What are the opening hours?

Monday 9am - 5pm Tuesday 9am - 5pm Wednesday 9am - 5pm Thursday 9am - 5pm Friday 9am - 5pm Saturday 10am - 2pm

HomeSmart Advisors, 555 Anton Boulevard Suite 383, Costa Mesa, CA (2026)

10/15/2026

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘 | 𝗢𝗖𝗧𝗢𝗕𝗘𝗥 𝟭𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗲!

Yesterday, hotter-than-expected inflation threatened the bond market's recovery.

Today? Treasury yields are falling as investors seek safety.

Apparently, the bond market has trust issues. And this time, inflation isn't the only problem!

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗬

The 10-Year fell toward 𝟱.𝟬𝟴%, providing some welcome relief.

Our roadmap:

𝟱.𝟬𝟴% → 𝗕𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟱% → 𝟰.𝟳𝟬%

Lower Treasury yields can help mortgage rates, especially when MBS prices strengthen.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗦 + 𝗠𝗕𝗦

Mortgage rates remain in the mid-7% range.

MBS could benefit from today's Treasury rally, but sustained buying is what matters.

Remember:

𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 ↓ → 𝗠𝗕𝗦 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 ↑ → 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀.

𝗜𝗡𝗙𝗟𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 + 𝗙𝗘𝗗

September CPI came in hotter than expected:

Headline: 𝟯.𝟳% 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆

Core: 𝟮.𝟲% 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆

Meanwhile, jobless claims remain low at 𝟭𝟵𝟵,𝟬𝟬𝟬.

The Fed faces a complicated combination: sticky inflation, slowing hiring, and relatively few layoffs.

𝗖𝗥𝗨𝗗𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟

WTI: $𝟵𝟰–9𝟱 ↓

Brent: $𝟭𝟬𝟰–1𝟬𝟱 ↓

Oil is retreating, but energy remains an inflation wildcard.

Our target? 𝗪𝗧𝗜 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟵𝟬, ideally toward the $80s.

Lower energy costs can help reduce inflation pressure and support bonds.

𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛

AI infrastructure borrowing and credit concerns are pushing investors toward safer assets.

European bond yields are also easing.

Meanwhile, Middle East tensions and Russia-Ukraine disruptions continue threatening global energy supplies.

𝗛𝗢𝗠𝗘𝗦𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗧 𝗦𝗖𝗢𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗔𝗥𝗗

🟢 10-Year: Improving

🟡 MBS: Potential Relief

🟡 Mortgage Spreads: Important Cushion

🔴 Inflation: Still Hot

🟡 Employment: Cooling

🟡 Fed: Uncertain

🟡 Crude Oil: Retreating

🟢 Global Bonds: Improving

🔴 Geopolitics: Elevated Risk

𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗔𝗟𝗟: 🟡 𝗖𝗔𝗨𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗨𝗦𝗟𝗬 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗨𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗩𝗘

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗨𝗧𝗘

Here's the interesting part.

Bonds can rally because inflation improves.

But they can ALSO rally because investors become nervous about economic and financial risks.

𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼.

For sustained mortgage-rate relief, watch:

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟱%

𝗪𝗧𝗜 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟵𝟬

𝗖𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗕𝗦 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱

One good day doesn't make a trend.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗻'𝘁 𝗽𝗵𝗼𝘁𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗵𝘀. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆'𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘀.

And today's plot twist?

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸. 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀!

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

10/14/2026

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘 | 𝗢𝗖𝗧𝗢𝗕𝗘𝗥 𝟭𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Well, inflation just crashed the bond market's comeback party!

After showing signs of improvement yesterday, mortgage bonds are taking a hit this morning.

The culprit? Hotter-than-expected inflation.

𝗖𝗣𝗜 𝗕𝗥𝗜𝗡𝗚𝗦 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗛𝗘𝗔𝗧

September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) delivered an unwelcome surprise.

Monthly inflation rose 0.6%, its biggest increase since April, while annual headline inflation and core inflation came in hotter than expected.

Why should homebuyers care?

Higher inflation → Higher Treasury yields → More pressure on mortgage rates.

