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[AI Industry Narrative Tracking]Industry narrative begins to recover.Since August 13, AI narrative has lacked further ca...
10/12/2025

[AI Industry Narrative Tracking]
Industry narrative begins to recover.
Since August 13, AI narrative has lacked further catalysts, as from the token processing narrative proposed in Microsoft's Q1 earnings report to the substantial increase in capital expenditure by the Big 4 in Q2, which pushed the prices of AI hardware/Big 4 to a phased high.
From August 13 to September 7, AI hardware/Big 4 stocks
Overall prices declined (although individual companies, AVGO and NBIS, stood out as bright spots)
point).
But as we have always emphasized, this round of AI narrative has repeated itself
Previously, prices were pushed up - investors' anxiety demanded AI monetization - prices declined
The cycle of decline - investors buying.
Moreover, the concerns of investors in this round are significantly less than those in July 2024
and October 2024 - February 2025.
Starting from September 9, AI narrative began to recover, due to ORCL's better-than-expected performance guidance, NBIS's large order from Microsoft, the catalysis of Goldman Sachs Commu+ Tech Conference, and NVDA's launch of new inference solutions. Considering the considerable upside, some discretionary investors will increase their positions.

[JOLTS Job Openings]Data: 7.18 million in July, 7.35 million in June (revised down from 7.43 million to 7.35 million in ...
10/12/2025

[JOLTS Job Openings]

Data: 7.18 million in July, 7.35 million in June (revised down from 7.43 million to 7.35 million in June)

Interpretation: It aligns with the narrative of the continued softening of the labor market, is consistent with the current characteristics of the labor market featuring "low hiring and low firing," and is in line with the risks of this labor market pointed out by Powell at Jackson Hole.

"Overall, although the labor market appears to be in a state of balance, this is a peculiar state of equilibrium caused by a simultaneous and significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand. This unusual situation indicates that the downside risks to employment are rising. And if these risks materialize, they could quickly manifest in the form of a sharp increase in layoffs and a rise in the unemployment rate."

Reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts. Stocks, bonds, and gold assets reacted typically and significantly

[Summary of the capital flow situation in the US stock market]The negative factors are:The positions of CTA/Vol Control ...
10/12/2025

[Summary of the capital flow situation in the US stock market]

The negative factors are:
The positions of CTA/Vol Control Fund and corporate buybacks (which will gradually decrease starting from September 4th).

The favorable factors are:
The positions of discretionary traders and the gamma of market makers.

Front-running and seasonal factors:
September of this year has already been front-run, meaning that some of the selling pressure has been released in advance.

Interest rate cuts and macroeconomic data are the determining factors:
Before the non-farm payroll on September 5th, the CPI on September 11th, and the FOMC meeting on September 18th, there will be a trend of risk aversion / slight decline -> rise, with an overall upward grind.

After the interest rate cut on September 18th, the market will temporarily lose direction, waiting for the next catalyst.

After the FOMC meeting on September 18, 2024, the market index remained stable at 5702 until the end of the month. It was not until November 5, when Trump won the election, that a new round of rise was initiated.

NVDA Earnings Report Analysis2Q this quarterRevenue: 46.7B Before earnings report: "Estimated 46B (Timothy Arcuri) to 46...
10/12/2025

NVDA Earnings Report Analysis
2Q this quarter
Revenue: 46.7B
Before earnings report: "Estimated 46B (Timothy Arcuri) to 46.6B (Joseph Moore)"
Exceed expectations
Income Composition
Data center (computing + gaming): 41.1B (pre-earnings estimate: Data center 40B)
Computing: 33.8B (various GPUs) (before earnings report: 35B) (lower than last quarter's 34.1B)
Interconnection: 7.25B (Before earnings report: Interconnection 5B)
Games: 4.28B (Before earnings report: Games 2.5 - 3B)
Other: 1.18B (Before earnings report: Other 1.5 - 2B)
Conclusion: Overall performance exceeded expectations. With the provision for H20 losses in the previous quarter and the ramping up of Blackwell's production capacity, the profit margin naturally rebounded.
Stock price reaction after earnings report:
Immediately after the earnings report, it dropped 5%, then narrowed to a decline of less than 3%, around 176.
Reasons for the decline:
Next quarter's revenue guidance falls short of the expected upper limit.
High positioning (9/10).
Funding support exhaustion in early September/Concerns about a pullback in early September.
Concerns about macro data ahead of the September 18 FOMC meeting.

Last Friday, the US stock market rose across the board based on Powell's speech: the S&P 500 rose by 1.54%, QQQ rose by ...
10/12/2025

Last Friday, the US stock market rose across the board based on Powell's speech: the S&P 500 rose by 1.54%, QQQ rose by 1.54%, and IWM (the small and medium-sized stock index) soared by 3.92%. Have you noticed anything?
First: Big tech stocks did not lead the rally
Last Friday, the increase in QQQ was almost the same as that in SPY. This rally was not led by the usual super-large tech stocks (such as MSFT, AAPL, NVDA).
Second: The sharp rise in IWM indicates that small and medium-sized stocks are already reflecting the expectation of interest rate cuts
IWM rose by nearly 4%, which is a very strong signal. Because small and medium-sized stocks are always highly sensitive to capital, only when the market expects a significant interest rate cut will IWM perform so prominently.
Third: The Dow Jones Index DIA rose more than QQQ, indicating a market shift
Last Friday, DIA rose by 1.94%, higher than QQQ's 1.54%. The components of the Dow Jones Index are traditional large-cap blue chips, industrial, financial, and healthcare sectors, while QQQ represents super-large tech stocks. After the speech, the market sent a clear signal: if the Federal Reserve really enters a rate-cutting phase, market capital will start to shift from super-large tech stocks to other sectors, including industrial, energy, consumer, and real estate.

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