05/26/2026
🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
Rates pushed to the highest levels this year on Tuesday, but then moved lower after news broke that negotiations with Iran were progressing.
𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 👍
Rates will continue to track oil prices and follow headlines about a deal with Iran that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Minor military skirmishes aren’t likely to hurt rates as long as they don’t derail negotiations, but if the ceasefire were to end, we would see rates jump.
📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
• The Middle East: Peace talks continue with Iran, albeit slowly, as both sides push for concessions and compromises. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic, and we are not likely to see mortgage rates move significantly lower from here until it reopens, though we could see modest improvement from recent highs.
• The Fed: Markets expect the Fed will be unable to cut rates this year and may even have to hike, as inflation continues to worry investors and traders.
• Economic data: It's a holiday-shortened week, but Thursday brings a few reports, including some inflation data. However, they shouldn’t cause any big moves in rates.