And the bond market wasted no time reacting!

T𝗛𝗘 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 𝗧𝗔𝗞𝗘𝗦 𝗢𝗙𝗙

Before CPI: 5.18%

After CPI: 5.32%

Now: ~5.28%

That's a significant move in just minutes!

Mortgage bonds dropped 44 basis points, giving back yesterday's momentum and falling toward critical support.

Remember, mortgage rates don't simply follow the Fed. They respond to inflation expectations and bond market demand.

𝗔𝗡𝗢𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥 𝗙𝗘𝗗 𝗛𝗜𝗞𝗘?

Today's inflation report has markets reconsidering the Fed's next move.

Fed Funds futures now suggest nearly 50/50 odds of another rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting.

Translation?

The Fed may have more work to do before inflation is under control.

𝗢𝗜𝗟 𝗜𝗦𝗡'𝗧 𝗛𝗘𝗟𝗣𝗜𝗡𝗚

WTI crude climbed to $95.36/barrel as tensions involving Iran intensify.

Higher energy prices can feed inflation, making it harder for long-term rates to improve.

Oil remains the wildcard!

𝗞𝗘𝗬 𝗟𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗟𝗦

Mortgage Bonds: 100.59

Critical Support: 100.50

10-Year Treasury: 5.28%

Yield Range: 5.25%–5.35%

𝗛𝗦𝗔 𝗧𝗔𝗞𝗘𝗔𝗪𝗔𝗬

𝗖𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗼𝗼𝗻? 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴.

Mortgage bonds are sitting just above important support, and today's inflation surprise reminds us how quickly market momentum can change.

If 100.50 breaks, additional pressure on mortgage pricing could follow.

𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗮 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱. 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.

For now, protect the deal and let the market find its footing.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

10/09/2026

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘 | 𝗢𝗖𝗧𝗢𝗕𝗘𝗥 𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The bond market is heading into a three-day weekend, and for once, a little less excitement might be exactly what we need.

After yesterday's improvement, mortgage bonds are holding near 𝟭𝟬𝟬.𝟲𝟵, while the 10-Year Treasury has eased to 𝟱.𝟮𝟱%.

Not exactly a victory lap, but we'll take some stability!

𝗢𝗜𝗟 𝗧𝗔𝗞𝗘𝗦 𝗔 𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥

WTI crude is holding near $𝟵𝟭.𝟱𝟯/𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹.

President Trump indicated the U.S. would hold off on military action against Iran before November's midterm elections.

That has eased some immediate concerns about oil supply disruptions.

Why does this matter?

Less geopolitical risk → potentially lower oil → less inflation pressure → better conditions for mortgage rates.

Oil remains the wildcard!

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗦 𝗔𝗥𝗘 𝗙𝗘𝗘𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗘

Freddie Mac's 30-Year Fixed average climbed to 𝟳.𝟰𝟬%, up from 7.28% last week.

Higher Treasury yields and energy costs have been putting pressure on borrowing costs.

Remember, mortgage rates follow the bond market, not simply the Fed's overnight interest rate.

𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗙𝗘𝗗 𝗚𝗢𝗘𝗦 𝗤𝗨𝗜𝗘𝗧

Fed officials wrap up their public commentary today before the quiet period ahead of the October 27–28 meeting.

Markets will now focus more heavily on incoming economic data.

And next week? We've got plenty!

𝗡𝗘𝗫𝗧 𝗪𝗘𝗘𝗞'𝗦 𝗕𝗜𝗚 𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦

CPI Inflation

PPI Inflation

Retail Sales

Manufacturing Data

These reports could help determine whether inflation is cooling enough to give bonds some relief.

Monday's bond market is closed for Columbus Day, although stocks remain open.

𝗞𝗘𝗬 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗟𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗟𝗦

Mortgage Bonds: 𝟭𝟬𝟬.𝟲𝟵

Important Support: 𝟭𝟬𝟬.𝟱𝟬

10-Year Treasury: 𝟱.𝟮𝟱%

Recent Yield Range: 𝟱.𝟮𝟱%–5.𝟯𝟱%

One quick note: The monthly mortgage bond rollover caused a technical price adjustment, not an actual improvement in mortgage pricing.

