Bellwether Capital Management LLC

05/24/2022

A big miss on is being called a big surprise, but sales peaked over a year ago and have been trending down for months.
https://thebellwetherblog.com/2021/07/26/all-good-things/

05/12/2022

Markets are a matter of perspective.

The NASDAQ is down almost -30% from its November 2021 highs. Unlike the pandemic drawdown, this sell-off doesn’t have a clear catalyst. It’s unfolding in fits and starts and has investo…

02/23/2022

An ugly start to the year, but the global stock market is only down about -8% from its all-time highs. Are we there yet?

In January, I wrote BCM was entering 2022 with a reduction in our tactical risk allocation, moving to neutral weight from last year’s overweight position. That was a fortunate and timely call…

01/07/2022

BCM's Q1 2022 Investor Letter "What's Old is New Again" is available at bellwethercm.com.
https://bit.ly/32W6qdW

by Victor K. Lai, CFA 2021 IN REVIEW 2021 ended in an unremarkable way (perhaps a good thing given the events of 2020). In many cases, we saw a continuation of the same old, same old. For example, we ended 2021 with yet another strain of COVID. This time last year many people (myself included) were....

08/28/2021

Many things about China don’t make sense in the West. It’s not just food and politics, but markets too. For example, in China market quotes flash red on upticks and green on downticks. …

07/29/2021

https://thebellwetherblog.com/2021/07/26/all-good-things/

Back in January 2011 I wrote “I think one of the most attractive domestic investment opportunities is also one of the most detested – real estate.” Obvious and easy in hindsight, …

05/22/2021

https://thebellwetherblog.com/2021/05/21/bitcoin-honesty-and-promise/

Bitcoin had an outstanding 2020 that left most everything else in the dust. For perspective, the S&P 500 notched a respectable 16% price gain but looked like a rounding error in comparison. Fig…

05/07/2021

Markets have played this game before and are just using the same old dance moves.

Every decade or two financial markets enter a state of what Alan Greenspan called “irrational exuberance.” These periods are characterized by markets that defy logic and reason. The tim…

04/01/2021

BCM Q1 2021 Update

NOTE ON UPDATES Starting with Q1 2021, BCM is consolidating its various update notes into a single “Quarter Update,” labelled as “Quarter Update” under Categories. This redu…

01/07/2021

Our latest annual Investor Letter is available on BCM's website.

2020 IN REVIEW 2020 was an absolutely breathtaking year in more ways than one. Financial markets certainly exhaled a long sigh of relief following what was the fastest bear market in history (just 20 days) followed immediately by the fastest recovery ever (in 126 days). The global equity market ende...

10/29/2020

If it's too good to be true, then...

Beam Financial attracted customers with promises of higher interest rates on their savings. But after their mobile app temporarily went down in September, and amid complaints over lackluster customer service, some clients are eager to withdraw their money. Weeks after those requests, they're still w...

08/11/2020

For what it's worth, negative inflation in Germany means negative real Bund yields are less negative.