Mortgages with Samantha - Certainty Home Lending

09/03/2026

⚠️ Meaningful late-day improvement: Treasuries held onto the post-ADP recovery into the close.

After surging as high as roughly 4.81%–4.82% this morning, the 10-year Treasury finished Wednesday around 4.78%. That means the softer ADP employment report produced a roughly 3–4 bp reversal from the day’s worst levels, rather than the relief disappearing later in the session.

That’s useful for mortgage pricing because today’s move suggests the bond market is at least beginning to respond to evidence of labor-market weakening. However, Brent crude still closed around $95.63, so the inflation pressure that caused this week’s selloff hasn’t gone away.

🟢 Mortgage pricing: Modestly favorable versus this morning. This isn’t enough to call a broader bond-market reversal yet, but closing near 4.78% instead of 4.82% on the 10-year reduces immediate MBS pressure and is a much better setup for Thursday’s rate sheets than today’s early trading suggested.

The bigger test remains Friday’s employment report. A weak payroll number could build on today’s recovery; a strong report could quickly put 4.80%+ back in play.

09/01/2026

Mortgage markets are under pressure this morning as escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz push oil prices higher and reignite inflation concerns. MBS are currently down 7 ticks, while the 10-year Treasury is testing year-to-date highs near 4.80%, keeping rate sheets under pressure. Geopolitical risk is arriving at a time when investors were already questioning whether inflation is fully contained.

Adding to the selloff, Treasury yields continue to face a powerful supply headwind. Bloomberg notes the long bond is experiencing its worst stretch since 2006, with 30-year yields recently reaching their highest levels since 2007. Markets are also preparing for roughly $215 billion of corporate bond issuance this month, adding to already elevated Treasury borrowing needs and forcing investors to absorb another wave of fixed income supply.

The combination of higher oil prices, record government deficits, heavy bond issuance, and an important Fed meeting later this month is creating a difficult backdrop for rates. Until the market sees relief on inflation, supply, or geopolitics, Treasury yields appear biased toward the upper end of this year's range, with mortgage rates likely moving higher alongside them.

08/31/2026

🏢 Condo financing guidelines have changed.

If you’re buying or selling a condo in Georgia or Alabama, or you’re a real estate agent helping a client with a condo purchase, it’s more important than ever to get the lender involved EARLY.

Some condo transactions may require additional documentation, condo project review, and longer approval timelines depending on the loan program and property.

The earlier we review the financing AND the condo, the better chance we have of identifying potential issues before they become closing-day problems. 🙌

Have questions about condo financing or condo loan requirements in GA or AL? Let’s connect!

🏡 Mortgages with Samantha - Certainty Home Lending
📍 Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator in Georgia & Alabama

08/28/2026

Well… the Fed basically just said “don’t get too comfortable.” 😂👀

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole this morning, and the message was pretty clear:

Inflation is still too high, and another rate hike is NOT off the table.

Markets were hoping for a little reassurance. Instead, Warsh said the Fed still has work to do and could raise rates again if inflation doesn’t continue moving toward their 2% goal.

Naturally, the bond market didn’t love that. 😅

What does this mean for mortgage rates?

For now, it’s not favorable for mortgage pricing. It doesn’t mean the Fed will hike again, and it definitely doesn’t mean mortgage rates automatically jump because the Fed changes its rate.

It DOES mean the upcoming jobs and inflation reports just became even more important.

And this is exactly why I keep saying: don’t try to perfectly time the mortgage market. Rates can change quickly based on one report, one speech, or sometimes one sentence. 😂

Get preapproved. Know your numbers. Be ready when the opportunity makes sense for YOU. 🏡

And yes… I’ll be over here watching the bond market so you don’t have to. 😂📉

Mortgages with Samantha - Certainty Home Lending 📍 Licensed in GA and AL 📍

08/27/2026

📰 🚨 THIS could be a game changer for a lot of future homebuyers.

Fannie Mae is modernizing the way credit is evaluated, adding VantageScore 4.0 as an approved credit scoring model and paving the way for FICO 10T. 🏡

Why does that matter?

These newer models can look at credit differently — including things like on-time rent payments and trended credit data — potentially giving a more complete picture of someone’s actual creditworthiness. (fanniemae.com⁠)

Translation: someone who may not look as strong under the old scoring system could potentially look different under the newer models.

⚠️ This does NOT mean every lender can use VantageScore 4.0 today. Fannie Mae is currently rolling it out to a limited group of approved lenders, (US! 💃🏻) with broader implementation still ahead. (singlefamily.fanniemae.com⁠)

But this is absolutely something to watch.