𝗛𝗦𝗔 𝗧𝗔𝗞𝗘𝗔𝗪𝗔𝗬

Closing soon? Continue locking.

Longer timelines? Floating selectively may make sense while support holds.

The 10-Year is testing the lower end of its recent range, but bonds still need to prove they can build momentum.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗼𝗱𝘀, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘁'𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴.

Have a great long weekend!

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

10/08/2026

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘 | 𝗢𝗖𝗧𝗢𝗕𝗘𝗥 𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Just when oil was giving mortgage rates some breathing room, geopolitics decided to crash the party.

Mortgage bonds are lower near 100.53, while the 10-Year Treasury is holding around 5.29%.

The market is trying to stabilize, but the headlines aren't helping.

𝗢𝗜𝗟 𝗜𝗦 𝗕𝗔𝗖𝗞!

Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions pushed crude oil near $93 before retreating to around $89.

Why does that matter?

Higher oil = more inflation pressure = potential trouble for mortgage rates.

Oil remains the wildcard.

𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗙𝗘𝗗 𝗜𝗦𝗡'𝗧 𝗗𝗢𝗡𝗘 𝗧𝗔𝗟𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚

Fed Governor Waller says additional rate hikes may be needed if inflation stays stubborn.

Translation: The Fed isn't ready to declare victory.

And remember, mortgage rates don't simply follow the Fed. They follow the bond market and inflation expectations.

𝗚𝗢𝗢𝗗 𝗡𝗘𝗪𝗦 𝗖𝗔𝗡 𝗕𝗘 𝗕𝗔𝗗 𝗡𝗘𝗪𝗦

Weekly Jobless Claims came in at just 197,000.

A strong labor market is great for the economy, but it also gives the Fed more room to keep rates higher.

Sometimes good economic news isn't good news for bonds.

𝗕𝗢𝗡𝗗𝗦 𝗛𝗔𝗧𝗘 𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗘 𝗕𝗢𝗡𝗗𝗦

Today brings a $22 billion 30-Year Treasury auction after yesterday's strong 10-Year auction.

Strong demand could help bonds. Weak demand could push yields higher.

𝗞𝗘𝗬 𝗟𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗟𝗦

Mortgage Bonds: 100.53

Critical Support: 100.50

Resistance: 101.00

10-Year Treasury: 5.29%

Range: 5.25%–5.35%

𝗛𝗦𝗔 𝗧𝗔𝗞𝗘𝗔𝗪𝗔𝗬

Closing soon? Continue locking.

Mortgage bonds are sitting right on important support.

Lower oil helped earlier this week, but inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty are keeping pressure on rates.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝟭𝟬𝟬.𝟱𝟬 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱?

For now, protect the deal and let the market prove itself.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

10/06/2026

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘 | 𝗢𝗖𝗧𝗢𝗕𝗘𝗥 𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
𝗔 𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗪𝗲'𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗶𝘁.

Mortgage bonds are slightly higher near 100.50, while the 10-Year Treasury has eased to around 5.29% after touching 5.35% yesterday.

The market is still under pressure, but two things are finally offering some relief: falling oil prices and renewed focus on government debt.

