Crest Financial LLC

06/02/2026

GM, Ford and Toyota have said they are planning for new-car sales to stagnate or shrink this year, as prospective buyers stay on the sidelines of the market.

06/01/2026

Last week the equities markets turned in another positive performance with the NASDAQ leading the way with gains in excess of two and a third percent. Foreign stocks as measured by the Global Dow were the laggards up just over a third of a percent. The yield on the Ten Year treasury fell a tenth of a percent. Both the Dollar and Oil gave up ground on news of an “imminent” extension of the ceasefire with Iran with the Dollar giving up almost four tenths of a percent and Oil down more than eight percent for the week. Gold found some of its shine climbing almost one and four tenths percent.

On the economics front we saw the second GDP estimate for the first quarter revised down to an anemic annualized rate of one and six tenths percent. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is up three and eight tenths percent which continues to exceed the Federal Reserve’s target of two percent. For the first time since the pandemic inflation outpaced wage growth and consumers are feeling the pinch with auto loan defaults and credit card delinquencies approaching levels not seen since the Great Recession. Manufacturing orders increased for the second consecutive month while sales of new single family homes declined and continue to face pressure due to interest rates and affordability concerns. This week’s employment report will be closely watched to see if the labor market can rebound.

With the upcoming midterm elections, inflation and rising costs continue to be a significant concern. Last week research released from the Brookings Institution showed that over forty-five percent of families did not earn enough income to cover their basic needs in 2024. On the backs this administration’s of tariffs and rising fuel costs due to their choice to attack Iran, it is hard to fathom that this situation has improved. Also last week the executives of oil giants and Exxon and Chevron both warned that higher oil and gas prices may be only weeks away as reserves collapse. This is in spite of governments tapping their strategic petroleum reserves in an attempt to keep prices low in the face of the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On top of this we have learned this morning that talks with Iran have collapsed as Iran does not trust this administration as having negotiated in good faith.

It is difficult to envision a quick reversal in energy prices as it is far more complicated than just flipping a switch. Because of their reliance on oil and gas coming through the Strait of Hormuz, Asia may be more severely impacted than Europe or the United States. That said it is an interconnected world and while the pain may be worse for Asian economies, it will not be contained. Rising oil prices will ripple throughout the global economy adding fuel to this environment of stagflation.

While it is safe to say we have been wary of the slowing economy and job market in the face of rising prices, we have been reluctant to make changes to our model allocations. However as there seems to be no viable off ramp for the conflict with Iran in sight and we believe that it is appropriate at this juncture to explore strategies to derisk our allocations. Our prescription is to increase the quality and shorten the duration for our fixed income holdings. With equities we will continue to look towards consumer staples, value oriented funds and overseas a concentration on Europe. There is of course a risk to this strategy should the markets continue to ignore the concerns outlined above and maintain their upwards trajectory. However I am reminded of the words of one of my mentors who said, “Bears make money. Bulls make money. Hogs get slaughtered.”

If you have questions about what risks are inside of your portfolio we are here to help. Feel free to reach out and schedule some time for a review. If it has been a while since you have rebalanced your investments, now is a great time! Rebalancing is part of the regular maintenance for your investments to keep your risk levels in check. Hit us up with any questions or concerns. Thanks for reading and have a terrific week!

The latest issue of Market Week is available.

06/01/2026

Labor’s share of economic output just hit an all-time low, while the profit share neared a record. It helps explain why consumers feel so glum.

05/31/2026

Because of your chat history, AI may keep offering you advice based on information that may be dated—or wasn’t even about you in the first place.

05/30/2026

Dr. Doug Lucas, Orthopedic Surgeon; Clinical Lead, Bone Health & Longevity at LifeMD says osteoporosis affects millions of women, yet bone health still feels under-discussed.

05/29/2026

A new Indeed report suggests there will still be job growth, but not in all fields. Here’s how employers and workers must adapt to avoid 8% unemployment.

05/28/2026

Certain phrases in your company and job descriptions may signal a culture that's driving top talent away. Here's what to listen for — and how to fix it.

05/27/2026

Explore how everyday Google searches reveal common human experiences in parenting, health, and social issues.

05/26/2026

Last week again saw the equities markets rise on a mixture of hopium and AI fevered dreams. Small cap stocks and the Global Dow led the way driven by hopes that the conflict with Iran was nearing a resolution. Building on these hopes, the yield on the Ten Year Treasury eased four hundredths of a percent and Oil gave up nearly five percent. Gold retreated nearly two thirds of a percent and the Dollar was largely flat retreating one one hundredth of a percent.

There was not a lot of economics data last week. The biggest release showed residential building permits were up in April relative to March but have showed a decline in the last year. Building permits for single family homes were the opposite of this showing a decline for April but an improvement over the last twelve months. The figures for new claims showed a small decrease week over week and the “no hire and no fire” situation continues in the labor market. Gas prices were down a penny compared to the previous week but remain elevated relative to last year due to the conflict in Iran. This week there will be data released on durable goods orders, personal income and outlays, new home sales and the second estimate for GDP for the first quarter of this year.

On the heels of the Memorial Day Holiday we continue to receive mixed signals regarding a long term deal with Iran. While the administration is continuing their message of optimism (as they have for the last few weeks) that we are on the cusp of a deal, Iran has been markedly more reserved. Time favors Iran in this situation as oil and gas supplies will be severely strained in the next few weeks if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully opened. Like the “Liberation Day Tariffs” last year spawned an acronym (TACO or Trump Always Chickens Out), the Iran conflict has given rise to a new acronym; NACHO or Not A Chance Hormuz Opens. Iran’s ability to disrupt traffic in the Strait takes far less effort on their part relative to the ongoing blockade by the U.S. Navy. Early indications are that the negotiations may provide Iran with a sizable financial windfall and Iran may be in a better position long term relative to where they were on February 26th. The neocon element in Congress has serious concerns about the negotiation terms that have been leaked as does Israel. The reality is likely that a deal is not as close as the administration believes it to be.

Stepping back and looking at our domestic economy there are some troubling signs as credit card, auto loan and student loan delinquencies continue to rise and are approaching levels not seen since the Great Recession. This is with less than twelve weeks of higher oil and gas prices. If prices remain elevated the level of pain may spread. What has been called a K shaped economy where the top ten to twenty percent of earners are accounting for nearly half of consumer spending may falter if oil prices remain elevated or if we see a significant retreat in equity prices. In the K shaped economy the upward arm of the K are these high earners who have been largely immune to the shocks to the energy market and higher interest rates; the downward arm represents the vast majority of our citizenry who are having real challenges making ends meet in the face of higher inflation. Due to rising inflation many analysts have taken the possibility of any rates cuts for the balance of the year off the table and the likelihood of a rate hike in July has increased.

Depending on where you are socioeconomically speaking you may be very familiar with the struggles to make ends meet or you may be fortunate to not be impacted yet. The longer fuel prices remain elevated the greater the risk is that more people will begin to feel the economic pain. This is no bueno for incumbents in Congress in this election year and will add to the pressure to make a deal to end the Iranian conflict. In the long term this bifurcated economy driven by extreme wealth inequality poses social and political risks and may not be sustainable. Time will tell.

Investors have always faced uncertainty and it remains true that having a plan may give you a base line to reference your progress towards your goals and to evaluate potential changes. Regardless of how things unfold we are here to help. Thanks for reading and I hope you have a fantastic week!

The latest issue of Market Week is available.

05/26/2026

Here are practical strategies investors can use to reduce or eliminate capital-gains taxes when they rebalance their portfolios.