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09/02/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

September apparently woke up and chose volatility.

Today we have:

Weaker jobs ✅
Better MBS this morning ✅
Oil near $90 ❌
Treasury yields near multi-year highs ❌
U.S.-Iran tensions escalating again ❌

So yes…

The bond market is currently trying to drink from a firehose.

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗬

The 10-Year is hovering around 𝟰.𝟴𝟬%-𝟰.𝟴𝟮%.

That is the biggest problem for mortgage rates right now.

The 30-Year Treasury is near 𝟱.𝟮𝟴%, showing investors are still demanding a large premium for inflation, deficits and long-term uncertainty.

Yesterday, average top-tier 30-year mortgage rates climbed to about 𝟲.𝟴𝟵%.

We are now well above the 𝟰.𝟱𝟬% 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘇𝗼𝗻𝗲 I want to see for a meaningful mortgage-rate rally.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗕𝗢𝗡𝗗𝗦

There is at least one encouraging sign.

MBS are 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 after the recent selloff.

That could help stabilize lender pricing today if the improvement holds.

But with Treasuries this high, we are not out of the woods.

𝗝𝗢𝗕𝗦: 𝗙𝗜𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗟𝗬 𝗦𝗢𝗠𝗘 𝗕𝗢𝗡𝗗-𝗙𝗥𝗜𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗟𝗬 𝗡𝗘𝗪𝗦

ADP says private employers added only:

𝟯𝟴,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀

Expectations were roughly 𝟰𝟴,𝟬𝟬𝟬.

Manufacturing lost 𝟭𝟳,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀.

Professional/business services lost 𝟭𝟲,𝟬𝟬𝟬.

That is exactly the kind of cooling labor data bonds normally like.

But today there is a bigger elephant in the room…

𝗖𝗥𝗨𝗗𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟

WTI: ~$𝟴𝟵.𝟱𝟬

Brent: ~$𝟵𝟰.𝟮𝟬

That is a HUGE change from the low-$80s we were watching last week.

Why?

Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran.

Higher oil feeds directly into:

Transportation costs
Shipping costs
Production costs
Inflation expectations

And higher inflation expectations usually mean:

Higher Treasury yields
Lower bond prices
More pressure on mortgage rates

𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛

The U.S. and Iran just had their biggest exchange of fire since July.

Iran says two tankers were disabled by mines near the Strait of Hormuz.

But there is one important counterpoint:

More than 𝟭𝟳 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗛𝗼𝗿𝗺𝘂𝘇 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆.

That helped oil pull back from earlier highs.

So the market is basically asking:

𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗿𝘆…o𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸?

That answer matters enormously for mortgage rates.

𝗛𝗢𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗚

Mortgage applications actually rose 𝟬.𝟴% last week.

Purchase applications increased 𝟮%.

Refinances fell 𝟭%.

ARM share jumped to 𝟴%, its highest level in five weeks.

That tells me buyers haven’t disappeared.

They’re adapting.

Higher fixed rates are pushing more borrowers to consider alternative structures.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱

🏦 MBS: 🟢 Moderately Stronger
📉 10-Year Treasury: 🔴 ~4.81%
💰 Mortgage Spreads: 🟢 Still Helping
💼 Jobs: 🟢 Cooling
🛢️ Crude Oil: 🔴 Major Headwind
🌍 Global Risk: 🔴 Elevated
📊 Inflation Risk: 🔴 Rising Again
🏠 Housing Demand: 🟡 Resilient
🏦 Fed Risk: 🔴 Hawkish

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀: 🔴 𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗹𝘆 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗵

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲

Today is a perfect example of why economic data never operates in isolation.

Normally:

𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀 = 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 = 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀.

But today:

𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀 + $𝟵𝟬 𝗼𝗶𝗹 + 𝘄𝗮𝗿 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 = 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻.

For rates to make a meaningful move lower, I still want to see:

10-Year → 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟰.𝟳𝟬%, 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%
Oil → 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 $𝟴𝟬
Mortgage spreads → 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁
Jobs → 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴
Inflation → 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿

Friday’s official jobs report now becomes extremely important.

If payrolls disappoint AND oil cools…

we could finally get meaningful Treasury relief.

If oil pushes toward $100?

The inflation story gets much harder.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀
B𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

09/01/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

September is starting on a rough note for bonds.

Mortgage bonds have slipped to around 𝟵𝟴.𝟵𝟳, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝟰.𝟳𝟴% as rising oil prices and higher global yields pressure the market.