𝗢𝗜𝗟 𝗜𝗦 𝗙𝗜𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗟𝗬 𝗛𝗘𝗟𝗣𝗜𝗡𝗚
WTI crude has dropped roughly $20 since September 15 and is now near $87/barrel.
Gas prices are following, with the national average around $4.36/gallon, down from $4.45 last week.
Why do mortgage rates care?
Lower energy costs = less inflation pressure = potentially better conditions for bonds and rates.
𝗕𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗧 𝗧𝗔𝗟𝗞𝗦 𝗗𝗘𝗕𝗧
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the government wants to slow the growth of the national debt through stronger economic growth, spending restraint and more sustainable borrowing.
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿?
Heavy government borrowing means more Treasury supply.
And you know our saying:
Bonds hate more bonds.
A credible path toward slower debt growth could eventually help longer-term yields.
𝗕𝗨𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 𝗜𝗦 𝗦𝗧𝗜𝗟𝗟 𝗛𝗜𝗚𝗛
The 10-Year remains near multi-year highs around 5.29%.
Solid economic data and investors moving toward riskier assets continue to make it difficult for bonds to build momentum.
The Nasdaq even hit another record yesterday.
𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧'𝗦 𝗡𝗘𝗫𝗧?
Today: $58B 3-Year Treasury auction
Tomorrow: $39B 10-Year auction
Tomorrow at 2 PM ET: September Fed Minutes
Fed officials will also be speaking before the quiet period begins Friday.
𝗞𝗘𝗬 𝗟𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗟𝗦
Mortgage Bonds: 100.50
Resistance: 101.00
10-Year Treasury: 5.29%
Recent high: 5.35%
𝗛𝗦𝗔 𝗧𝗔𝗞𝗘𝗔𝗪𝗔𝗬
𝗖𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗼𝗼𝗻? 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴.
Lower oil is helping and bonds are trying to stabilize, but we need to see support hold before getting more aggressive.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴.
B𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

10/02/2026

𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 | 𝙊𝙘𝙩𝙤𝙗𝙚𝙧 𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
F𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮…a 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙗𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙗𝙤𝙣𝙙 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚𝙨.

After September’s beating, mortgage rates got help from TWO places today:

𝗦𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀 + 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗶𝗹.

And the bond market noticed.

𝗝𝗢𝗕𝗦 𝗥𝗘𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧
September payrolls increased just 29,000 versus roughly 90,000 expected.

Unemployment moved:
𝟰.𝟭% → 𝟰.𝟮%

August payrolls were also revised lower.

Translation?
The labor market may finally be cooling.
Not collapsing. 𝗖𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴.
And that’s exactly what bonds would rather see.

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 + 𝗠𝗕𝗦
The 10-Year recently touched a 𝟮𝟰-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝟱.𝟯𝟰%.

Today it dropped toward 𝟱.𝟭𝟳%.

Mortgage bonds responded with a strong rally.

Our roadmap:
𝟱.𝟭𝟳% → 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟱.𝟬𝟬% → 𝟰.𝟳𝟬% → 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%

Get convincingly below 5% and things start getting interesting.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗦
Mortgage News Daily’s latest 30-year average improved to approximately 𝟳.𝟱𝟰%.

Still high.

But remember:

𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 ↓ → 𝗠𝗕𝗦 ↑ → 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲

𝗖𝗥𝗨𝗗𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟
This is BIG.

WTI: $𝟴𝟵 ↓
Brent: $𝟵𝟵 ↓

We finally got WTI below $𝟵𝟬, one of the milestones we’ve been watching.

Why does oil matter?
𝗢𝗶𝗹 ↓ → 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 ↓ → 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 ↓ → 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 ↓ → 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆

F𝗘𝗗
The probability of another October Fed hike dropped to roughly 15%, down dramatically from around 69% a week ago.

That’s a major shift in expectations.

𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛
Not everything is green.

European fiscal concerns remain elevated, while Japanese inflation is keeping additional Bank of Japan tightening on the table.

Global bond yields still matter because Treasuries compete for investor capital worldwide.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱
🟢 Jobs: Bond Friendly
🟢 10-Year: Improving
🟢 MBS: Stronger
🟢 WTI: Below $90
🟢 Brent: Below $100
🟢 Fed Expectations: Less Hawkish
🟢 Mortgage Spreads: Supportive
🟡 Mortgage Rates: ~7.54%
🟡 Inflation: Still Elevated
🔴 Global Bonds: Still a Risk
𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹: 🟢🟡 𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗹𝘆 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲
This is the recipe we’ve been waiting for:

𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 ↓
𝗨𝗻𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 ↑
𝗢𝗶𝗹 ↓
𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗼𝗱𝗱𝘀 ↓
𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 ↓
𝗠𝗕𝗦 ↑
𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗮 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.
N𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁𝘀:
1𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 → 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟱% → 𝟰.𝟳𝟬%
W𝗧𝗜 → 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟵𝟬 → $𝟴𝟬𝘀
I𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 → 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗿
M𝗕𝗦 → 𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴

Yesterday the 10-Year was near a 24-year high.

