Kim Beirne - The Rueth Team

10/29/2024

10/22/2024

Monday was frustrating for the bond market. It was a medium large sell-off that would have made more sense as a flat, forgettable Monday. The only thing remotely resembling a consensus on the rationale is the notion that election odds tilted toward Trump over the weekend and the market currently associates a Trump victory (specifically, a red sweep) with higher growth, inflation, Treasury issuance, and volatility. Tuesday is off to a much calmer start with bonds actually in slightly positive territory. Once again, the calendar is empty in terms of market-moving econ data.

In the bigger picture, yesterday doesn't necessarily look too far out of place. It's only offensive in light of the absence of apparent motivation. The chart below is a rarity on MBS Live as it includes moving averages (and we have some thoughts). Each one has been completely disregarded on the way up. Notable, there is not currently a way to calculate any moving average that is higher than yields over the past 2 days. A 222-day average is closest and it's about 10bps lower. What now, moving average fans?

10/08/2024

Hey Realtors...Buyers and Sellers....listen up

3 weeks ago, the Fed voted to cut rates by 0.50%. Traders had rushed to get in position for that, so a small "reset" followed as the market waited for the most important vote. The vote in question was on whether or not the market was ahead of itself in mid September and it was cast by last Friday's jobs report. When marquis reports coincide with big changes in Fed policy, and when Fed policy changes had a lot to do with the past two examples of the marquis report in question, and when the marquis report not only offers a completely different message from the past two, but also revises the past two in a way that casts doubt on the extent of the Fed's decision, you get exactly what we've seen since Friday morning. It's a firm rejection of mid-September's rates and a wake-up call that rates can still move higher, but not the same sort of watershed moment seen in 2013 before the taper tantrum. Barring unforeseen exogenous shocks, we'll now need another weak jobs report (or two or three) before re-challenging the mid-September floor.

06/03/2024

Getting Lima after we let the cleaning crew in on Mr Mikes new listing at 5639 Cardinal Flower Dr. amazing home across from Fossil Highschool and Twin Silo Park. Coming soon…..