That puts us above a key technical level-and into an area that deserves attention.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗳𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲

WTI crude is up to about $𝟴𝟳.𝟴𝟵 per barrel, as the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to raise concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Higher oil matters because it can feed into:

• Transportation
• Shipping
• Manufacturing
• Consumer prices

That keeps inflation expectations elevated and makes life harder for bonds.

The national average for regular gasoline is still around $𝟰.𝟭𝟬 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗴𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗻.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝘀 𝟰.𝟳𝟱%

The 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝟰.𝟳𝟴%, above the important 𝟰.𝟳𝟱% 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹.

Next stop to watch: 𝟰.𝟴𝟬%.

If buyers step in there, yields could stabilize.

If not, the market could start feeling a stronger pull toward 𝟱.𝟬𝟬%.

That would likely mean more pressure on mortgage rates.

𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴

CME FedWatch now shows roughly a 𝟲𝟳% 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝟬.𝟮𝟱% 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗸𝗲 at the September 15–16 meeting.

Why the sudden change?

Higher oil + solid economic data + renewed inflation concerns.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has also said economic growth appears to have strengthened.

𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗶𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘆

Today brings:

S&P Global PMI
JOLTS Job Openings
ISM Manufacturing

Still ahead:

ADP Payrolls Wednesday
Jobs Report Friday

Strong labor data could keep pressure on rates.

Softer data could finally give bonds some relief.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage Bonds: 𝟵𝟴.𝟵𝟳
Key support: 𝟵𝟵.𝟬𝟬
10-Year Treasury: 𝟰.𝟳𝟴%
Next critical level: 𝟰.𝟴𝟬%

HomeSmart Advisors Takeaway

Closing soon? Continue locking.

Closing farther out? Consider locking more files to protect against additional rate drift.

The market has broken an important level.

Now we watch whether 𝟰.𝟴𝟬% 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝘀-𝗼𝗿 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝟱.𝟬𝟬% 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

08/31/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟯𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The week is starting with a warning shot for the bond market.

Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting pushed oil sharply higher, Treasury yields higher, and mortgage bonds lower.

Mortgage bonds are sitting near 𝟵𝟵.𝟬𝟬, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝟰.𝟳𝟱%-its highest level since January 2025.

That puts us right at a very important technical level.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹

Over the weekend, U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz, immediately putting energy markets back on edge.

Higher oil matters because it can feed directly into:

• Transportation
• Shipping
• Manufacturing
• Consumer prices

That keeps inflation expectations elevated-and bonds do not like inflation.

Stocks are lower this morning as markets digest the combination of 𝗴𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸, 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀.

𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱

This week brings several important labor-market reports:

JOLTS Job Openings
ADP Private Payrolls
Friday’s Jobs Report

Why does this matter?

A strong labor market could reinforce the idea that the Fed can keep rates higher for longer.

Softer employment data could finally give bonds some relief.

Until then, geopolitics and global yields are driving the conversation.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds have fallen to their second major support level near 𝟵𝟵.𝟬𝟬, just above the 2026 lows.

The 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟰.𝟳𝟱%.

That is the line to watch.

A convincing break and close above 𝟰.𝟳𝟱% could open the door toward 𝟱.𝟬𝟬%, which would likely create additional pressure on mortgage rates.

Sometimes the cure for higher rates is eventually…higher rates.

The question is whether we are there yet.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Closing within the next three weeks? Continue locking.

This is not the moment to get aggressive with short-term floats.

For longer timelines, stay alert and watch 4.75% closely.

Oil is rising.
Bonds are at support.
The 10-Year is at resistance.

Something may have to give.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

08/30/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Rates improved slightly this week, but we’re still sitting near 2026 highs.

The good news? A few things are quietly moving in the right direction.

The challenge? The bond market is still at an important crossroads.

𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently discussed buying longer-dated, less-liquid Treasury securities to improve market functioning.

𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗿 𝗤𝗘.

But if Treasury purchases create more demand for longer-term bonds, that could help pressure long-term yields lower.

And long-term yields matter a lot more to mortgage rates than the Fed’s overnight rate.

That makes this worth watching.

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗺𝗲

July Core PCE rose about 0.2% for the month, roughly a 2.4% annualized pace.

Even more interesting?

A large share of that increase came from 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗲𝗲𝘀, not broad consumer inflation.

Translation:

Not all inflation is created equal.

And this report certainly did not scream that higher rates are needed.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼𝗼

WTI crude has moved into the 𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟴𝟬𝘀 as optimism around Iran reduces some geopolitical risk.

Lower oil helps both actual inflation and inflation expectations.

That is a positive backdrop for bonds.

𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗿 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻?

