Dylan Niska, nmls 342545 - Tradition Mortgage, nmls 286998

09/17/2026

Mortgage Bonds Rally After Fed Meeting

The Bond market is looking much better this morning as investors have had some time to digest yesterday’s Fed meeting.

Bonds initially reacted positively to the rate hike, sold off during Warsh’s press conference, but are now rallying as markets become more comfortable that the Fed is serious about getting inflation under control.

Lower oil prices are also helping the move.

Here’s what matters:

• Oil Prices: Lower oil prices are helping Mortgage Bonds this morning by easing some concerns about future inflation.

• Housing Starts: Housing Starts fell 3% in August, but the headline is a little misleading. The entire decline came from multi-family construction.

• Single-Family Housing: Single-family Housing Starts actually jumped 8%, reaching their highest level since March. That’s a positive sign for future housing supply.

• Jobless Claims: Weekly Jobless Claims came in basically in line with expectations and had little impact on markets.

• Mortgage Rates: Yesterday’s Fed meeting is another good reminder that a Fed rate hike does not automatically mean higher mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are driven more directly by longer-term Bond yields. If the Bond market believes the Fed is serious about controlling inflation, longer-term yields — and mortgage rates — can actually improve.

Bottom line: The Fed may be raising short-term rates, but that doesn’t necessarily mean mortgage rates have to move higher. Today’s Bond market action is a good example of why it’s important to watch the entire rate environment rather than focusing solely on the Fed’s headline decision.

www.dylanniska.com

Great process! We really appreciated Dylan's experience and communication throughout the entire process. We'd 100% recommend Dylan and the entire team at Tradition to our friends and family.

09/14/2026

09/11/2026

Mortgage Bonds Hold Up After Mixed CPI Report

It’s been a volatile morning, but Mortgage Bonds are holding up fairly well as lower oil prices help offset a mixed CPI report.

Inflation wasn’t necessarily great, but the year-over-year Core CPI reading continues to move in the right direction. Today’s report likely keeps the Fed on track for a rate hike next week — and interestingly, Bonds seem relatively comfortable with that for now.

Here’s what matters:

• CPI: August CPI rose 0.4%, right in line with expectations, while annual inflation held steady at 3.4%.

• Core CPI: The monthly reading came in a little hotter than expected, but year-over-year Core CPI fell to 2.4%, the lowest level since March 2021.

• Oil Prices: Lower oil prices are providing some relief for Mortgage Bonds and taking pressure off future inflation expectations.

• Fed Outlook: Today’s CPI report likely solidifies a rate hike next week, barring a major change before the Fed meeting.

• Mortgage Bonds: Despite higher rate-hike expectations, Bonds are reacting fairly well. The market may actually prefer a Fed that is willing to address inflation rather than allowing it to remain elevated.

Bottom line: Today’s CPI report wasn’t perfect, but the continued improvement in year-over-year Core inflation is encouraging. Mortgage Bonds are holding up better than expected, and next week’s Fed decision will be the next major catalyst for mortgage rates.

www.dylanniska.com

Great process! We really appreciated Dylan's experience and communication throughout the entire process. We'd 100% recommend Dylan and the entire team at Tradition to our friends and family.

09/10/2026

Markets Under Pressure Ahead of CPI

Markets are under some pressure this morning as higher oil prices and today’s PPI report push Treasury yields higher.

Producer inflation came in as expected for August, but the year-over-year numbers moved higher, keeping inflation concerns alive heading into tomorrow’s very important CPI report.

Here’s what matters:

• PPI: Producer prices rose 0.4% in August, matching expectations, but annual producer inflation increased to 5.4%.

• Core PPI: Core producer inflation also moved higher to 4.6% year over year, showing there is still inflation pressure beneath the surface.

• Oil Prices: WTI is approaching $100 per barrel, while Brent is around $105 as Middle East supply concerns continue to push prices higher.

• Tomorrow’s CPI Report: This is the big one. CPI will be the final major inflation reading before next week’s Fed meeting and could have a significant impact on the direction of mortgage rates.

Bottom line: Higher oil prices and rising producer inflation are putting pressure on Mortgage Bonds today. A tame CPI report tomorrow would be very welcome and could provide some relief.