Today the story looks very different.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗻'𝘁 𝗽𝗵𝗼𝘁𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗵𝘀. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆'𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘀.

And finally…the next scene looks a little better.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀
B𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

10/01/2026

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
S𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱…b𝘂𝘁 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗮 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗱.

The 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘁𝗼𝘂𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝟱.𝟯𝟰%, mortgage rates remain above 7.5%, and we're seeing a broader 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗳𝗳.

So what’s driving it?

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 + 𝗼𝗶𝗹 + 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 + 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 + 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆.

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗬
The 10-Year touched 𝟱.𝟯𝟰%, its highest level since 2002.

That matters because mortgage rates are heavily influenced by Treasuries and MBS.
Our roadmap:

𝟱.𝟯𝟰% → 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟱.𝟬𝟬% → 𝟰.𝟳𝟬% → 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%

First mission: get back below 5%.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗦
Mortgage News Daily’s latest 30-year average: 𝟳.𝟲𝟬%.

But there’s an important silver lining:

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗳𝗳.

Think:

𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 = 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗱
M𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 = 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿

Without that cushion, mortgage rates could be even higher.

𝗖𝗥𝗨𝗗𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟
WTI: $𝟵𝟮 ↑
Brent: $𝟭𝟬𝟬 ↑

Energy remains a major inflation wildcard.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 ↑ → 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 ↑ → 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 ↑ → 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 ↑

We still want:

𝗪𝗧𝗜 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟵𝟬 → 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 $𝟴𝟬𝘀.

𝗝𝗢𝗕𝗦 + 𝗙𝗘𝗗

Jobless claims fell to just 𝟭𝟵𝟳,𝟬𝟬𝟬, showing layoffs remain historically low.

Great for workers.

Complicated for bonds.

A resilient labor market gives the Fed less urgency to ease policy.

𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛
This isn’t just America.

UK, European and Japanese bond yields are also at multi-year or multi-decade highs.

Why should we care?

𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹.

When overseas yields rise, U.S. Treasuries must compete for investors.

That can eventually become a mortgage-rate problem.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱
🔴 10-Year: Major Headwind
🔴 Mortgage Rates: 7.60%
🔴 MBS: Under Pressure
🟢 Mortgage Spreads: Cushioning Damage
🟡 WTI: $92
🔴 Brent: $100
🟡 Inflation: Some Improvement
🟡 Jobs: Resilient
🔴 Fed: Restrictive
🔴 Global Bonds: Headwind

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹: 🔴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲

Don't look at 7.5%+ mortgage rates and assume they're permanent.

Markets aren't photographs.

𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆'𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘀.

Right now investors see:

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸
E𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸
H𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀
G𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁
F𝗲𝗱 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆

Change those ingredients and rates can change too.

𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵:

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 → 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟱% → 𝟰.𝟳𝟬%
W𝗧𝗜 → 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟵𝟬 → $𝟴𝟬𝘀
I𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 → 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗿
M𝗕𝗦 → 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿

Right now, the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄.

Get it below 5%, and the mortgage conversation starts changing.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀
B𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

09/30/2026

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟯𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆…i𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗴𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁.

This morning’s PCE report came in 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱, Treasury yields eased, and expectations for another immediate Fed hike pulled back.

Perfect?

Not quite.

Jobs were stronger, consumers are still spending, and crude oil decided to crash the party again.

𝗜𝗡𝗙𝗟𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in better than expected:

𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗣𝗖𝗘: +0.3% MoM | 𝟯.𝟰% 𝗬𝗼𝗬
𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗣𝗖𝗘: +0.2% MoM | 𝟯.𝟬% 𝗬𝗼𝗬

Still too high, but moving in the right direction.

𝗝𝗢𝗕𝗦 + 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗦𝗨𝗠𝗘𝗥
ADP reported +𝟵𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀, beating expectations near 70,000.

Consumer spending also jumped 𝟬.𝟵%.

Translation?

The economy is cooling in some places…but certainly not collapsing.