Mortgage bonds are testing an important technical area near the 𝟱𝟬-𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲.

A clean break above could open the door to better rates.

A failure could send bond prices back toward 2026 lows.

Remember:

𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 = 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝘂𝗽 = 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘂𝗽.

Where we stand

𝟯𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗙𝗶𝘅𝗲𝗱: ~𝟲.𝟲𝟲%

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆: ~𝟰.𝟲𝟱%

𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 = 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸

Markets will be watching:

• JOLTS
• ADP Payrolls
• Jobless Claims
• ISM data
• Friday’s Jobs Report

With the September Fed meeting getting closer, labor data now matters a lot.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Inflation is behaving.
Oil is calmer.
Treasury liquidity efforts could help.
But bonds still need to prove they can break higher.

Next week could decide the next meaningful move in mortgage rates.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

08/28/2026

𝗞𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗵 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗦𝗽𝗼𝗸𝗲 ...𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜𝘁 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲

08/28/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Today’s mortgage market has one message:

“N𝗼𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝘀𝘂𝗱𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀…W𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗵 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗳𝗲𝘄 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲𝘀.”

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗕𝗢𝗡𝗗𝗦

Mortgage-backed securities are slightly weaker this morning, but nothing dramatic.

UMBS 5.5% is trading around the 𝟵𝟵.𝟰𝟬 𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗮, suggesting only modest pressure on mortgage pricing so far.

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗬

The 10-Year is near 𝟰.𝟲𝟵%.

That’s still well above the 𝟰.𝟱𝟬% 𝘇𝗼𝗻𝗲 I’d like to see before getting excited about a meaningful mortgage-rate rally.

The 30-Year Treasury remains elevated near 𝟱.𝟮𝟭%, showing that long-term investors still want a premium for inflation, government debt and fiscal risk.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗦𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗𝗦

Here’s the quiet hero again.

Mortgage spreads remain close to roughly 𝟮%, much healthier than the extreme levels we saw in 2023.

That means borrowers are getting some protection from today’s elevated Treasury yields.

𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 = 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗱

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 = 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿

Without that improvement, mortgage rates would likely be materially worse.

𝗖𝗥𝗨𝗗𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟

Finally, some help.

WTI crude has fallen toward roughly $𝟴𝟯/𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹, while Brent is near $𝟴𝟵.

Both are heading toward weekly declines.

Why?

More oil is making it through the Strait of Hormuz than markets feared, while Iran, Oman and Qatar continue diplomatic efforts aimed at restoring normal shipping.

Lower oil = lower potential transportation + production costs = less future inflation pressure.

That’s good for bonds.

𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛

Before celebrating too much…

Hormuz is still nowhere near normal.

Only 𝘀𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗹𝘀 reportedly crossed Thursday versus 17 the day before.

The Strait historically carried roughly 𝟮𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆.

So geopolitical risk is improving…

but absolutely not gone.

𝗝𝗔𝗖𝗞𝗦𝗢𝗡 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗘-𝗧𝗢𝗗𝗔𝗬’𝗦 𝗕𝗜𝗚 𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗡𝗧

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks this morning.

And markets want answers.

July PCE inflation remains stubborn:

Headline PCE: 𝟯.𝟳% 𝗬𝗼𝗬

Core PCE: 𝟯.𝟯% 𝗬𝗼𝗬

Several Fed officials have already suggested another rate hike could be necessary if inflation refuses to cool.

If Warsh sounds hawkish?

Treasury yields could rise.

If he convinces markets the Fed can control inflation without additional tightening?

Bonds could rally.

This could be today’s volatility event.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱

MBS: 🟡 Slightly Weaker
10-Year Treasury: ⚠️ Still Too High
Mortgage Spreads: 🟢 Helping
Crude Oil: 🟢 Improving
Inflation: 🔴 Still Sticky
Global Risk: 🟡 Improving
Fed / Jackson Hole: 👀 HIGH ALERT
Fiscal / Debt Risk: ⚠️ Elevated

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀: 🟡 𝗡𝗲𝘂𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹 / 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲

Mortgage rates are currently being pulled in opposite directions.

Lower oil and tighter mortgage spreads are helping.

Sticky inflation and elevated Treasury yields are hurting.

For the next meaningful move lower, I’m still watching for:

10-Year → 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%
Oil → 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿/𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟴𝟬
Mortgage spreads → 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁
Inflation → 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝘆 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿

Today, however, one man has the microphone.

𝗞𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗵.