All eyes are on CPI.

www.dylanniska.com

Great process! We really appreciated Dylan's experience and communication throughout the entire process. We'd 100% recommend Dylan and the entire team at Tradition to our friends and family.

09/09/2026

Mortgage Bonds at a Critical Level

Mortgage Bonds are sitting at an important technical level this morning as markets weigh two competing forces.

Oil prices continue to climb as tensions with Iran escalate, keeping inflation concerns front and center. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce expanded Treasury buybacks that could provide some much-needed support for Bonds.

Here’s what matters:

• Treasury Buybacks: Bessent is expected to announce the size of expanded Treasury buybacks. If the program is larger than anticipated, it could provide meaningful support for Mortgage Bonds.

• Oil Prices: Oil continues to move higher as tensions with Iran escalate, adding another layer of inflation pressure.

• Tomorrow’s CPI Report: This is the big one. With strong jobs data and higher oil prices already working against Bonds, a tame inflation reading would be very welcome.

• Mortgage Rates: Treasury buybacks could provide some support, but right now, oil prices and tomorrow’s inflation data remain the bigger risks.

Bottom line: Mortgage Bonds are at an important technical level, and tomorrow’s CPI report could determine which direction we go next.

All eyes are on inflation.

09/08/2026

Markets Start the Week Under Pressure

Markets are starting the week under pressure as escalating tensions with Iran push oil prices above $93 per barrel, bringing inflation concerns right back into focus.

After Friday’s strong Jobs Report, this week’s CPI data becomes even more important in determining whether the Fed has enough reason to raise rates at next week’s meeting.

Here’s what matters:

• Oil Prices: Oil has climbed above $93 per barrel as tensions with Iran escalate, putting pressure on Mortgage Bonds and adding to inflation concerns.

• CPI: This week’s inflation report is critical. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading, combined with Friday’s strong Jobs Report, could make a September rate hike much more likely.

• Fed Outlook: A tame CPI reading could change the conversation and give the Fed a reason to remain patient despite the stronger labor-market data.

• Housing: Home prices continue to show resiliency, with forecasts calling for additional appreciation despite higher mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges.

Bottom line: This is a big week for mortgage rates. The combination of inflation, oil prices and a strong labor market could put additional pressure on the Fed to act.

All eyes are on CPI.

09/03/2026

Mortgage Bonds Get a Boost Ahead of Jobs Report

Mortgage Bonds are getting a nice boost this morning after Fed Governor Waller signaled that he is leaning toward keeping rates unchanged at the September meeting.

That, combined with more signs of a softening labor market, has helped push Treasury yields lower heading into tomorrow’s very important Jobs Report.

Here’s what matters:

• Fed Outlook: Waller said he is seeing signs of disinflation and currently favors leaving rates unchanged in September, helping Mortgage Bonds rally.

• Labor Market: Revelio estimates just 37,000 jobs were created in August, another indication that the labor market may be weaker than the headline numbers suggest.

• Economic Data: Weekly Jobless Claims came in near expectations, while the ISM Services Index was stronger than expected at 55.4.

• Tomorrow’s Jobs Report: The BLS Jobs Report is the big one. Another weak employment report could further reduce the odds of a September rate hike and give Mortgage Bonds more room to rally.

Bottom line: The bond market is getting some relief today, but tomorrow’s Jobs Report could be a major catalyst for mortgage rates.

09/02/2026

Labor Market Back in Focus

The labor market is back in focus this morning after ADP reported the weakest private-sector job growth in seven months.

The softer jobs picture could make it harder for the Fed to justify a September rate hike. However, Treasury yields remain elevated and are testing an important technical ceiling.

Here’s what matters:

• ADP Jobs: Private-sector employers added just 38,000 jobs in August, below expectations and the weakest pace since January.

• Fed Outlook: NY Fed President John Williams continues to describe the labor market as stable, supporting a more patient approach rather than rushing into a September hike.

• Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield is testing an important ceiling near 4.80%. A break above that level could put additional pressure on Mortgage Bonds and mortgage rates.

• Friday’s Jobs Report: The BLS Jobs Report is now even more important. Another weak employment number could significantly change expectations for the Fed’s September decision and potentially provide some relief for Mortgage Bonds.

Bottom line: The labor market is showing signs of weakness, but the bond market still has plenty of pressure to deal with.

Friday’s Jobs Report could be the next major catalyst for mortgage rates.