Kenneth Bryan Shobe

01/19/2023

Movie MegaStars Vin Diesel & Tyrese Gibson Casually Hanging Out With The 59th Mayor Of Atlanta Georgia Kasim Reed In The Turks And Caicos Islands. ⭐🤩🏝️🇹🇨

*Shared By Turks and Caicos Tv page.

12/31/2022

Is the Housing Market in a Bubble?

How Today Compares With the Great Recession

By Clare Trapasso

It’s like déjà vu in the housing market.
Just a few months ago, home prices hit record heights, investors were gobbling up scores of homes, and buyers were racing to purchase whatever they could before prices rose even further.

Then, quite suddenly, the market seemed to seize up and prices and sales began falling. Click to read more...

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/is-the-housing-market-in-a-bubble-how-indicators-today-compare-with-the-great-recession/?identityID=5754f39581f95f4c3e0012a5&MID=2022_1230_Weekly_NL&RID=3854814842&cid=eml_promo_Marketing_NonPRSL_WeeklyNL_cons.16033622_2022_1230_Weekly_NL-article1-blogs_trends

Plus, if you need help navigating these difficult times reach out to Bryan Shobe @ bryanshobe.com.

The Fed chair says the housing market is in a bubble. But the market is very different from the run-up to the Great Recession. Here's what we know.

12/30/2022

WHAT DOES 2023 FINANICALLY HAVE IN STORE FOR BUSINESS

As we close out a difficult 2022 what does business and real estate markets have to look forward to in 2023. In my opinion, well more of the same as in 2023. The new problem we have now, is can we trust government statistics being published. (Example was the 2nd quarter job numbers published as growing by 1 million in the quarter and then being adjusted after the mid-term election to only 10,000). The false numbers led the fed to be more aggressive in raising rates because they wanted to slow down job growth and this will eventually affect the economy in a negative way. This is a new very dangerous wrinkle out of Washington.

The following are my concern points for 2023:

• Inflation remaining higher than the Fed, business, or consumers desire. This could lead to continued increases in the Fed rate

• Energy costs, these will continue to feel the negative effect of the current administration move to drive up energy costs to promote green energy. This will affect inflation and all areas of the economy. However, if we go into a deeper than expected rescission this will reduce the demand for energy products.

• China, how serious will the COVID outbreak become in China. What will that do to the supply chain products that fuel some of the US and world economy. This crisis is just unfolding as I write this and will continue to monitor this situation in 2023.

• The first two points will continue to put upward pressure on the Fed to continue to raise interest rates. The higher they go the larger the risk of a major recession in 2023. With the very high debt load of the United States this is a scary situation going forward. The country needs growth to be able to continue to service the debt. Plus, higher interest rates raise the interest rate cost of the debt. Yes, some economists look at inflation as a way to get out of debt crisis, but this only works if the government cuts back spending. The recent budget passed shows they are not willing to be serious about cutting back or slowing government spending.

So, with these major items as concern points, to me it looks like we will have a recession in 2023. How deep and how long depends on how these many items roll-out during the 1st quarter. So, with these items in place, I would suggest caution in the New Year.

To see additional Blogs by Mr. Shobe please visit his website www.bryanshobe.com and you can reach him by email or message him on Facebook.

11/21/2022

Auditors Pessimistic About the Next 12 Months

This is an article from another source saying very similar things to what I have been referring to with the US economy and inflation and fuel concerns.

https://www.cfodive.com/news/most-auditors-pessimistic-economy-caq-inflation/636754/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202022-11-17%20CFO%20Dive%20%5Bissue:46082%5D&utm_term=CFO%20Dive

Please reach out to me if you need assistance getting through this period with financial advice or filling a position in a start-up fast growth company. I have extensive experience in this area.

Bryan Shobe
www.bryanshobe.com
[email protected]

Inflation ranks as the top threat to U.S. companies in the coming months, according to auditors surveyed by the Center for Audit Quality.

11/15/2022

Slower Inflation Numbers Announced Today
Is This Lull Before the Storm

The Wholesale inflation numbers slowed to 8.3 percent year over year increase. While this is slower than increases during the first half of the year, is this a trend to lower inflation or a lull before energy prices and inflations take off again?

Currently, West Texas crude is $86 a barrel. However, many key crude experts are predicting crude to go back up to $115 a barrel over the next couple of months. This is due to the December 1st stoppage of crude sales from Russia and President Biden stopping the drawdown of the US Strategic Oil reserves. President Biden continues to press towards no more drilling and stopping the production of coal to continue the march towards Green Energy production in the US. If crude oil was to increase to $115 a barrel, it would be over a 30% increase in the cost of crude.

As we go into winter, this could have a chilling effect on the current trend of inflation cooling and reigniting upward pressure on inflation and the Federal Reserve staying aggressive with increasing rates.

So, if you are a consumer looking to borrow or a business needing funding you have a dilemma. Do you believe the current trend to lower inflation or return to higher fuel prices and higher inflation. If you need assistance with answers to this dilemma, please feel free to reach out and see how I may help you develop a plan.

Bryan Shobe
November 15, 2022
www.bryanshobe.com
email: [email protected]

11/10/2022

CPI Update…
…. False Flag?

The government released the new CPI numbers today (Nov. 10, 2022) showing inflation slowed slightly to an increase of 0.4 percent over the prior month and 7.7 percent increase in the last 12 months. The stock market took this as a sign that the Feds will slow down increases of interest rates and took off today.

This could be a false flag. The push of inflation by rising fuel prices is set to start up again during December. The last sales from the petroleum reserves are set for December. The massive draw down of the strategic petroleum reserves for political purposes regarding the mid-term elections is over. These massive drawdowns halted the massive rise in fuel prices and gave the country a small window of prices below the peak prices earlier in the year.

