02/11/2026
Why have the mortgage rates been going down so slowly if the federal reserve is cutting interest rates? I get asked this a lot.
The short version is: mortgage rates (especially the common 30-year fixed ones) track the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield way more closely than the Fed’s federal funds rate. Here’s why that happens.
The federal funds rate is basically a super short-term thing—the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. The Fed sets it directly to control the economy right now (like fighting inflation or boosting growth). It hits stuff like credit cards, HELOCs, or adjustable-rate mortgages pretty quickly, but not fixed long-term mortgages.
Mortgages are long-term loans—most people think 30 years, but the average person only keeps one about 7-10 years before refinancing or selling. Lenders and investors who buy bundles of mortgages (mortgage-backed securities) need to price them based on long-term expectations.
The 10-year Treasury note is the “safe” benchmark for that timeframe. It’s what the government pays to borrow for 10 years, seen as basically risk-free. Investors compare returns on mortgages to that 10-year yield. If the 10-year yield goes up, mortgages have to offer more to stay attractive, so rates rise. If it drops, mortgage rates usually follow down.
Lenders add a spread (usually 1.5-2% or so) on top of the 10-year yield to cover extra risk (people can default, prepay, etc.) and their profit.
The Fed influences the 10-year yield indirectly—through expectations about future short-term rates, inflation, etc.—but it doesn’t control it. Bond market investors set the 10-year yield based on bigger-picture stuff like economic forecasts, inflation outlook, and global demand for safe assets.
So even if the Fed cuts rates big time, if bond investors think inflation’s coming back or the economy’s heating up, the 10-year yield (and thus mortgages) might not drop—or could even rise. That’s why you sometimes see mortgage rates not moving in lockstep with Fed announcements.
Bottom line: the 10-year Treasury “controls” mortgage rates more because it’s the matching long-term benchmark, while the Fed funds rate is short-term and only pulls strings from a distance.