diplomatic headline fires futures higher, then reality — another tanker attack, another Iranian denial drags them back down by mid-session.

What's different today is that Q1 closes at 4pm. Fund managers who have been underweight or defensively positioned may be forced to rebalance into the close, which could amplify moves in both directions. Watch the opening hour closely.

The Nike earnings call tonight is arguably the most important read on the U.S. consumer we'll get this quarter. With EPS expected to be down 45% year-over-year and the stock near decade lows, the bar is low but guidance for World Cup season and any commentary on tariff impact could move the stock significantly in either direction.

Bottom line: Stay nimble today. The trend is your friend until the close, but this market doesn't trust rallies yet. Consumer Confidence at 9am is the first real data point if it surprises to the upside, the rally has legs. If it disappoints, expect a reversal. Energy, financials, and defensive dividend payers remain my core positioning.

This newsletter is published by John Funderburk Financial LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the SEC pursuant to the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. CRD/IARD No. on file. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including potential loss of principal. This communication is provided in compliance with Regulation Best Interest and applicable SEC/FINRA standards. © 2026 John Funderburk Financial LLC. All rights reserved

03/23/2026

📊 THE FUNDERBURK BRIEF | Market Close Monday, March 23, 2026
The losing streak is over. Here's how today ended.
🟢 THE CLOSING BELL
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 631 points, or 1.38%, to close at 46,208. The S&P 500 rose 1.15% to end at 6,581, while the Nasdaq gained 1.38% to settle at 21,947. CNBC

That snaps a four-week losing streak for all three major indexes.
Oil dropped more than $7 to close around $90.75/barrel 24/7 Wall St.

— the single biggest catalyst of the day. The Russell 2000 surged 2.89% and the VIX fell to 25.08 as fear eased across the market. Yahoo Finance

🕊️ WHAT DROVE THE RALLY
One post. One pivot. President Trump announced the U.S. and Iran have held productive conversations and that he was halting strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period. 24/7 Wall St.

Tesla gained 3%, Nvidia and Apple rose over 2%. Caterpillar surged 3.96%, leading industrials higher. Airline stocks like United Airlines jumped 4.5% as oil prices collapsed. TRADING ECONOMICS

The only sector left behind? Energy — which had been the one bright spot for weeks.
PNC Chief Investment Officer Yung-Yu Ma summed it up well: "What looked like a high likelihood of military escalation is at least moderated. A near-term off ramp is a realistic possibility." CNBC

⚠️ DON'T CELEBRATE TOO FAST
Iranian state media denied direct talks took place. The five-day pause is conditional. Gold is still down 3.8% today at $4,396 Yahoo Finance

— precious metals don't recover this fast when the all-clear is truly sounded. Markets are pricing in hope, not resolution.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink put it best in his annual letter today: "Over time, staying invested has mattered far more than getting the timing right. Some of the market's strongest days came amid the most unsettling headlines." CNBC

👀 EYES ON THIS WEEK → Tuesday Flash PMI Manufacturing & Services (March) → Wednesday — Import/Export Price Indexes → Friday Final Q4 GDP + Core PCE — the Fed's inflation gauge. This is the print that will determine whether today's rally has legs.
💬 MY TAKE
Today was a reminder of something I tell clients constantly you cannot time the market. Before Trump's Truth Social post, futures were pointing sharply lower. Within hours, the Dow had reversed 1,000+ points. CNBC

The investors who stayed disciplined and stayed invested captured that entire move. The ones who sold into last week's fear did not.
One day doesn't change the fundamental picture. Oil is still elevated. Inflation is still sticky. The Fed is still on hold. But today proved the market can recover fast when the narrative shifts and your portfolio should be built for both scenarios.
Questions about how today's move affects your plan? Let's talk.

John Funderburk | Owner & Founder, John Funderburk Financial | Registered Investment Adviser | Frederick, MD

03/21/2026

📊 THE FUNDERBURK BRIEF | Weekly Market Recap
Week of March 17–20, 2026
Four straight weeks of losses. Here's what happened — and what it means for your portfolio.

🛢️ OIL & WAR DOMINATED THE WEEK
The U.S.-Iran conflict sent Brent crude testing $110+/bbl. The IEA responded with its largest-ever oil reserve release in history — 400 million barrels. Energy stocks hit all-time highs. Everything else? Not so much.

📉 THE NUMBERS TELL THE STORY
▼ S&P 500 — closed at 6,506 | down ~2.9% on the week
▼ Nasdaq — fell 2%+ Friday alone | nearing correction
▼ Russell 2000 — officially entered correction territory (-10%+ from recent high)
▼ Gold — worst weekly drop since 1983, falling over 10%
▲ WTI Crude — up again | oil is the only winner

🏦 THE FED DIDN'T HELP
Wednesday's FOMC decision: rates held at 3.50–3.75%. But Chair Powell raised the full-year inflation forecast — citing tariffs AND oil. Rate cut hopes for 2026 are shrinking fast.
The S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025. That's a technical line serious investors watch closely.

