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HomeSmart Advisors, 555 Anton Boulevard Suite 383, Costa Mesa, CA (2026)

06/25/2026

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Today was a win for mortgage rates.

Inflation came in right where markets expected, bond prices moved higher, and Treasury yields continued to drift lower.

The result?

Mortgage rates are getting a little breathing room.

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹

The Fed's favorite inflation report, 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗣𝗖𝗘, came in exactly as expected.

No surprises.

That's good news for the bond market because it reinforces the idea that inflation remains relatively contained.

Meanwhile:

✔️ Consumer spending remained strong.

✔️ Personal incomes increased.

✔️ Q1 GDP was revised higher to 𝟮.𝟭%.

✔️ Jobless claims stayed low.

The economy continues to show resilience without inflation accelerating further.

That's a combination markets like to see.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗞𝗲𝗲𝗽𝘀 𝗛𝗲𝗹𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴

Another tailwind?

Lower oil prices.

WTI crude has dropped to around $𝟲𝟵 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹, nearly back to where it traded before the Middle East conflict intensified.

Lower energy costs help reduce inflation pressure across the economy and have been one of the biggest reasons bonds have improved over the past several weeks.

𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗔𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

The Treasury wraps up this week's auctions today with $𝟰𝟰 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝟳-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀.

Investor demand will be closely watched.

Strong demand could provide additional support for rates heading into next week.

𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲

Fed officials remain on the speaking circuit as markets continue searching for clues about the path of interest rates through the second half of 2026.

For now, expectations for additional Fed rate hikes have eased.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds have now moved 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝟭𝟬𝟬.𝟱𝟬 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹, a positive technical sign.

Meanwhile, the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝟰.𝟯𝟲%, breaking below the key 𝟰.𝟰𝟬% 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹.

That's constructive for mortgage rates.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Today's data checked a lot of boxes:

✅ Inflation remained contained.

✅ The economy continues growing.

✅ Oil prices keep falling.

✅ Bond markets responded positively.

For now, the trend is improving.

Longer-term files may continue benefiting from floating, while we'll keep watching inflation, Treasury auctions, and Fed commentary for the next move.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

06/22/2026

𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗺 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗨𝗽 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗜𝘀 𝗕𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗱

One of the biggest mistakes in socialist thinking is confusing 𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 with 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽.

Labor absolutely matters. Workers help create value. No serious person denies that.

But ownership is not just “who did the work.”

Ownership also carries the burdens most people do not see: risk, capital, liability, debt, delayed reward, coordination, payroll, compliance, customer acquisition, market uncertainty, and losses.

The employee contributes labor and should be compensated for it.

The owner carries the possibility that the business fails, the loan still has to be paid, the lease still comes due, payroll still has to be met, and the losses may come out of their own pocket.

That is the part socialism often skips.

It looks at the finished bakery, the operating business, the revenue, the machinery, the brand, the customers, and the profits then says, “The workers should own this.”

But it ignores the years when there were no profits.

It ignores the founder who signed the lease before there were customers.

It ignores the person who borrowed the money, took the liability, missed sleep, delayed personal income, absorbed losses, and built the system that allowed the labor to become productive in the first place.

Capitalism does not prevent workers from owning businesses.

Workers can start companies, form partnerships, build cooperatives, buy equity, invest, negotiate profit sharing, or create employee-owned firms.

Capitalism allows worker ownership when it is built, bought, earned, or voluntarily structured.

What capitalism rejects is the idea that contribution alone automatically equals ownership.

Because ownership is not just a reward.

Ownership is responsibility.

Socialism wants to jump straight to redistribution after the value has already been created.

Capitalism says if you want ownership, you have the freedom to build it but you also inherit the risk, the liability, the losses, and the responsibility that come with it.

That is the difference.

Labor contributes.

Ownership risks.

And redistribution is not the same thing as entrepreneurship.

06/22/2026

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

At first glance, you'd think rates would be improving today.

Oil is down.

U.S.-Iran talks are showing progress.

nflation fears have eased a bit.

Yet mortgage bonds are slightly lower and Treasury yields are creeping higher.

