06/15/2026
Market update as of this weekends peace deal.
Hopefully this will be positive for the rate market soon.
Markets are responding exactly how you’d expect to a geopolitical relief valve. Equity futures are pointing higher with sentiment improving as tail-risk fades. Oil has dropped sharply to ~$80/barrel—back near three-month lows—as supply concerns tied to Hormuz begin to unwind. Rates are following suit with a classic risk-on twist: Treasuries catching a bid as the inflation impulse from energy fades and expectations for Fed tightening ease. The 10yr is down ~3–4bps to ~4.44%, while MBS are opening about 5 ticks higher. The move reflects a market quickly repricing away the worst-case inflation and growth outcomes tied to a prolonged Middle East supply shock.
This is a cleaner setup for rates. Lower oil means less inflation pressure, which helps rates stay in check and supports mortgage pricing. With geopolitics calming down, markets can refocus on the Fed and economic data. Bottom line: this is a more favorable backdrop for borrowers—steady rates and improving market.
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