GeoVest Advisors

07/26/2023

The Fed is expected to raise rates later today, as Powell continues his fight with inflation, so far, he’s done a great job. A healthy consumer has led to robust travel numbers, the airports are full and demand is strong. The big tech stocks reported this week with ok-good numbers propelled by AI hype, we will have to wait and see on the actual applications. New home construction numbers are up as people who locked in sub 3% mortgages during covid and the following years are reluctant to sell. New/stricter banking regulations are coming to regional banks in the form of higher capital ratios, an accountment on the exact details is expected later this week. Lots of talk of a soft landing for the economy as usual the media overhypes everything in both directions, the honest answer is we will see.

07/14/2023

After hearing some of the big banks report this morning including America’s biggest JP Morgan, we can conclude that the consumer is in good shape. Credit defaults are still not up to pre-Covid levels, spending is robust, and the consumer is in a great position for whatever lies ahead of us. CFO’s have mixed remarks about the future of the American economy, with expectations of rates going and staying higher until at least the middle of 2024. The big banks overall are healthy and have credit provisions set aside for any number of outcomes, deposit balances are lower due to the number of attractive alternatives to cash such as Money Market Funds or CD’s. China’s reopening hasn’t provided the lift everyone was hoping for, while Russia is fighting internally and hopefully will lead to the end of the war. We move forward in a volatile market with a discipline approach buying companies with strong balance sheets, earnings potential, at attractive evaluations for our clients.

07/05/2023

Hope everyone had a great 4th of July, things are perking along ok for the most part with recessionary talks being moved to next year for the most part. On the Paychex conference call, they sited small businesses so far have been resilient to the interest rate hikes, able to get the capital they need, but face troubles in labor. Powell has made remarks that makes it seem very likely he will continue to raise rates as inflation is still above the 2% goal. The big banks passed the Fed’s stress test last week and most of them raised their dividends as a result. They all report in the following weeks and we will have a better idea on the pulse of the economy, consumer spending, and credit default rates. Concerns looking forward include: Commercial real estate, inflation and Russia needs to stop this war. Markets remain volatile but overall positive year to date, we will continue to move forward with a disciplined approach.

06/26/2023

Moving forward all posts will be posted on the main page and in the groups we post in, I apologize for any confusion, we will adapt and move forward towards a better tomorrow. Inflation is showing signs of moderation, CPI and PPI are starting to decline. Powell has stated many times that the goal is 2% and we are still a long way off. I think it seems reasonable to think he will raise rates some more given the economic metrics stay relatively steady. Manufacturing is slowing a bit while the service side of the economy is growing. China lowered their rates to try and stimulate their economy, its hard to tell if relations between the US and China are improving. Consumers are being careful as they wade through the grocery stores, Kroger has some good data from their affluent customers, however even they are looking for alternatives. Hoping a solution to the Russian- Ukraine War can be found sooner rather than later.

About UsGeoVest Advisors GeoVest Advisors, Inc. is a fee-based, investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940. We manage individual portfolios of marketable stocks, bonds, and money market instruments to the specific pa...

09/14/2022

The expected September Fed move is for a 75-point basis point increase, as we saw yesterday inflation is still the driving factor of this market. Oil prices have backed off slightly, but we are still very far from the days of $2.00 per gallon. Earnings for Q2 came in at +8.7% which was very good considering all the macro events going on. The data out of China was soft and I would expect it to remain soft as they are locking down again in an effort to fight covid. Some good news out of Ukraine of late, hoping they can end this war quickly and prevent any more damage. Moving forward the consumer will be a big factor and if we all have enough disposable income to buy more than groceries and gas. Volatility will remain into the future, if you’d like to speak to an advisor, please feel free to reach us here:

About UsGeoVest Advisors GeoVest Advisors, Inc. is a fee-based, investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940. We manage individual portfolios of marketable stocks, bonds, and money market instruments to the specific pa...

08/16/2022

Second quarter earnings are good and hence you see the recovery in the market. China is slowly digging itself out as covid has had a big impact on their economy. They are lowering interest rates in order to spark economic activity. The excessive building in China has led to developers into bankruptcy. The government has stepped in, but it will take time and billions more to recover. Back home our rates will probably rise, as inflation remains, food and energy prices will remain elevated. Powell will speak to our progress the closer and closer we get to elections. We have challenges as always but strong companies that can raises prices and beat inflation will be the winners. If you would like to speak to an advisor, please see our contact info here:

Telephone 800-638-5050 FAX 585-248-8784 Address 245 WillowBrook Office Park,Fairport, NY 14450 Send Us A Message

08/04/2022

The fed raised the rates by 75 basis points as expected. Jerome Powell conducted his follow up conference with strong language relative to fighting inflation by increasing the rates again in September. Earnings reports in the second quarter so far have been quite good given the circumstances. We still have shipping bottle necks, labor shortages, and inflation to deal with but companies are managing it, looking forward statements have been positive. The markets have reflected that optimism as consumer spending remains strong. If you would like to talk with an advisor our contact info can be found here:

About UsGeoVest Advisors GeoVest Advisors, Inc. is a fee-based, investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940. We manage individual portfolios of marketable stocks, bonds, and money market instruments to the specific pa...

