Dylan Niska, nmls 342545 - Tradition Mortgage, nmls 286998

11/02/2026

Weekly Update

10/28/2026

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10/26/2026

10/15/2026

Mortgage Rates Get Some Encouraging News

Mortgage rates may be getting a little breathing room this morning, even though inflation remains stubbornly high.

The big story? Investors are growing concerned about expensive AI stocks and moving some of their money into safer investments like Bonds. That shift is helping the Bond market recover and could create some relief for mortgage rates.

Here's what matters:

• Investors Seek Safety: Concerns about the stock market are pushing investors toward Bonds, helping support the market that influences mortgage rates.

• Inflation Is Still a Concern: Wholesale prices rose more than expected, a reminder that inflation hasn't been fully brought under control.

• Consumers Keep Spending: Retail Sales rose 0.8%, twice what economists expected. Strong spending is good for the economy, but it can also make it harder for inflation to cool.

• Treasury Yields Fall: The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to around 5.09%. When these yields move lower, it can help mortgage rates improve, although the two don't move in perfect lockstep.

Mortgage Rate Takeaway

This is encouraging news, but it's too early to call it a lasting trend. Mortgage rates need the Bond market to keep improving before we can expect more meaningful relief.

If you're planning to buy a home, refinance, or move in the coming months, don't wait for headlines to tell you when to act. Let's review your options and identify what makes sense for your situation today, while keeping an eye out for opportunities if rates improve.

www.dylanniska.com

10/13/2026

Mortgage Bonds Show Signs of Stabilizing — CPI Is the Next Test

Mortgage Bonds are showing encouraging signs that Treasury yields may have found a near-term ceiling. That’s a positive development for mortgage rates, but the next move will depend heavily on inflation data.

Tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is the key event to watch. With inflation and Federal Reserve expectations continuing to drive the market, the report could determine whether Bonds extend their recent improvement or give back those gains.

Here’s what matters:

• Treasury Yields: Yields appear to be stabilizing near recent highs. A continued move lower would be a positive sign for mortgage rates.

• CPI Report: A cooler-than-expected inflation reading could push Mortgage Bonds higher and create room for mortgage rates to improve. A hotter report could quickly reverse recent gains.

• Housing Market: Existing Home Sales came in above expectations, showing some resilience. However, overall activity remains sluggish as elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges continue to weigh on buyers.

Mortgage Rate Takeaway

The market may be approaching an important turning point, but we need confirmation. A cooler CPI report could help Treasury yields move lower and create an opportunity for mortgage rates to improve. Hotter inflation could put renewed pressure on rates.

Thinking about buying a home, refinancing, or making a move in the near future? Let’s review your options now so you’re prepared to act if rates improve. You don’t have to wait for rates to drop to put a smart mortgage strategy in place.

10/01/2026

Continued Pressure on Mortgage Bonds

Mortgage Bonds remain under pressure this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield near its highest level since 2002.

Rising Bond market volatility is also widening mortgage spreads, adding another layer of pressure to mortgage rates. Today’s economic data was mixed, so all eyes now turn to tomorrow’s BLS Jobs Report, which could help set the tone for October.

Here’s what matters:

• Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury remains at historically high levels, keeping significant pressure on Mortgage Bonds and mortgage rates.

• Manufacturing: ISM Manufacturing came in at 54.5, slightly below expectations, showing some moderation in manufacturing activity.

• Construction Spending: Construction Spending rose 0.9%, much stronger than expected, while Weekly Jobless Claims were essentially in line.

• Tomorrow’s Jobs Report: The BLS Jobs Report is the big one. A softer employment report could help calm Treasury yields and give Mortgage Bonds some much-needed relief. Another strong report could keep rates under pressure.

Mortgage Rate Takeaway: Mortgage rates are facing significant headwinds right now. To see meaningful improvement, we need to see Treasury yields move lower and mortgage spreads tighten. Tomorrow’s Jobs Report could be an important catalyst in either direction.

A softer jobs report would be a welcome development for mortgage rates.

[www.dylanniska.com](http://www.dylanniska.com)

09/24/2026

Bonds Under Pressure as Yields Break Above 5%

Mortgage Bonds are under pressure this morning as higher oil prices and surprisingly strong economic data push Treasury yields higher.

The 10-year Treasury had been holding around the important 5% level, but a much stronger-than-expected PMI report quickly pushed yields above that threshold and increased expectations for additional Fed rate hikes.

Here’s what matters:

• Economic Data: Manufacturing and Services PMI came in surprisingly strong, with both reaching their highest levels in years and showing the economy remains resilient.

• Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury jumped from around 5% to above 5.04% immediately following the PMI report, putting additional pressure on Mortgage Bonds and mortgage rates.

• Fed Outlook: Markets are increasing expectations for additional Fed hikes, with stronger economic data giving the Fed more room to remain aggressive in its fight against inflation.

• Housing: Home values remain relatively stable despite higher mortgage rates and slower transaction volume, showing continued resilience in the housing market.

• The 5% Level: For mortgage rates, getting the 10-year Treasury back below 5% remains important. Until that happens, we should expect mortgage rates to remain under some pressure.

Bottom line: Strong economic data is giving the Bond market another challenge. The 5% level on the 10-year Treasury remains the key technical level to watch.

www.dylanniska.com

Great process! We really appreciated Dylan's experience and communication throughout the entire process. We'd 100% recommend Dylan and the entire team at Tradition to our friends and family.