Why?

Because markets are already looking ahead.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 𝗛𝗮𝘀 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗱

Investors appear less concerned about oil and more concerned about one thing:

Higher-for-longer Fed policy.

The economy continues to show resilience, and markets are increasingly questioning how quickly the Fed will be able to cut rates.

As a result, bond investors are demanding a little more yield.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿

WTI crude briefly traded near $𝟳𝟵 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹 before falling back to around $𝟳𝟱 after reports of major progress in overnight discussions between the U.S. and Iran.

That's a significant improvement from where oil traded during the peak of the conflict earlier this year.

Lower oil helps ease inflation pressures and remains one of the biggest positives for rates moving forward.

𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱

This week is packed with market-moving events.

Investors will be watching:

GDP

Core PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge)

Treasury Auctions

And there are a lot of Treasury auctions.

The government will issue $𝟭𝟴𝟯 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 in new 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes this week.

Strong demand could help rates.

Weak demand could pressure yields higher.

𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻

After the recent Fed meeting, Fed officials are back on the speaking circuit this week.

Markets will be listening closely for any clues on inflation, economic growth, and the path of future rate cuts.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds continue hovering just above the important 𝟭𝟬𝟬/𝗽𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹.

Meanwhile, the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝟰.𝟰𝟵%, right below the key 𝟰.𝟱𝟬% 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲
l𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹

The market is once again approaching a decision point.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

The good news:

Oil prices are falling.

Geopolitical tensions are easing.

The challenge:

⚠️ Markets remain concerned rates could stay higher for longer.

🔒 Closing soon? Consider locking.

Longer-term files may still have room to float as we watch GDP, inflation data, and Treasury demand this week.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

06/17/2026

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

It's Fed Day.

The market's biggest event of the month has arrived as 𝗞𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗵 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗙𝗢𝗠𝗖 𝗺𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘀 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗿.

No rate change is expected today.

The real focus?

What Warsh says next.

The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 𝟯.𝟱𝟬% - 𝟯.𝟳𝟱%.

Markets will be watching for clues on:

• Future rate cuts (or lack thereof)

• Inflation outlook

• Quantitative Tightening (QT)

• Changes to Fed communication and forward guidance

The policy statement drops at 𝟮:𝟬𝟬 𝗣𝗠 𝗘𝗧, followed by Warsh's press conference at 𝟮:𝟯𝟬 𝗣𝗠 𝗘𝗧.

Expect volatility.

Meanwhile, oil continues moving in the right direction.

WTI crude has fallen to $𝟳𝟲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹, a dramatic improvement from the levels seen during the height of the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Lower oil prices help ease inflation pressures and are generally supportive of lower mortgage rates.

The consumer is still spending.

This morning's data came in stronger than expected:

Retail Sales: +𝟬.𝟵% 𝘃𝘀 +𝟬.𝟱% 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱

Pending Home Sales: +𝟯.𝟴% 𝘃𝘀 +𝟬.𝟴% 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱

Even after adjusting for inflation, consumer spending remains near all-time highs.

Translation:

The economy continues to show resilience.

Stocks remain near record highs while bond markets wait for the Fed.

Mortgage bonds are hovering near an important resistance level around 𝟭𝟬𝟬.𝟱𝟬, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝟰.𝟰𝟮%.

The market is essentially saying:

Show us the Fed.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Today's Fed meeting matters more than any economic report this week.

Closing soon? Consider locking.

Longer-term files may still have room to float as mortgage bonds continue stabilizing and oil prices move lower.

The next move in rates may depend on what Kevin Warsh says this afternoon.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

06/13/2026

𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The market spent most of the week doing one thing:

Waiting.

Waiting for inflation data.

Waiting for clarity in the Middle East.

And most importantly...

Waiting for 𝗞𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗵'𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘀 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗿 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸.

Mortgage rates stayed relatively stable, but beneath the surface, there was plenty happening.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱

If you've followed our updates lately, you know the story.

Oil continues to have an outsized influence on rates.

While tensions involving Iran remain unresolved, energy markets have remained surprisingly orderly.

