What are the opening hours?

Monday 9am - 5pm Tuesday 9am - 5pm Wednesday 9am - 5pm Thursday 9am - 5pm Friday 9am - 5pm Saturday 10am - 2pm

HomeSmart Advisors, 555 Anton Boulevard Suite 383, Costa Mesa, CA (2026)

06/02/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The market is trying to push rates lower...

But it's running into resistance.

Mortgage bonds are improving this morning, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝟰.𝟰𝟯%, helped by lower oil prices and a rally in European bond markets.

The result?

A little breathing room for rates.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗮 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸

After fueling market volatility for weeks, oil is finally easing lower.

WTI crude is trading near $𝟵𝟭 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹, down from the recent spike into the mid-$90s.

No major breakthrough has emerged from Middle East peace talks, but fears of an immediate escalation have cooled for now.

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains reduced but continues to move, helping calm some of the supply concerns that had pushed oil higher.

Lower oil prices help ease inflation concerns.

And bonds like that.

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗣𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘀

The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all closed at record highs yesterday.

Today?

A little profit-taking.

Stock futures are modestly lower as investors wait for the next round of economic data.

Nothing unusual there.

Markets don't move in straight lines.

𝗜𝘁'𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸

Today's economic calendar is relatively quiet, with the April JOLTS Job Openings report due this morning.

But the bigger events are still ahead:

• ADP Employment Report tomorrow
• Friday's Jobs Report

This is the type of data that can move rates quickly.

A stronger labor market could keep upward pressure on rates.

A softer labor market could give bonds additional support.

𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲

Fed commentary continues throughout the week as markets look for clues about inflation, economic growth, and future rate policy under the new Warsh-led Fed.

Expect plenty of headlines.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds are testing a major resistance zone near:

• 100.41
• 100.50
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury is approaching near-term support around 𝟰.𝟰𝟬%

The market is improving...

But it hasn't broken out yet.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

For now, lower oil prices are helping bonds and rates.

But the market is still waiting for confirmation from this week's labor reports.

If you're closing soon, locking continues to make sense.

If your timeline is longer, floating may still be worth considering while we watch how Jobs Week unfolds.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

06/01/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The market started June with a reminder of just how quickly headlines can move rates.

Just when things were beginning to calm down...

The Middle East stepped back into the spotlight.

🛢️ 𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗜𝘀 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗜𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿'𝘀 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝘁

Reports surfaced overnight that Iran has paused negotiations in response to escalating tensions between Israel and Lebanon.

Markets reacted immediately.

WTI crude jumped from the upper $80s to above $𝟵𝟰 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹 in a matter of hours.

And when oil rises...

Inflation concerns tend to rise with it.

That's why mortgage bonds slipped and Treasury yields moved higher this morning.

📈 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗜𝗴𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗲 "𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗜𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘆" 𝗖𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗱

Remember the old Wall Street saying:

"𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗴𝗼 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆?"

Well...

Not this year.

The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all finished May at or near record highs despite geopolitical tensions, elevated rates, and ongoing inflation concerns.

The market continues proving that headlines and reality don't always move together.

👀𝗜𝘁'𝘀 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸

This week could be one of the most important weeks for rates in June.

Markets will be closely watching:

• JOLTS Job Openings
• ADP Employment Report
• Friday's Jobs Report

Why does it matter?

Because the labor market remains one of the biggest drivers of Federal Reserve policy.

A stronger labor market can keep inflation concerns alive.

A softer labor market could help rates improve.

🏛️ 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸𝘀

Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell made headlines this morning emphasizing the importance of central bank independence.

Meanwhile, markets continue adjusting to the new leadership era under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Expect plenty of Fed commentary throughout the week as investors search for clues about future rate policy.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds are running into a wall of resistance near:

• 100.41
• 100.50
• 50-Day Moving Average

Meanwhile, the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%, which remains one of the most important levels in the market right now.

Break lower?

Rates could improve.

Move higher?

Pressure could return quickly.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

For now, the market is caught between two competing forces:

Higher oil prices creating inflation concerns

Upcoming labor data that could either support or challenge rates

If you're closing soon, locking continues to make sense.