👀 WHAT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
The two reports that will move markets:
→ Friday 3/27 | Final Q4 GDP — consumer spending will be scrutinized
→ Friday 3/27 | Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Two hot PPI prints already. A third could slam the door on rate cuts entirely.

💬 MY TAKE
Volatility like this is uncomfortable — but it's normal. The S&P 500 historically sees three 5% pullbacks per year. What matters now is whether your portfolio is built for a range of outcomes, not just the best case.
If the current environment has you rethinking your allocation, let's talk.
📩 DM me or visit johnfunderburkfinancial.com

John Funderburk | Owner & Founder, John Funderburk Financial | Registered Investment Adviser | Frederick, MD
This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

03/18/2026

📉 The Funderburk Brief | Wednesday, March 18, 2026
Your end-of-day recap — everything that mattered after the bell.

📊 MARKET CLOSE

All major indexes finished in the red, erasing this week's gains in a single session. The Dow shed 768 points. Over 75% of U.S. issues declined — it was a broad-based sell-off with nowhere to hide except energy.

• S&P 500 — 6,624 ▼ 1.36% | Fresh 2026 low
• Dow Jones — 46,225 ▼ 1.63% (-768 pts)
• Nasdaq — 22,152 ▼ 1.46%
• Russell 2000 — 2,478 ▼ 1.64% | Now negative YTD
• VIX — 25.09 ▲ 12% | Fear spiked
• 10-Yr Treasury — 4.259% (+5.7 bps)

📉 WHAT DROVE THE SELL-OFF

Three things hit at once — and the market had no answer for any of them.

• PPI (February) — Wholesale inflation surged +0.7% month-over-month, more than doubling the +0.3% estimate. Core PPI hit 3.9% year-over-year — the highest in over a year. The inflation data set the tone before Powell said a single word.
• Fed "Hawkish Hold" — Rates held at 3.50–3.75% as expected. But the updated dot plot raised the core inflation forecast to 2.7% and kept just one cut penciled in for all of 2026 — likely not before year-end. Powell admitted the "last mile" of inflation is proving stubborn.
• Iran Conflict & Oil — Brent crude pushed toward $107–$110 after U.S. strikes hit Iranian energy facilities, including the world's largest natural gas field. Energy was the only sector in the green. Powell said directly: "What happens in the Middle East will be a big factor" in rate decisions going forward.

💬 POWELL'S KEY LINE

"What happens in the Middle East will be a big factor" in inflation — and therefore in the Fed's decision-making. Higher energy prices could preclude any cut in 2026 entirely. Markets heard that loud and clear.

📈 NAMES THAT MOVED

• Micron (MU) — Closed essentially flat, but surged after hours on a massive earnings beat. Q2 revenue nearly tripled to $23.86B vs. $20.07B expected. Entire 2026 HBM capacity already sold out. Board approved a 30% dividend hike. The AI memory supercycle is real.
• Nvidia (NVDA) — Bucked the Mag 7 sell-off, edging slightly higher after CEO Jensen Huang confirmed purchase orders for China-bound AI chips at GTC 2026.
• Lululemon (LULU) — Up ~5% on a Q4 beat and board shakeup, though the 2026 outlook was cautious.
• Amazon, Apple, Microsoft — All fell more than 1%, leading the Magnificent Seven lower.
• Energy names — The lone bright spot. Liberty Energy (LBRT) up 70%+ YTD as oil stays elevated.

💵 FIXED INCOME & RATES

• 10-Yr Treasury: 4.259% — yields climbed post-Fed as Powell reinforced "mildly restrictive" stance
• Fed funds rate: 3.50–3.75% — unchanged, one cut still projected for 2026
• CME FedWatch: Markets increasingly pricing out the remaining 2026 cut amid oil shock

Bottom line: Today wasn't really about the Fed — it was about stagflation fear. Hot inflation plus an energy shock from the Middle East equals a central bank with its hands tied. The one cut projected for 2026 is looking more like a placeholder than a promise. Watch oil. If Brent stays above $100, this repricing has further to run.

09/29/2023

Multibillion-dollar EV battery plants are crucial to the automotive industry's future and uniquely positioned to have wide-ranging implications for the UAW,

09/29/2023

AMD and Microsoft have collaborated for years on computers, consoles and the cloud, and are doing more work together now in artificial intelligence.

09/29/2023

09/28/2023