That's important because higher oil prices often translate into higher inflation expectations, and inflation is the biggest enemy of lower mortgage rates.

The good news?

Markets have avoided panic.

The better news?

Investors continue hoping for de-escalation, which could put additional downward pressure on oil prices and potentially help rates.

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗔𝘀 𝗕𝗮𝗱 𝗔𝘀 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀

The headline CPI number grabbed attention as inflation moved above 4%.

But the more important number may have been beneath the surface.

𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗖𝗣𝗜 𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟬.𝟮%, coming in softer than expected.

Translation?

While energy costs are creating inflation pressure, underlying inflation remains relatively contained.

Bond markets liked that.

And that's one reason rates didn't move dramatically higher this week.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀?

Higher rates.

One of the most encouraging developments this week was strong investor demand for Treasury bonds.

Despite elevated yields, investors continue stepping in and buying.

That matters because strong demand helps create a ceiling on rates.

Here's an interesting trend:

For nearly 20 years, every time the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 moved above 𝟰.𝟲𝟬%, it failed to stay there three months later.

Earlier this spring we touched 𝟰.𝟲𝟵%.

Today we're near 𝟰.𝟱𝟮%.

History doesn't guarantee anything.

But it's a trend worth watching.

𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗘𝘆𝗲𝘀 𝗢𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱

Next week is the main event.

Kevin Warsh will lead his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.

Markets expect no rate change.

What investors really want to hear is:

• Will Warsh change how the Fed communicates?
• Will the Dot Plot remain?
• Will Quantitative Tightening remain a priority?
• How does he view inflation from here?

The answers could shape rates for the rest of 2026.

𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀

Next week's key reports:

🏠 Housing Starts & Building Permits

🛍️ Retail Sales

📈 Jobless Claims

🏡 Pending Home Sales

🏛️ FOMC Rate Decision

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

The market appears stuck between cooling inflation and stubborn energy risks.

For now, rates remain rangebound.

Next week's Fed meeting could be the catalyst that finally breaks the stalemate.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

06/11/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The market got a little surprising today.

Despite hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation and fresh geopolitical headlines, mortgage bonds are actually holding up pretty well.

Sometimes the market doesn't react the way you'd expect.

𝗣𝗣𝗜 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗜𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝘁

Producer Prices (PPI), which measure wholesale inflation, rose more than expected in May.

• PPI: +1.1% vs. 0.7% expected
• Core PPI: +0.4% vs. 0.5% expected

At the same time, Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 𝟮𝟮𝟵,𝟬𝟬𝟬, suggesting the labor market may be cooling slightly.

The result?

A mixed report that left investors debating what's next for inflation and the economy.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝗽𝗶𝗸𝗲𝘀... 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗚𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗜𝘁 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸

Middle East tensions escalated after President Trump stated the U.S. would respond aggressively toward Iran and target key infrastructure.

Oil initially jumped near $𝟵𝟮 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹.

But by mid-morning?

Most of those gains had faded.

WTI is now hovering near $𝟵𝟬.

For now, markets seem more interested in actual developments than dramatic headlines.

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗕𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸

After yesterday's sharp selloff, stocks are recovering.

Investors appear encouraged that bond yields aren't moving significantly higher despite the inflation data.

That's helping risk sentiment improve.

𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗔𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

Today brings a $𝟮𝟮 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝟯𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.

Yesterday's 10-Year auction was well received, and today's results could provide another clue about investor demand for bonds at current yield levels.

𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝗼𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗧𝗼 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱

The Fed remains in blackout mode ahead of next week's June 16-17 meeting.

Markets continue expecting no rate change.

The bigger question is what the Fed says about inflation, growth, and the path forward under Chair Warsh.

𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀

Mortgage Bonds: Holding near 100/par support

10-Year Treasury: 4.52%

Key support: 4.50%

For now, the bond market continues trying to stabilize.

𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

The market absorbed hotter inflation data better than many expected.

That's encouraging.

Closing soon? Locking still makes sense.

Longer-term files may still have room to float as markets continue searching for direction ahead of next week's Fed meeting.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

06/10/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Inflation Day came...