For longer timelines, the jobs data later this week could tell the next chapter of the story.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

05/31/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

For the first time in a while, the bond market finally caught a break.

And guess what was behind it?
Oil.

Again.

After spending much of May flirting with $100+, oil prices slid back into the $80s, helping ease inflation fears and giving mortgage rates some much-needed relief.

The result?

Mortgage rates touched their best levels in about two weeks.

Not a huge victory.

But in this market, we'll take it.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗚𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗛𝗲𝗹𝗽

The biggest story this week wasn't the Fed.

It wasn't Washington.

It wasn't housing.

It was oil.

As optimism grew around the Iran situation and fears of a wider conflict eased, oil prices dropped sharply.

Lower oil prices reduce inflation pressure throughout the economy:

• Transportation
• Manufacturing
• Shipping
• Consumer goods

When inflation fears cool, bond investors get more comfortable.

That's exactly what happened this week.

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, Core PCE, came in slightly better than expected.

No fireworks.

No dramatic collapse in inflation.

Just another small step in the right direction.

And right now, that's exactly what bond markets want to see.

Inflation isn't defeated yet...

But it continues to trend lower.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗥𝗲𝗳𝘂𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗤𝘂𝗶𝘁

Durable Goods Orders came in much stronger than expected.

Translation?

Businesses are still investing.

Consumers are still spending.

The economy continues showing resilience despite higher rates.

Normally strong economic data can pressure rates higher.

This week, however, markets focused more on cooling inflation and falling oil prices.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝟰.𝟲𝟬% 𝗖𝗲𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗛𝗲𝗹𝗱 𝗔𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻

Last week we discussed the importance of the 𝟰.𝟲𝟬% 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 on the 10-Year Treasury.

Well...

The market tested it.

The 10-Year briefly hit 𝟰.𝟳𝟬% before reversing and falling back toward 𝟰.𝟰𝟱%.

That reversal helped mortgage bonds recover and gave rates a little breathing room.

For now, 4.60% continues to look like a very important ceiling.

𝗜𝘁'𝘀 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸

Next week's focus shifts squarely to the labor market.

Markets will be watching:

• JOLTS Job Openings
• ADP Employment Report
• ISM Services
• Weekly Jobless Claims
• Friday's Jobs Report

Remember:

The Fed has a dual mandate stable prices and maximum employment.

That means labor data matters.

A lot.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

This week reminded everyone that rates don't move on one thing alone.

Oil cooled.

Inflation improved.

The 10-Year reversed lower.

And bonds responded positively.

The question now is whether next week's labor data supports that trend—or challenges it.

Either way, expect volatility to remain part of the story.

B𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁

05/30/2026

🏡 Costa Mesa is no longer Southern California's best-kept secret — and smart buyers know it.

While everyone was watching other markets cool off, Orange County homeowners quietly built some of the strongest equity gains in the state. 📈

Whether you're thinking of buying your first home, upgrading your lifestyle, or unlocking the equity sitting in your current property — the window of opportunity is right now.

Here's what we know that most people don't:
✅ Inventory in Costa Mesa is tightening
✅ Interest rates are shifting — and timing matters
✅ The right advisor makes a 6-figure difference

At HomeSmart Advisors, we don't just close deals — we help you make the smartest move of your life. 🏠

💬 Drop a "HOME" in the comments or DM us — let's talk about what your next move looks like.

📍 Costa Mesa, CA | Serving All of Orange County
📅 Link in bio to schedule a free strategy call

05/29/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The market is trying to improve…

But it’s running into a ceiling.

Mortgage bonds are holding near 𝟭𝟬𝟬.𝟰𝟭, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟰.𝟰𝟱% 𝗮𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 continue digesting easing tensions in the Middle East.

The story today?

🛢️ Oil keeps falling.

And markets like it.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬

WTI crude traded as high as $𝟭𝟬𝟵 earlier this month.

Today?

It's hovering near $𝟴𝟳

That’s a massive move lower.