If credit has been the thing holding you back from buying a home, don’t assume your “no” today will always be a no. 👀

The mortgage world is changing — and this change may open doors for a lot of people. 🔑🏡

Read the Fannie Mae announcement⁠: https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/credit-score-updates-advance-modernization

Fannie Mae announced upcoming updates to its Selling Guide to allow for the use of VantageScore® 4.0, effective immediately, and the future use of FICO® Score 10T credit scores for loans delivered to Fannie Mae.

08/27/2026

Rates aren’t out yet this morning, but the bond market is already giving us a little preview… 👀

Jobless claims came in lower than expected, meaning the job market is still holding pretty strong. Normally that’s great news — but mortgage rates are weird 😂. A strong economy can make it harder for rates to move significantly lower.

The bond market is reacting a little this morning, but nothing dramatic, and our actual mortgage rates haven’t even been released yet. I’m expecting those around 10 AM.

And this is exactly why I tell buyers don’t wait on a “perfect” rate to get preapproved. A preapproval doesn’t lock you into today’s rate — it just lets us figure out your buying power, estimated payment and options so you’re READY when the right house and the right rate come along. 🏡

Plus, I can start with a soft credit pull, so checking your options doesn’t impact your credit score.

Know your numbers now. Decide when to move later. 👏

Mortgages with Samantha - Certainty Home Lending 📍 Licensed in GA and AL 📍

08/18/2026

Okay, this is a longer one… but stay with me because if you’ve been wondering WHY mortgage rates are still being so stubborn, this is a big piece of the puzzle. 👀

We talk a lot about inflation, the Fed, jobs reports, etc. when we talk about mortgage rates.

But there’s something else happening in the bond market that I think is worth paying attention to: the amount of debt the U.S. government is issuing.

Right now, the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.7% after reaching roughly 4.74% this morning. That matters to us in the mortgage world because mortgage rates tend to move in the same general direction as longer-term Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities. (StoneX⁠)

And lately… yields have been getting beat up.

So what does government debt have to do with your mortgage rate?

Look at the chart. 👇

In 2020 — during COVID, stimulus programs and a massive economic emergency — gross Treasury issuance jumped to around $20.8 TRILLION.

At the time, that number was crazy.

Fast forward to 2025…

Over $30 TRILLION. 🤯

And we’re not in the middle of a COVID-style shutdown anymore.

A huge amount of Treasury debt has to continually be issued and refinanced. When there are more bonds hitting the market, investors have to be willing to buy them.

And if investors aren’t willing to buy them at lower yields?

👉 Yields have to become more attractive.

Higher Treasury yields put pressure on borrowing costs throughout the economy — including mortgages.

That’s part of why watching the Fed alone doesn’t tell you everything about where mortgage rates are headed.

The bond market is also looking at inflation, oil prices, government deficits, Treasury supply, economic data and what investors are willing to pay for all of that debt. Concerns over inflation and fiscal pressures have been major drivers of the recent global bond selloff. (Y100 WNCY⁠)

Now for a little GOOD news today…

We actually got some softer economic data this morning.

July housing starts fell 12.4%, much more than expected, with single-family starts falling 9.9%. (Reuters⁠)

That helped Treasuries recover from their earlier lows, with the 10-year yield backing off its morning high. (The Wall Street Journal⁠)

So while the bigger picture is still putting pressure on rates, we did get a little relief as the morning went on.

What does all of this mean if you’re buying a house?

It does NOT mean “don’t buy.”

And it definitely doesn’t mean I can tell you exactly where rates will be next month. 😂 If anyone tells you they can predict rates with certainty, run.

What it DOES mean is that there are a lot more moving pieces behind your mortgage rate than “Did the Fed cut rates?”

This is also why I’m such a big believer in actually structuring a mortgage around the individual buyer — looking at loan programs, seller credits, rate buydowns, down payment options and the overall payment instead of getting hung up on one headline about interest rates.

Sometimes the difference isn’t waiting for the “perfect” market.

It’s knowing how to work with the market we have. 🏡

And THIS is the kind of stuff I’m watching every day for my borrowers. 📈📉

Mortgages with Samantha - Certainty Home Lending 📍 Licensed in GA and AL 📍

08/14/2026

If you need a lender you can trust, you know where to find me. 😎

Mortgages with Samantha - Certainty Home Lending 📍 Licensed in GA and AL 📍

(404) 345-5991 (Call/Text)

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