And the market basically shrugged.

After one of the most anticipated reports of the month, mortgage bonds and Treasury yields are sitting almost exactly where they were before the data was released.

Sometimes no reaction is the reaction.

𝗖𝗣𝗜 𝗖𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗜𝗻 𝗔𝘀 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱

May inflation data was mostly in line with forecasts.

Headline CPI rose:

• 𝟬.𝟱% 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵-𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿-𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵
• 𝟰.𝟮% 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿-𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿

Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in a little better than expected.

That's the good news.

The not-so-good news?

Headline inflation is now back above 𝟰% for the first time in three years.

Much of that increase continues to be tied to energy prices.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗜𝘀 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗜𝗻 𝗙𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀

Just as markets were digesting inflation data, geopolitical tensions heated up again.

Reports indicate an Iranian drone downed a U.S. military helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, followed by retaliatory U.S. strikes.

Markets are watching closely.

WTI crude is back near **$89 per barrel**, and oil remains one of the biggest wildcards for inflation and interest rates.

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗔 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿

Stocks are lower today as investors react to the geopolitical headlines and take some profits after the recent run to record highs.

Nothing unusual.

Markets don't move in a straight line.

𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗔𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱

The Treasury will auction $𝟯𝟵 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀 today.

Normally that wouldn't be a huge story.

But in today's environment, auction demand matters.

Strong demand could help rates.

Weak demand could put pressure on yields.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗤𝘂𝗶𝗲𝘁

The Fed remains in blackout mode ahead of next week's June 16-17 meeting.

Markets still expect no rate change.

The bigger question is what investors learn from the Fed's outlook and whether Kevin Warsh begins putting his fingerprints on future policy communication.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds continue hovering right near the important 𝟭𝟬𝟬/𝗽𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹.

Meanwhile, the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝟰.𝟱𝟮%, just above key support around 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%.

The market is stabilizing...

But not breaking out.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Today's inflation report didn't change the story.

Oil, geopolitics, and next week's Fed meeting remain the bigger drivers.

Closing soon? Locking still makes sense.

Longer-term files? Floating may still be appropriate while markets continue searching for direction.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

06/09/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The market is finally catching a little relief.

Mortgage bonds are attempting to stabilize, Treasury yields are drifting lower, and oil prices are cooling as tensions in the Middle East ease for now.

The big stor

Lower oil prices are helping rates breathe again.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀, 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝗱

Israel and Iran have reportedly agreed to halt direct attacks, reducing some of the geopolitical fear that has been hanging over markets.

As a result:

WTI crude has fallen to **$88.61 per barrel**

National average gas prices have dropped to $𝟰.𝟭𝟲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗴𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗻, down from $𝟰.𝟱𝟯 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗴𝗼

Lower energy costs help reduce inflation pressure throughout the economy, which is generally positive for bonds and mortgage rates.

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗡𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘀

Markets are responding positively.

Stocks are moving higher today, helped by:

• Cooling Middle East tensions
• Lower oil prices
• Continued strength in AI-related stocks

Investors appear more comfortable taking risk as geopolitical concerns temporarily fade.

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗧𝗼𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄

Today is relatively quiet.

The big event arrives Wednesday morning.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

This is one of the most important inflation reports of the month and could have a major impact on mortgage rates, bonds, and market expectations heading into next week's Fed meeting.

Thursday brings PPI, which measures wholesale inflation.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗜𝘀 𝗤𝘂𝗶𝗲𝘁

The Federal Reserve remains in its blackout period ahead of next week's June 16–17 meeting.

Markets continue expecting the Fed to hold rates steady.

However, many investors are watching closely to see how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh handles future communication, including whether updated projections and the famous Dot Plot remain part of the process.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds continue hovering near the important 𝟭𝟬𝟬/𝗽𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹.

Meanwhile, the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟰.𝟱𝟯%, with support near 𝟰.𝟱𝟬%.

The market appears to be searching for direction ahead of CPI.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Right now, oil prices are helping rates.

But inflation data will likely determine the next move.

Closing soon? Locking still makes sense.

