05/16/2025
As I mentioned in my 6:30 AM forecast update, scattered thunderstorms are expected to return on Saturday.
Some of those storms could be strong, and I’m watching the model trends closely. But my bigger concern is focused on Sunday, when a more dynamic storm system pushes across the Rockies and emerges onto the Plains.
A surface low is forecast to develop over north-central Colorado, similar to what we saw on Wednesday—though this setup comes with some key differences.
On Sunday:
• Strong southwest winds will increase across the mountains, helping to lift a warm front northward across the I-25 corridor and out onto the eastern plains of Colorado and western Kansas.
• South of this warm front, temps will soar into the 70s and 80s, but dewpoints will plummet into the teens and 20s, a sign of dry mountain air pouring in.
• North of the front, dewpoints could surge into the 50s and low 60s across northeast Colorado, eastern Wyoming, western Nebrasky, and parts of western Kansas.
This will set up a classic dryline scenario, stretching roughly from Fort Collins to Greeley to Fort Morgan to Akron to Burlington and down toward Scott City, Kansas.
Along and north of this dryline, wind shear and surface boundaries will combine to support:
• Scattered severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening
• A threat for damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes
• Enhanced rotating updraft potential, thanks to strong directional wind shear (easterly surface winds clashing with south-southwesterly flow aloft)
I’ll be watching this one closely and will continue to keep you updated—no surprises on my watch. I’ll also discuss what to expect for Monday and Tuesday in future updates.
K thanks bye!