07/16/2026
CPI Announcement Information
June 2026 CPI was announced yesterday. The overall year over year CPI including Food and Energy was 3.5%, which was down from last month, May 2026, when CPI was 4.2%.
The spike in oil prices explains the changes to this inflation reading. Brent Crude Oil prices reached $114.44/barrel in May and are now back down to around $84.14/barrel. We all noticed that gas prices increased recently.
Inflation without Food or Energy remained under 3% at 2.6%. This is down from last month’s CPI without Food and Energy which was 2.9%. Typically, in financial planning, inflation is estimated to be around 2.5%-3% per year. Some categories like Health care are around 5%-6%.
Here are a few details about the recent CPI reports:
Energy – Year over Year CPI in June 2026 was 15.7%, down from 23.5% in May 2026.
Energy Commodities – (A subcategory of Energy that includes Oil and another subcategory gasoline.) Year over Year CPI inflation in June 2026 was 27.1%, down from 40.6% in May 2026.
Airline fares CPI was 26.5% for June 2026 and was the only other category that has a double digit increase year over year.
The good news is that energy prices disinflated enough to bring overall CPI including Food and Energy back below 4%. Year over Year Core CPI was down to 2.6% in June.
Oil prices are expected to drop some more, but there is the risk that oil prices will not continue to drop. If this is the case, the Fed under Powell may have felt pressure to maintain more restrictive monetary policy with the possibility of a rate hike; however, the Fed under Warsh is expected to utilize the ‘Trimmed Mean PCE ‘ inflation rate instead of CPI or PCE.
The Trimmed Mean PCE was 2.8% in May 2026. The next announcement is scheduled for July 30th.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce/
While the Fed under Warsh is not expected to raise rates and may find room to cut before the end of the year, the Fed can always change their policy. There is no guarantee of a rate cut this year or that there will not be a rate hike.
Sources:
“U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index - "News Release Table 1, June 2026"
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/supplemental-files/home.htm (Accessed July 15th 2026)