10/09/2026
McGowanGroup Wealth Management Q4 2026 Client Update
In this week's broadcast, Spencer McGowan and Alex Tollen deliver the Q4 2026 Client Update, reviewing macro bond market shifts, market valuations, energy sector outperformance, and strategic portfolio positioning for the quarter ahead.
Key Highlights & Timestamps:
- The Unprecedented Bond Bear Market
The 20-Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is down over 11% YTD. As zero-interest era bonds struggle with rising rates, long-duration fixed income has suffered a severe repricing, highlighting the importance of managing duration risk.
- 20-Year Treasury Rates Hit 5.75% (17.5x Earnings Equivalent)
20-Year Treasuries hit 5.75% yields this week—equivalent to just 17.5x earnings. High-yielding Treasuries now present a compelling institutional alternative to highly valued broad equity benchmarks and AI mega-caps.
- Fed Rate Path Expectations
T-Bill yields have moved above 4.0%, pricing in potential Fed rate hikes at upcoming policy meetings into year-end.
- Sector Performance: Tech vs. Deep Value Energy
While the S&P 500 is up +14.15% and NASDAQ sits near +22% YTD, Energy Select Sector ETFs (XLE) have outperformed tech, surging nearly +50% YTD while maintaining attractive valuations at 5x–7x cash flow.
- Refining Crack Spreads & AI Power Demand
Record-high refining margins (crack spreads) are projected to remain elevated through 2027 due to structural capacity constraints, while natural gas infrastructure continues to see strong tailwinds from "behind-the-meter" AI data center power needs.
- Strategic Q4 Action Plan: Reallocating into High Cash Flow
The Investment Committee is harvesting gains from surging equities and allocating into discounted, high-yield corporate bonds and fixed-income assets,. This strategy locks in "pay raises" via higher forward cash yields while building tactical safety against potential tech drawdowns.
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