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With volatility carrying really well into the intensification of the stock market decline, we revisit our earlier letter...
04/04/2025

With volatility carrying really well into the intensification of the stock market decline, we revisit our earlier letters on trade structuring to temper portfolio volatility while not sacrificing upside potential.

http://physikinvest.substack.com

Take a look and keep an eye out for updates, including a detailed guide to trade structuring, progressing readers from beginner to advanced levels. Condensing it into an accessible format while juggling other projects has been a challenge, but we'll make it happen!

The New Financial Order

Below, we dive deep into the ongoing restructuring of policy and financial stability, also discussing , sovereign wea...
03/10/2025

Below, we dive deep into the ongoing restructuring of policy and financial stability, also discussing , sovereign wealth , and global arrangements.

Navigating this environment requires creatively layering exposure to , , , and . In ~3,000 words, we cover both the fundamental and volatility contexts that shape our perspectives and offer sample that may work well in this shifting landscape.

We wrap things up with a light-hearted conversation with Quasar Markets' Steven Orr, a White House and State Department veteran.

Check it out and let us know what you think!

The New Financial Order

Shifting liquidity, positioning, and policy shape markets' detox. Despite this, markets don’t perpetually decline in a s...
03/10/2025

Shifting liquidity, positioning, and policy shape markets' detox. Despite this, markets don’t perpetually decline in a straight line. Accordingly, we explore low-cost asymmetric opportunities to play rebounds.

But Not the Amy Winehouse Kind

We interview David Aferiat, co-founder of Trade Ideas, about his entrepreneurial journey and the future of and trading...
02/06/2025

We interview David Aferiat, co-founder of Trade Ideas, about his entrepreneurial journey and the future of and trading technology.

From building Trade Ideas—a well-known name in self-directed investing—to advising startups, Aferiat has worked at the intersection of and for about two decades.

Our conversation explored the evolution of self-directed , including the recent introduction of commission-free trades and the implications of and automation. Also, Aferiat shared a few insights on building businesses and partnerships.

You can watch the video below. The link also provides an edited transcript offering key context. We hope you enjoy this lighthearted conversation and some of our other recent letters; it is a nice break from the usual. Cheers!

From the evolution of self-directed investing to the implications of AI and automation.

One indicator we rely on is the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), which combines price and volume to provide a clear...
02/04/2025

One indicator we rely on is the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), which combines price and volume to provide a clearer view of an asset’s traded price over time.

Firms like Citadel are known to use VWAP to execute trades, minimizing market impact and achieving better prices. VWAP can be applied to various strategies, including trend identification, mean reversion, and support/resistance trading.

Thank you for reading, and stay tuned for our more informed commentaries.

AVWAP blends time, price, and volume to reveal key support and resistance levels.

Our letters often break down trade theory—how to form opinions, spot dislocations, and structure trades to capitalize on...
02/03/2025

Our letters often break down trade theory—how to form opinions, spot dislocations, and structure trades to capitalize on them. However, ex*****on is just as important as understanding the market context.

The reality? We don’t always get the luxury of testing every idea before putting capital to work. Sometimes, decisions have to be made on the spot. And more often than not, the best ones are simple by necessity.

We hope you enjoy today’s letter—let us know how you balance analysis with action! 👇

Insights from Real Trades

Last year, the alerts about the dangers of extreme momentum crowding and positioning, which can result in sharper unwind...
01/22/2025

Last year, the alerts about the dangers of extreme momentum crowding and positioning, which can result in sharper unwinds, proved true.

Several instances of volatility surged across various assets, especially in higher-beta equities and cryptocurrencies, which are significantly swayed by conventional risk and monetary policy dynamics.

In the sections below, we analyze these episodes, revealing that they involved more than mere fundamental shocks.

The risks beneath the calm.

Below, we explore Jannick Malling’s inspiring journey from a tech-savvy teen in Copenhagen to co-founder and co-CEO of P...
01/22/2025

Below, we explore Jannick Malling’s inspiring journey from a tech-savvy teen in Copenhagen to co-founder and co-CEO of Public.com. We discuss:

- The $100 trillion wealth transfer to Millennials and Gen Z.
- Public.com’s stand against PFOF and for market fairness.
- How minimal technical debt accelerates feature launches.
- Practical applications of AI in empowering retail investors.

We’re grateful to Jannick for his time. To learn more, consider watching the full episode below!

https://physikinvest.substack.com/p/jannick-malling-and-the-story-behind

Plus: How Millennials on Down are Breaking Down Financial Barriers

Vuk Vuković, the CIO and co-founder of Oraclum Capital, is acutely aware of reflexivity and fallibility’s impact on poli...
08/23/2024

Vuk Vuković, the CIO and co-founder of Oraclum Capital, is acutely aware of reflexivity and fallibility’s impact on politics and economics.

Over the past decade, he has applied his academic research in political economics to accurately predict the outcomes of the past two U.S. elections and the Brexit referendum, as well as influence policy in his home country of Croatia. Following the pandemic, Vuković and his co-founders sought to monetize their predictive success, leading them to the financial markets. Today, they use the wisdom of crowds and their understanding of social networks to outperform markets with their hedge fund.

Vuković graciously joined Physik Invest’s Market Intelligence podcast to discuss his career, research, starting and operating a hedge fund, trading psychology, and investment processes.

The Art of Forecasting and Hedge Fund Mastery by a Croatian Economist

Last month, we published a detailed newsletter about extreme , trades, and feedback loops.We focused primarily on how...
08/06/2024

Last month, we published a detailed newsletter about extreme , trades, and feedback loops.

We focused primarily on how the expansion of specific trades enhances liquidity and stimulates growth. However, reversing such trades reduces liquidity and can destabilize and economies.

History shows that a minor catalyst can lead to a big unwind. History repeats, with investor demand for protection, as gauged by measures like the or Cboe Volatility Index, moving in a big and unexpected way. We note that the market can perform exceptionally well after such liquidations.

If you haven't, check it out and share your thoughts!

“It is when we are unaware of what could go wrong that we have to worry.”

We recently had the honor of interviewing Mat Cashman of the OCC, the Options Clearing Corporation. Mat’s been in market...
07/29/2024

We recently had the honor of interviewing Mat Cashman of the OCC, the Options Clearing Corporation. Mat’s been in markets for decades, starting in the pits of Chicago’s trading floors before moving to London and back to build big trading businesses.

Today, he’s focused on educating the next generation of savvy and more efficient traders. We’ll learn more about his serendipitous start in markets, managing risk and making faster decisions, the benefits and costs of automation, trading in the pit, the entities taking the other side of your trade, incentives, 0 DTE options, and the risks of high-variance and illiquid trades.

Thank you, and have a great day!

“It's not a new risk. It's a different cadence of risk.”

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