10/12/2026
Last week saw gains for the unmanaged major market indices with the exception of the smaller cap heavy Russell 2000. The S&P 500 led the way gaining one and fifteen hundredths of a percent with the Russell 2000 slipping just over nine tenths of a percent. The yield on the Ten Year Treasury bond slipped four hundredths of a percent interrupting the recent meteoric climb in yields. Gold rallied one and two tenths of a percent while the dollar gained almost three tenths of a percent. Oil slipped eight hundredths of a percent.
While there was not a lot of economic news last week, there was no shortage of news. The service sector of the economy pushed higher at a rate not seen in five years. The surge in growth was married to significant price pressure with business price increases growing at their fastest rare in four years. Trade figures from August showed the trade deficit has increased by over nineteen percent from the previous year; this increase is further evidence that the administration’s policy of tariffs with a stated goal of reducing the trade deficit has been an abject failure. Compounding this we saw the New York Federal Reserve Bank issue a report blaming the surge in inflation on the tariffs. According to the study shoppers saw goods increase by almost three percent due to inflation and that without the tariffs the costs of many goods would have pulled back. Previously a study by the New York Fed found that more than ninety percent of the cost of the tariffs had been passed on to consumers.
This week there is no shortage of economic releases. Tomorrow will see data on existing home sales, Wednesday will give a peek at the Consumer Price Index for September with Producer Prices being released on Thursday. The week closes out with figures on Import and Export prices as well as industrial production. This week may help illuminate the impact of higher rates on housing and if the continued conflict in the Middle East is still contributing to inflation.
Some weeks it is a struggle to come up with a topic for this update. Other weeks the challenge is narrowing down on a topic. This week I thought I would address the sketchy deal the administration has made with Russia for a negligible amount of diesel from unknown sources.
After new trade restrictions were passed by Congress prohibiting energy trading with Russia, this administration which seemingly has a fondness for Vladimir Putin defied the law and made a deal to a three hundred thousand tons of diesel to the global markets. Usually oil, gas and diesel are spoken of in terms of barrels and not tons. One ton of diesel is roughly equivalent to eight barrels. Doing the math and comparing it to the global demand for diesel and one would quickly come to the conclusion that this amount is about as significant as a fart in a hurricane and only add about one quarter of one day’s needs globally. Let’s not forget that Russia is accused of supplying intelligence to Iran that may have been used to target American bases in the Middle East, and it shouldn’t be forgotten that Russia has a stated ban on diesel exports due to internal shortages.
Where is this diesel coming from when Russia has a shortage? There are reports of Iranian tanker trucks entering into southern Russia. It takes no imagination to think that Russia might be buying Iranian petroleum products, mixing them so that the point of origin would be obscured and then selling them to the world giving both Russia and Iran hard currency needed to advance their military. It may be true that the world is buying Iranian diesel from Russia because of a deal by a weak American president. I never read the “Art of the Deal” but if someone could direct me to this section of the book I would appreciate it. The American people were told that this likely illegal deal was needed because of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining capacity. This is a lie and intended to deflect blame from the administration’s disaster in Iran that continues to fester.
Far more refiing capacity has been lost in the Middle East than in Russia, but it is Ukraine’s fault for defending itself against an illegal war of aggression waged by Putin. Blaming Ukraine would appear to be victim blaming in the most classic sense and is abhorrent. Maybe a little less so than a public ex*****on but still not a good look for the United States of America. One should also remember we were sold that this war between Russia and Ukraine would be over within one day of this president taking office which if he kept that promise, Russia would not have lost their refinery capacity. Similarly the refining capacity in the Middle East would be intact if the president had kept his promise of no new wars. As I said in March that one of the clear winners of this conflict with Iran was Russia and they keep winning. So much winning that frankly I am tired of Russia winning.
This was going to be the subject for today. Then the phone rang Friday afternoon. I saw that the call was from area code 202, Washington D.C. I was busy. I was under a deadline, but had time to take a phone call. While a call from the District is not normal it is not unheard of either as the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards is headquartered there as are other organizations that I am affiliated with or support.
After the standard greeting, “Good afternoon Crest Financial LLC, this is Doug Richards.”, the caller identified themselves as being employed by the Wireless Telecommunications Bureau of the Federal Communications Commission. I was informed that in June someone using my information purchased a new phone and number in Washington D.C. in my name and they had used that phone to commit thousands of despicable crimes involving children. They had my attention. However I was skeptical. Early in my career there was another Douglas Richards in my industry who had been in the Washington D.C. office on a different te****le of the same corporate octopus I was part of at the time. There had to be an explanation. Apparently it was not.
The caller gravely informed me that because I had not responded to either of the two written requests sent to my address, my phone lines would be deactivated while the matter was investigated. My business, and my family would not have phones or internet. There were no letter sent or received.
It is Friday. I am trying to finish a project. Now the prospect of having our company’s and my family’s digital communications cut off was being thrust upon me. Uninvited!This was in addition to being accused of possibly having some level of involvement in an operation that was exploiting children at a scale that could have meant losing my freedom for the rest of my life.
A real jolt to say the least. This was the last thing I expected at ten before two on a Friday afternoon. It’s been twenty or more years since I have been to D.C. and so I was not worried about spending my life in the gray bar hotel. Identity theft was in the front seat at that moment as to how this might tied to me. However I remained skeptical.