07/20/2022

Although the news outlets are calling for the end of the world interestingly enough the economy keeps perking along. Earnings are starting to come in and they are very good in view of the circumstances. The banks are doing well, deal flow or merger and acquisition activity has slowed which is to be expected. Earnings were affected by the slower M&A deals, but also the provisions they put aside in order to cover credit losses. So far credit losses have been negligible, and the banks are doing it to be responsible. If loan losses don’t happen that money will flow back into earnings. Mortgage lending has slowed due to higher rates, typical in higher interest rate environments. We can expect another 75-point increase in rates when the fed meets next week. The main take away from the banks are that the consumer is strong and remains buying, more money is allocated towards fuel and groceries, but people are still buying. Inflation is running hot, and the markets remain volatile, if you’d like to speak to a financial advisors contact info can be found here:

About UsGeoVest Advisors GeoVest Advisors, Inc. is a fee-based, investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940. We manage individual portfolios of marketable stocks, bonds, and money market instruments to the specific pa...

07/12/2022

Second quarter earnings season is here, first up the banks. With loan defaults on the rise, we will see reduced earnings and cash reserves going up. They should give us a good picture of the strength of the consumer. CPI data comes out on Wednesday as it appears prices are starting to level off, although it seems too early to call that one. The dollar is strong, and the yield curve is flat, occasionally inverting during daily trading. The Fed is on deck to raises rates another 75 basis points which seems highly probable. A lot of macroeconomic concerns ahead, volatility continues, keep your seat belts on. If you would like to speak with an advisor our contact info is listed on our website:

About UsGeoVest Advisors GeoVest Advisors, Inc. is a fee-based, investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940. We manage individual portfolios of marketable stocks, bonds, and money market instruments to the specific pa...

07/06/2022

We see commodity prices starting to level out and, in some cases, go lower. If prices go lower, it would be a positive for the reduction in inflation, copper (under $4 a pound) is particularly important going forward. It is in short supply, hard to mine, and vital for electric cars moving forward. A car running on traditional combustion uses roughly 84lbs of copper, hybrid 88lbs, a full electric car uses 184lbs of copper. We need oil prices lower. Lower commodity prices also suggest the economy is moderating, in previous posts I have talked about the balancing act between fighting inflation and keeping the economy alive. Lots of economic data coming out, the big 4 US banks report next week, will be interesting to hear their comments on the strength of the consumer. Volatility remains. If you have questions or would like to speak with an advisor, contact info can be found here:

About UsGeoVest Advisors GeoVest Advisors, Inc. is a fee-based, investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940. We manage individual portfolios of marketable stocks, bonds, and money market instruments to the specific pa...

06/27/2022

Interest rates around the world are pressing upwards, the fed here in the US is suggesting two more 75 basis point increases, it shows the commitment to knocking down inflation. The trick is raising rates to a level that is impactful to inflation but doesn’t slow the economy to a halt. The housing industry is slowing as the average price of a new home is now approximately $407,000, Toll Brothers (a luxury home builder) indicate that their new homes have a ticket price of $800,000 plus. Home buyers are noticing the elevated prices are well as the increasing rates on their mortgages. The war in Ukraine continues and is a drag on the global economy as Putin presses on with his invasion. Energy prices remain elevated and will continue, the politicians show no interest in changing course and using our natural gas and oil. Second quarter earnings will be coming in shortly and will probably be good. Economic turbulence will continue so keep the seat belt on and if you have any question feel free to reach out, our contact info can be found here:

About UsGeoVest Advisors GeoVest Advisors, Inc. is a fee-based, investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940. We manage individual portfolios of marketable stocks, bonds, and money market instruments to the specific pa...

06/15/2022

I was incorrect about the currency issue and the impact on earnings talked about in past posts. My original thoughts were that the impact on earnings would be in the neighborhood of a 2-3% hit, now it looks like 5%. The markets are responding to future interest rate increases by the fed and today we will find out if it’s a 50-basis point raise or 75. The economy is showing signs of moderation as consumers disposable income is being spent at the pump and the grocery store. The turmoil will shake out and evaluations will be carefully reviewed, as market volatility could give us the opportunity to pick up some great companies at attractive prices. If you have questions or would like to talk with an advisor, please feel free to reach out we are looking to serve more clients! Website:

About UsGeoVest Advisors GeoVest Advisors, Inc. is a fee-based, investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940. We manage individual portfolios of marketable stocks, bonds, and money market instruments to the specific pa...