The catalyst appears to be reports that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to extend their ceasefire by another 60 days, reducing fears of a broader conflict and helping remove some of the "risk premium" built into energy prices.

Lower oil prices help ease inflation pressure.

And that's generally positive for bonds and mortgage rates.

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗽𝘂𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 📈

The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ remain near record highs as investors respond positively to:

• Lower oil prices
• Easing geopolitical tensions
• Strong corporate earnings

Risk sentiment remains surprisingly strong.

𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗮 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 👀

Today is relatively quiet from an economic data standpoint.

But next week is a different story.

Markets will get a full slate of labor data including:

• JOLTS Job Openings
• ADP Employment Report
• Monthly Jobs Report

These reports could significantly impact rate expectations and market direction.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds are running into heavy resistance around:

• 100.41
• 100.50
• 50-day Moving Average

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury is sitting right near 𝟰.𝟰𝟱% 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁.

The market is improving…

But it’s stalling at some important levels.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

If you're closing soon...

Locking still makes sense.

For longer-term files, floating may still be reasonable, but keep a close eye on next week's labor data.

Right now, lower oil prices are helping rates.

The question is whether economic data will cooperate.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

05/27/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Markets are staying in “risk-on” mode today…

And once again, oil is leading the move.

Mortgage bonds pushed higher near 𝟭𝟬𝟬.𝟮𝟴, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟰.𝟰𝟲% as investors reacted to easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

The biggest headline?

Iran stated the chances of returning to war with the U.S. were now considered “low.”

Markets liked hearing that.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 🛢️

WTI crude has now dropped into the 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 $𝟴𝟬𝘀, a massive move lower from the $𝟭𝟮𝟬 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵.

That matters.

Because lower oil prices help reduce inflation pressure across the economy:

• Transportation
• Shipping
• Manufacturing
• Consumer prices

And when inflation pressure eases…

Bond markets usually respond positively.

That’s exactly what we’re seeing right now.

Gas prices are slowly responding too.

According to AAA, the national average for regular gas has slipped to $𝟰.𝟰𝟱, 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 $𝟰.𝟱𝟱 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸.

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗴 📈

The stock rally remains alive as investors continue embracing easing geopolitical tensions, lower oil prices, and overall improving market sentiment.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields continue pulling back from last week’s highs.

The 10-year Treasury has now fallen from 𝟰.𝟳𝟬% 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟰.𝟰𝟲% 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆.

That’s a meaningful move in a short period of time.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 👀

Today is relatively quiet economically.

But tomorrow matters.

Markets will get:

• Core PCE Inflation
• Second reading of Q1 GDP

Those reports could heavily influence the next move in rates and overall market sentiment.

The Treasury will also auction $𝟳𝟬𝗕 𝗶𝗻 𝟱-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀 today after moderate demand at yesterday’s 2-year auction.

Auction demand still matters a lot in this environment.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds are now firmly back above the critical 𝗽𝗮𝗿/𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹, which shifts that area back into support.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury is approaching an important support zone near 𝟰.𝟰𝟱%.

Markets are improving technically…

At least for now.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

If you’re closing soon…

Locking still makes sense.

But for longer timelines, this improving trend may continue if oil prices keep cooling and inflation data cooperates.

Right now, markets are finally getting a little breathing room.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

05/26/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Markets are finally breathing a little easier this week…

And once again, oil is leading the move.

Mortgage bonds climbed back above the key 𝗽𝗮𝗿/𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹, trading near 𝟭𝟬𝟬.𝟭𝟵, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝘂𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟰.𝟰𝟴% after touching 𝟰.𝟳𝟬% 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸.

That’s a meaningful reversal in a short period of time.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 🛢️

After hitting nearly $𝟭𝟬𝟵 last week, WTI crude has dropped back near $𝟵𝟮 as markets grow more optimistic about a potential U.S.-Iran agreement.

Lower oil prices matter.

Why?

Because oil feeds inflation expectations across the economy:

• Transportation
• Manufacturing
• Shipping
• Consumer prices

So when oil falls…

Bond markets usually respond positively.