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 + 𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘𝗦
The 10-Year is around 𝟱.𝟮𝟯%, easing after reaching roughly 5.29%.

Mortgage News Daily’s latest 30-year average: ~𝟳.𝟱𝟴%.

Our roadmap:

𝟱.𝟮𝟯% → 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟱% → 𝟰.𝟳𝟬% → 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%

Mortgage spreads continue acting as a 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿, keeping mortgage rates from being even worse relative to Treasury yields.

C𝗥𝗨𝗗𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟
Oil remains our wildcard.

𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁: ~$𝟭𝟬𝟯

Middle East uncertainty and stalled U.S.–Iran negotiations continue creating supply concerns.

Remember:

𝗢𝗶𝗹 ↑ → 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 ↑ → 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 ↑ → 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 ↑

We still want WTI below $90 → toward $80s.

𝗙𝗘𝗗
Expectations for an immediate October hike are cooling.

That matters because less aggressive Fed expectations can relieve pressure on Treasury yields.

And Friday’s jobs report could change the conversation again.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱
🟢 PCE Inflation: Improving
🟢 Fed Expectations: Less Hawkish
🟡 10-Year: Improving, Still High
🟢 Mortgage Spreads: Supportive
🟡 MBS: Improving Setup
🔴 Mortgage Rates: ~7.58%
🔴 Oil: Inflation Risk
🟡 Jobs: Resilient
🔴 Global Bonds: Headwind
𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹: 🟡 𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗹𝘆 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲
Today is a perfect example of why markets aren't binary:

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗿 = 𝗚𝗢𝗢𝗗
T𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 = 𝗚𝗢𝗢𝗗
F𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 = 𝗚𝗢𝗢𝗗

But…
𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 = 𝗖𝗔𝗨𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡
C𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 = 𝗖𝗔𝗨𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡
O𝗶𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 = 𝗕𝗔𝗗

Next stop: 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆’𝘀 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁.

If employment cools without collapsing while inflation continues improving?

𝗡𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵.

After September’s bond-market beatdown, we’ll take every green shoot we can get.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀
B𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

09/28/2026

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆’𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱-𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆?

Well…oil apparently didn’t get the memo.

We’re starting the week with 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻, 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝟱%, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗦
Mortgage News Daily finished Friday around 𝟳.𝟰𝟯% for a top-tier 30-year fixed.

Last week hurt.

Now the question is whether rates stabilize or the bond market demands even more yield.

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗬
The 10-Year is around 𝟱.𝟮𝟬%-𝟱.𝟮𝟮% this morning.

Our roadmap:

𝟱.𝟮𝟬% → 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟱.𝟬𝟬% → 𝟰.𝟳𝟬% → 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%

Until we convincingly break below 5%, sustained mortgage-rate improvement will be difficult.

𝗖𝗥𝗨𝗗𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟
Here we go again…

𝗪𝗧𝗜: ~$𝟵𝟰–$𝟵𝟱 ↑
𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁: ~$𝟭𝟬𝟳–$𝟭𝟬𝟴 ↑

Oil jumped as U.S.-Iran negotiations stalled and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz returned.

Why does oil matter to mortgages?

𝗢𝗶𝗹 ↑ → 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 ↑ → 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 ↑ → 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗱 ↑

Oil is basically an inflation report that trades every minute.

We still want WTI 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟵𝟬, eventually moving toward the $80s.

𝗙𝗘𝗗 + 𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛

Markets are increasingly pricing another Fed hike as inflation remains stubborn.
And this isn’t just an American bond problem.

Germany’s 10-Year is around 3.63%, while Japan’s 10-Year is near 3.10%, around a 30-year high.

When global yields rise, U.S. Treasuries must compete for investor capital.

𝗕𝗜𝗚 𝗪𝗘𝗘𝗞 𝗔𝗛𝗘𝗔𝗗

Major inflation and employment data are coming, culminating with Friday’s jobs report.

That could matter enormously.

𝗛𝗼𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 + 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀 = 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀.

𝗖𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 + 𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 = 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁.