I asked to speak to a supervisor and was transferred to someone named John Lockwood who identified themselves as being an assistant bureau chief at the Wireless Telecommunications Bureau. After furnishing their employee identification number they directed me to the official government website that listed John Lockwood as an assistant bureau chief. This was a waving red flag. The FCC has fifteen hundred employees and I would guess that the WTB has at least a few hundred employees. To be at the assistant bureau chief rung on the ladder seemed a stretch but then I was being told that I might be part of a conspiracy that could lock me up for a few thousand years if I was lucky.
At this point I had given no information. They knew may name, address and phone number. This was the only information about me that had been revealed by anyone on the call.
To prevent my phone from being shut off in the next two hours I would need to get a Police Complaint Certificate from the Washington D.C. Metro Police clearing me of my involvement and attesting that I was the victim of identity theft. This could easily be handled at the D.C. station Mr. Lockwood informed me. All well and good except I am not going to D.C. to resolve this. Now at this point Mr. Lockwood is generously offering to help resolve this and tells me that this sounds like identity theft. Lockwood then proceeds to tell me that sadly this is very common and wants to see things resolved. Because I am in Oregon, and obviously won’t be able to go to a police station that he could transfer me directly to the D.C. Police. So helpful! Another red flag.
Still no information has been given by me. Through the entirety of this call I said repeatedly that this does not pass the sniff test and that it really felt like a scam. However I acquiesced and was transferred to the police. The call was taken by an Officer Jones of the D.C. Metro Police Department. I asked Officer Jones for his badge number and was given a number. I might use This number if I buy a lottery ticket. Then I was informed that this whole matter could be resolved if I would come to the station in D.C. and completed some paperwork and then this would all be done. Keep in mind this is a Friday afternoon. By now it is past quitting time in Washington D.C. on the cusp of a three day weekend with Monday’s federal holiday. The timing and level of urgency was a red flag.
Now my Momma did not raise a dummy, but if she did it was my brother. There is no way I would voluntarily go to a policy station without the very best legal representation that I could afford when being told that my level of involvement with an enormous conspiracy that was exploiting children was undetermined. Nope. Plus I am in Oregon. Taking an Uber to the D.C. Metro Police station was an impossibility.
The ever so helpful Officer Jones said that he would check with his captain to see how this might be resolved. On the intercom I could hear the “Captain” come on and she said that identify verification and my statement could be taken via the app Snap. For reference this is the same app used by administration officials when they mistakenly included a journalist in a group chat discussing military operations. Red flags abound.
Officer Jones came back on the line and said that this could be resolved via Snap. Which was what I heard his “captain” say. Still so helpful. Remember this whole time I have been a vocal skeptic that any of this was legitimate. But with the idea that my communications would be effectively severed with my freedom to follow potentially I didn’t hang up yet. Which on an important note this is exactly what you should do if you get a call like this that raises the hairs on the back of your neck. Hang up.
But I didn’t.
I informed the ever so helpful Officer Jones that I would be more than happy to continue this conversation by my calling the D.C. Metro Police and asking the switchboard to be transferred to Officer Jones, referencing his badge number. The still ever so helpful Officer Jones said that he understood my skepticism regarding the validity of this whole conversation and assured me that he could verify his identity via Snap and that calling the station was something I was free to do but completely unnecessary and that everything could be authenticated via Snap. This was what we needed to do.
My rebuttal was no cigar cowboy. This was what he needed to have happen. What I needed was to call the station, have the main switchboard transfer my call to Officer Jones referncing his badge number, and then and only then would any sort of conversation continue. A gracious and understanding officer Jones said that he understood and that it really wasn’t necessary. Connecting via Snap would give him the opportunity to allay my concerns. I replied that so would my having my phone call transferred to him from the main switchboard. He thanked me and said he was looking forward to my call. So polite. So helpful.
As you might imagine I called the Washington D.C. Metro Police Department. The phone was answered by a friendly voice and I asked to be transferred to Officer Jones, giving his badge number and that I was following up on a matter and that my call was expected. By the reaction received on the other end of the phone this confirmed that my call was not ordinary or expected. I backed up and explained the previous twenty plus minutes on the phone, my skepticism and that was why I called.
“No baby. This is a scam. We are the police. We get warrants issued and then we find you.”
This was a remarkable scam! They did find out that I use an iPhone but that was the only information I divulged in this whole ordeal which lasted a little more than a half an hour. I should have hung up. There were four different voices, including the captain, involved in this scheme. They provided information that was publicly available and easily verified like the location of the cell phone store in Washington D.C. and the organizational chart for the Wireless Telecommunications Bureau. Additionally they provided information that might pass as credible. Employee ID and badge numbers. Plausible? Answers to numerous questions were given. Some verifiable and some plausible. Never anything more than a gentle nudge and everyone was always helpful after initial seismic shock with my livelihood and potentially my freedom being threatened. It was so smooth.
Here are my five takeaways.
Trust the little hairs on the back of your neck and the butterflies in your stomach. While our primal and instinctual warning system is not perfect, it should be listened to. For years I have told clients to trust these instincts and that if in working together these alarm bells start ringing that they need to pull the brake, share their concerns and ask questions.
Slow your roll. Scammers want to create urgency because urgency is what gets you to act. In the course of the scam call I was reminded that my account would be shut off in two hours. At one point I was informed that the call had consumed twenty minutes. It was urgent that I contacted the police and they “helped” make that happen. It was urgent for Officer Jones that I download Snap. It wasn’t urgent for me.
Don’t give anything away. Yes I did rollover after more than twenty minutes to let them know that I have an iPhone. However I did not share any information like my date of birth, email address, Social Security or drivers license numbers.
The police get warrants and find people. They do not make phone calls.
Hang up.
Stay vigilant! Thanks for reading and have a terrific week!
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