And that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now.

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁

Markets opened higher this morning with major indexes sitting near record territory again as easing geopolitical tensions and strong earnings continue supporting investor confidence.

The AI trade is still alive and well.

𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱 👀

This week brings several major market-moving reports:

• Core PCE Inflation
• Q1 GDP (2nd reading)
• Consumer Confidence

Markets will also closely watch Treasury auctions this week with:

• $69B 2-year notes
• $70B 5-year notes
• $44B 7-year notes

Auction demand matters because weak demand can push yields higher quickly.

𝗔 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝗿𝗮 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗻𝘀

Today marks Kevin Warsh’s first official day as Fed Chair.

Markets will be paying close attention to any shifts in tone surrounding inflation, interest rates, QT, and overall Fed policy moving forward.

One important reminder:

The FOMC is not controlled by one person alone. While the Chair matters, policy decisions still involve voting members across the Board of Governors and regional Fed banks.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds have reclaimed the key 𝟭𝟬𝟬/𝗽𝗮𝗿 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹, which now acts as support again.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury has eased toward important support near 𝟰.𝟰𝟱%.

Markets are stabilizing… for now.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Heading into the week…

Floating most longer-term files may still make sense.

But this remains a market highly sensitive to oil, inflation, Treasury demand, and geopolitical headlines.

And right now…

Oil cooling is giving rates a little breathing room.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

05/23/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟯𝗿𝗱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Mortgage rates pushed to fresh 2026 highs this week…

And the pressure is no longer coming from just one place.

This has officially become a global bond market story.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 + 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗳𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 🛢️

Markets spent another week reacting to uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict.

And right now…

There’s still no clear resolution.

Oil prices continue hovering near the $𝟭𝟬𝟬 range, which matters because oil and long-term interest rates tend to move together.

Higher oil → higher inflation fears → pressure on bonds → higher mortgage rates.

That’s one of the biggest reasons rates moved higher again this week.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨.𝗦. 🌎

Global bond yields are surging almost everywhere.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield just hit its highest level since 1996.

UK 30-year yields are at the highest levels since 1998.

Germany’s 30-year yield is at levels not seen since 2011.

The common theme?

Governments everywhere are issuing massive amounts of debt while inflation risks remain elevated.

That combination is putting upward pressure on rates globally… including here in the U.S.

𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲

Housing Starts came in better than expected overall, even though single-family construction slowed.

Translation?

Builders are still building…

But affordability pressure from higher mortgage rates is clearly impacting buyer demand.

Multifamily construction remained much stronger, showing housing demand itself hasn’t disappeared -it’s simply shifting.

𝟰.𝟲𝟬% 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 👀

The 10-year Treasury is once again hovering near the key 𝟰.𝟲𝟬% 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹.

Historically, yields have struggled to stay above this area for long periods.

That doesn’t guarantee rates suddenly improve from here…

But technically, this has become a very important ceiling for markets.

And right now, the market is testing it aggressively.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸

This week brings several major reports:

• Consumer Confidence
• GDP
• Core PCE Inflation
• Treasury auctions

Markets will also closely watch Kevin Warsh’s first full week as Fed Chair for any clues on inflation, rates, and future Fed policy.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

The market is balancing:

• Inflation
• Oil prices
• Treasury supply
• Global debt concerns
• Geopolitical risk

All at the same time.

That’s why volatility remains elevated.

And until inflation and oil truly cool off…

Mortgage rates may continue facing pressure.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

05/22/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The market finally caught a little relief heading into the holiday weekend…

And once again, oil is leading the move.

Mortgage bonds improved this morning near 𝟵𝟵.𝟵𝟰, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝘂𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟰.𝟱𝟰% after touching 𝟰.𝟳𝟬% 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸.

That’s a meaningful reversal in a short period of time.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱? 🛢️

Optimism surrounding a possible U.S. Iran agreement is helping calm markets for now.

