06/16/2021
For probably the past four years I have been hearing from potential buyers, "I am going to wait until housing prices go down to buy" or, " I am going to wait until the market crashes." Those buyers that said that four years ago are surely kicking themselves. Timing a housing market, especially when purchasing a primary residence, makes about us much sense as the fact the Kardashians have been on air for 20 seasons (how is this possible).
Below is a great article to read that provides some insights and stats of how this market compares to the market in '06-'07. A few bullet points for those of you that don't like to read too much ;).
- Mortgage loans are much harder to get. An index of mortgage credit availability reached almost 870 in June 2006. This March it was just 125. (On a scale of 0 to 1,000 with 0 being hard to get a mortgage and 1,000 being very easy)
- Right now, the biggest threat to the housing market is a sharp increase in the current ultralow mortgage rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the rate on the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will rise from 3.1% this quarter to 3.5% at the end of 2021 and 4.2% at the end of 2022.
-Only about 0.1% of mortgage loans issued this year carry adjustable rates, compared with about 60% in the bubble years. So homeowners today won’t be shaken out of their homes by rising rates.
- CoreLogic Inc. estimates that homeowners’ equity in mortgaged homes increased 16%, or $1.5 trillion, last year alone. It says only 2.8% of people owed more on their mortgages than the homes were worth at yearend, down from 26% who had negative equity in late 2009. Most people who can’t make payments—say, because of a job loss—can sell at a profit and avoid foreclosure.
- Having overbuilt in the 2000s, chastened homebuilders underbuilt in the 2010s, and now millennials, the largest generation, are reaching their peak homebuying years at a time when starter homes are in the shortest supply. On June 7, Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimated that only 65,000 starter homes were completed in 2020, less than a fifth the number built annually in the late 1970s and early ’80s.
Stricter lending standards have reduced risk in the market.