Markets will decide very quickly whether they like what they hear.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀
B𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

08/27/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The mortgage market is holding its ground this morning. 👀

Mortgage bonds are near 99.53, the 10-Year Treasury is around 4.66%, and oil is basically flat.

Nothing dramatic today but there’s plenty happening beneath the surface.

𝗡𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴

Nvidia delivered another monster quarter:

Revenue: $96.2B
Net income: $53.1B
Next-quarter revenue forecast: $108B

That beat expectations and is helping lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq this morning.

𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀.

For bonds? A booming economy can be a mixed blessing.

𝗟𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝘂𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸

𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟯𝗞, remaining near historically low levels.

Translation: 𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲.

The Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow estimate has Q3 growth running at 4.6%.

Strong growth + strong employment = less urgency for the Fed to lower rates.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴…f𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝘄

WTI crude is around $82.37/barrel as markets balance ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions against signs of possible diplomatic progress.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗽𝗳𝘂𝗹.

A renewed spike would quickly put inflation and mortgage rates back on alert.

Bonds have one more hurdle today

The Treasury auctions $44 billion of 7-Year Notes today.

Remember our saying:

𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀.

Strong demand = potentially supportive for rates.

Weak demand = yields could feel more pressure.

𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽: 𝗝𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗲

The Jackson Hole Symposium begins today, but the main event comes tomorrow.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Friday at 10:00 AM ET.

Markets will be listening closely for clues about:

• Interest rates
• Inflation
• The Fed’s balance sheet
• September policy

One sentence can move this market quickly.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage Bonds: 99.53
Support: 99.50
50-Day MA resistance: 99.72
10-Year Treasury: 4.66%

We’re holding support but still need to break through resistance.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Closing soon? Continue locking.

Longer timelines? Float most files while support holds but stay alert heading into Warsh tomorrow.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

08/26/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Today’s market is giving us:

Lower oil ✅
Softer housing ✅
Inflation saying…𝗬𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗴𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗹𝘆.

𝗣𝗖𝗘 𝗜𝗡𝗙𝗟𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡

The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge stayed stubborn in July.

Headline PCE: 𝟯.𝟳% 𝗬𝗼𝗬
Core PCE: 𝟯.𝟯% 𝗬𝗼𝗬

That’s still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Translation?

The bond market still doesn’t have enough evidence to confidently price in easier monetary policy.

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗬

The 10-Year is hovering around 𝟰.𝟲𝟰%-𝟰.𝟲𝟱%.

That’s much better than last week’s move toward 4.75%…

…but still above the 𝟰.𝟱𝟬% 𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗮 I’d like to see before getting excited about a bigger mortgage-rate move lower.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗕𝗢𝗡𝗗𝗦

MBS are only slightly weaker this morning.

That’s actually encouraging considering the inflation report.

Mortgage pricing remains relatively stable rather than selling off aggressively.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗦𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗𝗦

Spreads remain one of the quiet positives.

Treasury yields are still elevated, but healthier mortgage spreads continue cushioning borrowers from even higher mortgage rates.

Think:

𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 = 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗱
Mortgage spreads = 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿

𝗖𝗥𝗨𝗗𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟

Here’s today’s GOOD news.

WTI crude has fallen toward $𝟴𝟬–$𝟴𝟭/𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹.

Brent is near $𝟴𝟲.

That’s a major improvement from last week.

Lower oil helps reduce future transportation, shipping and production costs -exactly what the inflation outlook needs.

𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛

Iran and Oman are discussing a framework to improve navigation through the 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗛𝗼𝗿𝗺𝘂𝘇.

Markets love the possibility of more oil flowing through the strait.

But actual shipping traffic remains far below normal.

So this geopolitical risk is improving…

not disappearing.

𝗛𝗢𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗚

Mortgage applications fell another 𝟭% last week.

Purchase applications slipped again, and July new-home sales plunged 𝟭𝟬.𝟱%.

That tells us elevated mortgage rates are still putting real pressure on affordability and housing demand.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱

MBS: 🟡 Slightly Weaker
10-Year Treasury: 🟡 Near 4.65%
Mortgage Spreads: 🟢 Helping
Crude Oil: 🟢 BIG Improvement
PCE Inflation: 🔴 Still Sticky
Housing Demand: ✅ Cooling
Global Risk: 🟡 Improving
Fed Risk: ⚠️ Still Hawkish

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀: 🟡 𝗡𝗲𝘂𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹 → 𝗦𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲

Today perfectly illustrates the tug-of-war in mortgage rates.

Inflation is still too high.

But oil is falling.

Housing is slowing.

Mortgage spreads are helping.

And the 10-Year is well below last week’s highs.