Longer-term files? Floating may still be worth considering as markets attempt to stabilize.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

06/08/2026

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The market is doing a lot of waiting right now.

Waiting for inflation data.

Waiting for the Fed.

And waiting to see if the latest Middle East headlines turn into something bigger.

For now, mortgage bonds and Treasury yields are mostly stuck in neutral.

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗛𝗮𝘀 𝗔𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗱

This week's main event is simple:

CPI on Wednesday

PPI on Thursday

These two reports could have a major impact on mortgage rates and market expectations heading into next week's Fed meeting.

If inflation comes in cooler than expected, bonds could get a boost.

If inflation surprises higher, rates could face renewed pressure.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗔 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱

The situation between the U.S., Iran, and Israel remains tense.

Over the weekend, new exchanges between Israel and Iran pushed oil near $𝟵𝟲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹 overnight.

Since then, prices have eased back toward $𝟵𝟭.

Interestingly, markets are becoming a bit numb to the headlines.

For now, investors seem more focused on inflation data than geopolitics.

𝗚𝗮𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴

There is at least one bright spot for consumers.

According to AAA, the national average price for regular gasoline has fallen from $𝟰.𝟱𝟮 𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗼 $𝟰.𝟭𝟲 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆.

That's welcome news for household budgets and could help reduce inflation pressure over time.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗞𝗲𝗲𝗽𝘀 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗴

The U.S. Dollar continues strengthening as investors adjust expectations for future Fed policy.

Higher Treasury yields and fewer expected rate cuts have helped support demand for dollar-denominated assets.

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱

Stocks are higher as investors focus on inflation reports this week and next week's FOMC meeting.

The Federal Reserve is now officially in its pre-meeting quiet period, meaning no more Fed commentary until the June 16-17 meeting.

The data now does the talking.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds are sitting right on top of key support near 𝟭𝟬𝟬/𝗽𝗮𝗿.

Meanwhile, the 10-Year Treasury is at 𝟰.𝟱𝟯%, just below important resistance near 𝟰.𝟱𝟱%.

The market is approaching decision time.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

This week is all about inflation.

CPI and PPI will likely determine whether rates improve, stall, or move higher heading into the Fed meeting.

Closing soon? Locking still makes sense.

Longer timelines? Floating may still be worth considering.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

06/06/2026

𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Mortgage rates moved a little higher this week...

But the bigger story wasn't rates.

It was oil, jobs, and inflation.

Let's break it down. 👇

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗳𝘂𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗚𝗼 𝗔𝘄𝗮𝘆

The Middle East remained front and center this week.

Every headline out of Iran seemed to move markets.

Despite the daily drama, oil spent most of the week hovering near $𝟵𝟬 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹.

Why does that matter?

Because higher energy costs can keep inflation elevated.

And inflation is something bond markets absolutely hate.

𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝘆 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀

One of our favorite sayings:

"𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀."

This week's labor data showed the job market remains surprisingly strong.

✔️ JOLTS job openings beat expectations

✔️ ADP private payrolls came in stronger than forecast

The takeaway?

Businesses are still hiring.

Consumers are still working.

And housing demand continues to have a solid foundation underneath it.

Strong employment can sometimes keep rates elevated, but it's also one of the biggest reasons the economy continues to avoid recession fears.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆

A few weeks ago, the 10-Year Treasury briefly touched 𝟰.𝟳𝟬% and had markets nervous.

Today?

It's back near 𝟰.𝟰𝟱%.

That's important because mortgage rates tend to follow the direction of the 10-Year Treasury.

For nearly 20 years, every time yields pushed above 𝟰.𝟲𝟬%, they eventually moved lower within a few months.

History doesn't guarantee anything...

But it's a trend worth watching.

𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸

The market's attention now shifts to:

CPI Inflation Report

PPI Inflation Report

Housing Data

Consumer Sentiment

These reports could determine where mortgage rates head next.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

The economy remains resilient.

The labor market remains strong.

Oil remains a wildcard.

And inflation is still the market's main focus.

Next week's data could set the tone for the rest of June.

Stay tuned.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

HomeSmart Advisors

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