And mortgage rates can react quickly.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱
🔴 MBS: Weaker
🔴 10-Year: Above 5.20%
🔴 Mortgage Rates: ~7.43%
🟢 Mortgage Spreads: Helping
🔴 Oil: Rising Again
🔴 Inflation: Elevated
🔴 Fed: More Hike Risk
🔴 Global Bonds: Headwind
🔴 Geopolitics: Hormuz Risk
🟡 Economic Data: Big Week Ahead
𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹: 🔴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲-𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗹𝘆

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲
Mortgage rates don’t need the Fed to “lower mortgage rates.”

We need the 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲.

Right now:

𝗢𝗶𝗹 ↑
𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 ↑
𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 ↑
𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 ↑undefined

Change those ingredients and the story changes.

Watch for:

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 → 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟱% → 𝟰.𝟳𝟬%
W𝗧𝗜 → 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟵𝟬
I𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 → 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗿
J𝗼𝗯𝘀 → 𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿
M𝗕𝗦 → 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿

Today’s setup isn't pretty.

But markets aren't photographs.

𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆'𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘀. 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘁.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀
𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

09/25/2026

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
W𝗲𝗹𝗹…t𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗲𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗹𝘆.

The 10-Year Treasury surged above 𝟱.𝟮𝟬% 𝘆𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗱𝗮𝘆, mortgage rates jumped, and bonds took another beating.

This morning? A little relief.

But mortgage rates are still fighting three major headwinds:

𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 + 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗻𝘀 + 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗶𝗹.

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗦
Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year average jumped to approximately 𝟳.𝟰𝟱% yesterday.

Why?

The benchmark underneath mortgage rates moved sharply higher.

𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗬
The 10-Year reached roughly 𝟱.𝟮𝟯% 𝘆𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗱𝗮𝘆 and is around 𝟱.𝟭𝟴%–5.𝟭𝟵% this morning.

Our roadmap now:

𝟱.𝟭𝟴% → 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟱.𝟬𝟬% → 𝟰.𝟳𝟬% → 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%

Until we convincingly break below 5%, sustained mortgage-rate improvement will be difficult.

𝗠𝗕𝗦
Mortgage bonds are attempting a recovery this morning.

Good.

But one green morning after a selloff isn't a trend. We need follow-through.

𝗖𝗥𝗨𝗗𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟
WTI: ~$𝟵𝟯 ↓
Brent: ~$𝟭𝟬𝟱–$𝟭𝟬𝟲 ↓

Potential progress involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is helping oil retreat.
That's important because:
𝗢𝗶𝗹 ↓ → 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 ↓ → 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 ↓ → 𝗠𝗕𝗦 ↑ → 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 ↓

𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁: 𝗪𝗧𝗜 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝟵𝟬.

𝗙𝗘𝗗 + 𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛
Markets are increasingly pricing the possibility of additional Fed tightening as inflation remains stubborn.

Meanwhile, global bond yields remain elevated, adding pressure to U.S. Treasuries.

Germany 10Y: ~𝟯.𝟲𝟰%
UK 10Y: ~𝟱.𝟯𝟴%

This isn't just an American bond problem.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱
🟢 MBS: Attempting Recovery
🔴 10-Year: Above 5%
🔴 Mortgage Rates: ~7.45%
🟢 Mortgage Spreads: Helping
🟢 WTI Oil: ~$93
🔴 Inflation: Elevated
🔴 Fed: Tightening Risk
🔴 Global Bonds: Headwind
🟢 Hormuz Diplomacy: Encouraging

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹: 🔴🟡 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲, 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝗳𝗲𝘄 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝘀

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲

Mortgage rates didn't suddenly jump because the mortgage market “broke.”

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱.

What do we need next?

10-Year → below 5% → 4.70%
WTI → below $90 → $80s
Inflation → cooler
Fed → less hawkish
MBS → sustained buying

Put those together and mortgage rates can change faster than people expect.
For now?

𝗗𝗼𝗻'𝘁 𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗰. 𝗗𝗼𝗻'𝘁 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗯𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲. 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁.

The 10-Year is driving the bus…and apparently it found the fast lane.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀
B𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

HomeSmart Advisors

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