05/05/2026
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📉 Market Update (Quick + Real Talk)
After yesterday’s selloff, we’re seeing bond markets settle down a bit this morning as geopolitical tension eases (for now). Rates are pulling back slightly, but let’s be clear—this market is still VERY headline-driven and quick to react.
👉 Translation: calmer… but not exactly stable.
On the data side:
* ISM came in right where expected 👌
* Job openings (JOLTS) held steady
* Layoffs ticked up slightly
Nothing dramatic—but it continues to show a gradual cooling in the job market, not a crash.
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are still a little all over the place as the market balances:
* Fed messaging
* Oil/inflation concerns
* Overall rate volatility
We did see a small improvement today (+5 ticks), but there’s still sensitivity across the board.
⚠️ Bottom line:
We’re in a market where things can shift quickly. The tone feels better today, but conviction is still thin and we’re watching that 10-year range closely (4.40–4.45% 👀).
If you’re buying, refinancing, or just watching from the sidelines—this is one of those times where strategy matters more than headlines.
Feel free to reach out if you want to talk through timing or options 👍
