Double Eagle Wealth Management - Ryan Ammon

09/03/2026

Two people can retire with the exact same average return over 20 years and end up in completely different places. It's called Sequence of Returns Risk.

The order those returns happen in matters just as much as the average itself. A bad market in the first few years of retirement, while you're also withdrawing income, does far more damage than the same bad market showing up in year 15. It's simply because you have to sell more shares to generate the same amount of cash needs.

Accumulation and distribution are different games. Going down the mountain is often harder and more risky than going up it.

09/01/2026

🐂 Bull Case: The people who can actually do something about the bond market just did. The Treasury signaled it could tap its $1T general account to fund bond buybacks after 30-year yields hit 20-year highs. Stocks immediately responded positively.

08/31/2026

🐻 Bear Case: Markets hate uncertainty. Sometimes more than bad news. Uncertainty is what they're getting.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been reluctant to offer much in the way of forward guidance markets used to get from Powell. Unclear messaging from the Fed hasn't been an issue so far, but it's something to watch if some questionable data starts flowing in.

08/28/2026

You can be a partner at a firm, but that doesn't mean you own or even control your practice...

08/28/2026

Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole Address: A Gentle Hawk

I saw a hawk yesterday evening on the 7th hole. I thought he wanted to take me out. I called him Chair Warsh and he seemed to take it as a compliment.

Anyways, the real Fed Chair didn’t scare me as much this morning. He seemed to prefer a return to traditional monetary policy, while waiting for the data to tell the Fed what to do. Oh, and he seemed really focused on prices, which could be interesting if we see the jobs market soften.

Forward Guidance Retired: Formally ended pre-announced rate paths in normal economic times, arguing explicit forward commitments create a "Hall of Mirrors" trap.

Firm 2% PCE Inflation Target: It’s a non-negotiable threshold, noting price stability is not self-executing or automatically revert to the mean. The Fed will be active here. Their primary focus remains on prices, keeping rate hikes on the table if progress stalls.

Bottom Line: The Fed is abandoning pre-programmed rate roadmaps. They will be highly data-dependent, but the explicit forward guidance is going away. Think for yourselves!

08/27/2026

So advisors moving between these two firms can't even initiate contact with clients after their departure? Notwithstanding taking client data and outright solicitation, how is that any good for the client? They have to track down where their advisor they've trusted all these years went? Maybe these firms should realize that clients work with advisors, not firms.

A settlement between the two RIAs requires 14 days' resignation notice and bans solicitation of former clients for a year after departure.

08/25/2026

🐂 Bull Case: The S&P is trading at all-time highs and its PE ratio has actually FALLEN from 2025. Earnings 🚀

08/24/2026

🐻 Bear Case: Datacenter demand falls short of datacenter buildout and we're left with a glut of supply and a bunch of write-downs.

08/21/2026

Communication. Families that talk about money across their generations tend to be the ones with fewer problems. It's surprising how many kids think their parents finances are solid and then end up helping them out. Or kids that inherit a meaningful sum of money only to give a huge chunk of it to the government in taxes. Both situations improved by a little communication.

08/20/2026

My opinion for business owners: be sale-ready all the time. That doesn't mean you want to sell or that you're fielding offers. It means you're always operating in a place that maximizes value. You never know when the time will be right and if you aren't ready, you may not be able to take advantage.