Now, the elections are over and the drawdown from the strategic petroleum reserves is over for now and the President has signaled that no changes to his Green Energy move to end the use of petroleum fuels.

So, expect higher prices for fuel is coming very soon. Will prices exceed the prior highs is still to early to tell, as this depends on how fast the economy slips into a recession and how deep the recission is going to be. However, the concern is fuel prices rising high enough to raise the level of the CPI above the current range of 8.0 percent.

If the current rate of inflations reverses it slight decline, which is what makes sense, expect the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in increasing interest rates.

Bryan Shobe

November 10, 2022

www.bryanshobe.com or email [email protected]

11/09/2022

The Election Is Over…
…What Does That Mean for Inflation and Interest Rates?

The US election is behind us, and it looks like some changes to the power structure in Washington DC. The key is what does it mean to energy production and energy prices in the US. At this point, it is a little early to tell, but the changes in Washington DC may not slow down the push to green energy and the reduction of US energy production.

So as the drawdown of the US petroleum reserve winds down in December you need to look for energy prices to spike. This will affect gasoline, diesel, heating fuel and aviation fuel. A colder winter will add to this price pressure. Petroleum prices effects inflation in so many ways, so higher petroleum prices will put pressure on inflation numbers, and this will put pressure on the Fed to continue to raise interest rates.

Higher rates will affect both consumer and business borrowers. This puts pressure on the real estate market and bond markets. You need to understand as a consumer or business owner how this affects you and what actions you can take to protect yourself or at some point profit from the events in play.

Feel free to contact me at www.bryanshobe.com or [email protected]

11/03/2022

WHAT IS COMING TO THE US & CARIBBEAN ECONOMY

Time for caution is NOW, not after the rescission is in full swing. The feds signaled on Nov. 2, 2022 that they mean business in slowing the economy and job growth to combat inflation.

They have moved four times in a row with 0.75% increases in the fed rate. This is very aggressive and rarely done by the fed in the past. My concern is when the economy rolls over and heads down it will be much faster than expected.

There are so many conflicting policies going on, that when people finally lose confidence, it will have a snowball effect. Higher and higher interest rates will affect business lending and real estate. Since real estate has had a big run up with very low interest rates, buyers are going to be locked in when they want to move up. New buyers will be interest rate priced out of the market and if lenders get nervous, they will make it hard to qualify for new loans.

The initial effect to business and real estate will happen in the US market and then begin to effect to a larger degree the Caribbean markets. There is an old adage in the Caribbean, when the US catches a cold financially, the Caribbean catches pneumonia. So, while real estate and construction is still strong in the Caribbean, be careful that the market will turn down and do so fast.

If you need help in your approach to these issues, please contact me.

Bryan Shobe - Consulting
November 3, 2022
https://bryanshobe.godaddysites.com/

11/02/2022

FED AGGRESSIVELY RAISES INTEREST RATES AGAIN BY THREE QUARTERS OF ONE PERCENT

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-set-another-big-rate-hike-may-tamp-down-future-tightening-2022-11-02/

Visit my Website: https://bryanshobe.godaddysites.com/

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point as it continued to battle the worst outbreak of inflation in 40 years, but signaled future increases in borrowing costs could be made in smaller steps to account for the "cumulative tightening of monetary....

11/02/2022

NEW AIRLINE SERVING THE CARIBBEAN

It’s called Antigua Airways, and it’s a new airline that will connect a growing network of destinations in the Americas and Africa.

11/01/2022

The Caribbean Real Estate Market Stays Hot

From the palatial luxury villas in Turks & Caicos to the sleek and contemporary abodes of the Cayman Islands, international buyers are flocking toward sun and sand to reap the many benefits that stem from investing in Caribbean properties. With rising rent and mortgage rates driving up prices throug...

11/01/2022

INTEREST RATE FORECAST AFTER MID-TERMS

The key is how aggressive the Fed will be after the midterm elections are behind us. The November Fed meeting and projected increase in rates will be a key for action over the next 12 months. How aggressive will the Fed be in their efforts to cool inflation by raising interest rates.

“Today, it is inflation, the Fed’s response to elevated inflation, and resulting risk of recession, that will be what determines the market’s direction over the coming quarters,” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a recent research note.

INFLATION

On election eve, the state of the US economy is a blurry one. Job openings hit 10.7M despite Fed attempts to cool economy

The Fed has been hiking interest rates in a bid to slow the economy enough to crush inflation, but with every rate hike Wall Street grows more jittery that the central bank will go too far.

The Fed has already raised its benchmark interest rate five times this year, with the last three increases by three-quarters of a percentage point, and inflation is still accelerating. Wall Street expects another raise of three-quarters of a percentage point in November.

The last time the Fed raised interest rates so aggressively to bring down inflation was in the early 1980s, when inflation had soared to nearly 15%. That led to a cycle of alternating rate increases and cuts and volatility in the stock market. During one of the longest rate-hike cycles, which began in September 1980 and ran through May 1981, the S&P 500 gained 8.3%, although the gains evaporated by late September.

Uncertainty over how far the Fed will go in its rate-hiking campaign, how effective it will be to cool inflation and how much the economy slows will not be resolved by the outcome of next month’s elections. Until there’s more clarity on these questions, the market is likely to see more volatility in the months ahead.

“So, instead of the market being up by June or September of 2023, it’s down because the rate hikes are starting to bite and a recession ensues,” said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager with Globalt Investments. “There are so many other things going on that this is just not something that I think you want to put a lot of stock in.”