WTI crude has fallen from $𝟭𝟬𝟵 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟵𝟲 this morning as geopolitical tensions eased slightly and the “risk premium” built into oil prices started coming out.

And when oil falls…

Inflation pressure eases.

Which is generally positive for bonds and rates.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁

Historically, the 10-year Treasury has struggled to stay above 𝟰.𝟲𝟬% for extended periods.

That level has acted like a ceiling for nearly two decades.

And after briefly breaking above it this week, yields have now pulled back sharply.

Markets are beginning to ask:

Was that another temporary spike… or something more lasting?

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴

The Dow closed at a record high yesterday while the S&P and NASDAQ continued moving higher as investors remain focused on strong earnings and AI-driven growth optimism.

Stock futures are pointing higher again this morning.

𝗔 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝗿𝗮 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆

Kevin Warsh will officially be sworn in as Fed Chair today at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Markets will be watching closely for any changes in tone around inflation, rates, and balance sheet policy moving forward.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁?

Next week brings several major reports:

• Core PCE
• GDP
• Consumer Confidence
• Treasury auctions

So while today feels calmer…

Volatility is probably not gone.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds are attempting to reclaim the key 𝗽𝗮𝗿/𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹, which now acts as resistance.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury has pulled back toward important support around 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Heading into the long weekend…

Floating most longer-term files may still make sense.

But stay engaged.

Because this market continues reacting quickly to oil, inflation, and geopolitical headlines.

And as always this Memorial Day weekend, we pause to honor and remember the brave men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice serving our country 🇺🇸

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

05/21/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

This market is still living and dying by headlines.

Mortgage bonds slipped again this morning near 𝟵𝟵.𝟰𝟳, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝟰.𝟲𝟮% as oil prices moved higher and markets reacted to another round of Middle East uncertainty.

And once again…

Oil is leading the conversation.

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗸𝘀 𝗵𝗶𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝗺𝗽 🛢️

Oil jumped after Iran’s new leader stated the country would not allow enriched uranium to be shipped abroad a position that could complicate negotiations with the U.S.

Markets reacted immediately.

WTI crude climbed over $𝟭𝟬𝟮 this morning, adding fresh inflation pressure back into the system.

And when oil rises…

Bonds usually struggle.

𝗡𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 👀

Nvidia posted strong earnings…

But the stock still pulled back.

Why?

Because Wall Street had already priced in perfection.

That’s a reminder that in this market, “good” isn’t always enough when expectations get stretched too far.

Stocks overall are lower this morning as markets digest both the earnings reaction and geopolitical uncertainty.

𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗶𝘅𝗲𝗱

Housing Starts and Building Permits both came in stronger than expected, showing housing activity is still holding up despite elevated rates.

Meanwhile:

• Philly Fed missed estimates
• Inflation components improved slightly
• Jobless claims remained low

Translation?

The economy is slowing in some areas… but still showing resilience overall.

𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴

The Fed remains cautious.

Yesterday’s FOMC Minutes highlighted continued concerns about inflation, energy prices, and geopolitical risks.

The message was clear:

The Fed is still very much in “wait and see” mode.

And with Kevin Warsh officially taking over as Fed Chair this Friday, markets are preparing for a new era of Fed leadership.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds remain near major support around **99.50**.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury continues hovering near the key 𝟰.𝟲𝟱% 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘇𝗼𝗻𝗲.

These are important levels the market is watching closely.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

If you’re closing soon…

Locking still makes sense.

Longer-term files may still have room to float selectively, but this remains an extremely volatile, headline-driven environment.

And right now…

Every oil headline matters.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

HomeSmart Advisors

06/02/2026

06/01/2026

05/31/2026

05/30/2026

05/29/2026

05/27/2026

05/26/2026

05/23/2026

05/22/2026

05/21/2026

Address

Opening Hours

Telephone

Website

Alerts

Contact The Business

Shortcuts

Share

Category

Monday	9am - 5pm
Tuesday	9am - 5pm
Wednesday	9am - 5pm
Thursday	9am - 5pm
Friday	9am - 5pm
Saturday	10am - 2pm