For mortgage rates to make the next meaningful move lower, I’m still watching for:

10-Year → 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱/𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%
Oil → 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿/𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟴𝟬
Mortgage spreads → 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁
Core inflation → 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿

The next BIG catalyst?

𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗿 𝗞𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗵 𝗮𝘁 𝗝𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗲

The bond market wants to know whether he sees today’s high long-term yields as enough tightening…or whether another Fed hike is still on the table.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀
B𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

08/24/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Monday’s market is giving us:

𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗶𝗹
𝗦𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀
Mortgage bonds saying…𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘀𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁.

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗬

The 10-Year is near 𝟰.𝟳𝟭%, slightly better than Friday.

That helps, but we’re still well above the roughly 𝟰.𝟱𝟬% 𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗮 I’d like to see before getting more excited about a meaningful mortgage-rate move lower.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗕𝗢𝗡𝗗𝗦

MBS are modestly weaker this morning despite the small Treasury improvement.

That means lenders may not pass through all of today’s Treasury gains into mortgage pricing.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗦𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗𝗦

The good news?

Spreads are still helping us.

With mortgage rates around the upper-6% range and the 10-Year near 4.71%, the spread is roughly 𝟮.𝟬%.

That’s much healthier than the extreme levels of 2023.

Think of spreads as the 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿:

Treasuries are still the headwind.

Spreads are helping soften the blow.

𝗖𝗥𝗨𝗗𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟

WTI crude is near $𝟴𝟱/𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹, down about 2% this morning.

Lower oil is good for mortgage rates because it can reduce future inflation pressure.

But...

𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted.

Fewer than 20 commodity ships crossed over the weekend, while the U.S. prepares new sanctions targeting Iran and potentially its trading partners.

China is already pushing back.

That means oil could reverse quickly if tensions escalate.

𝗕𝗜𝗚 𝗪𝗘𝗘𝗞 𝗔𝗛𝗘𝗔𝗗

Markets are watching:

PCE inflation
New Home Sales
Revised GDP
Jackson Hole
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

Warsh’s Friday speech could be especially important because the bond market wants clarity on whether the Fed still sees another hike as necessary.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱

MBS: ⚠️ Slightly Weaker
10-Year Treasury: ✅ Slightly Better
Mortgage Spreads: 🟢 Helping
Crude Oil: ✅ Lower Today
Global Risk: 🔴 Elevated
Fed Risk: ⚠️ Important Week
Inflation Risk: 🟡 Still Sticky

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀: 🟡 𝗡𝗲𝘂𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹 / 𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗹𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲

Today is another perfect example of why mortgage rates don’t simply follow the 10-Year Treasury tick-for-tick.

Treasury yields are a little better.

MBS are not fully cooperating.

Spreads are still helping.

And oil is lower-but geopolitical risk remains high.

For a real mortgage-rate breakout lower, I’m still watching for:

10-Year → 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%
Oil → 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱/𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟴𝟬
Mortgage spreads → 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁
Inflation → 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴

Until those pieces line up, expect volatility.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀
B𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

08/21/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

After a volatile week, the mortgage market is ending on a surprisingly quiet note.

Mortgage bonds are hovering around 99.31, while the 10-Year Treasury sits near 4.71%.

Not much movement this morning-but don’t mistake quiet for unimportant.

𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗮 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗼𝗻𝗲.

Oil finally takes a breather

WTI crude is holding near $86.90/barrel, basically flat on the day.

That stability matters.

Oil has been one of the biggest wildcards for inflation and rates lately. When energy prices calm down, it removes at least one source of pressure from the bond market.

For today…we’ll take it.

𝗝𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴

Next week brings the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where central bankers, economists and policymakers gather to discuss the economy and monetary policy.

Translation?

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗬 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹𝘆.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak Friday, August 28, and investors will be looking for clues about:

• Inflation
• Economic growth
• Future Fed policy
• Where interest rates could go next

Sometimes one sentence can move the bond market.

𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗝𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁

Next week also brings:

GDP
Core PCE Inflation
Treasury auctions
Preliminary annual payroll revisions

Core PCE will be especially important because it remains one of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges.

Technical Picture

Mortgage bonds remain below 99.50, with the 50-day moving average creating additional resistance overhead.

The 10-Year Treasury remains elevated near 4.71%.

𝗪𝗲’𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗼𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Closing soon? Continue locking.

Longer timelines? Floating most files may make sense while we wait for next week’s catalysts.

The market is quiet today.

Next week probably won’t be.

𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗮 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗱!

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

HomeSmart Advisors

09/02/2026

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