05/23/2026
A few things driving markets this week:
• Peace talk headlines involving Iran continue creating volatility in oil prices and bond markets, which has kept mortgage rates moving around quite a bit.
• Inflation remains persistent enough that markets have significantly reduced expectations for Fed cuts in 2026.
• Fed meeting minutes showed policymakers are increasingly divided. Some still favor future cuts if the economy weakens, while others believe additional hikes could still happen if inflation stays elevated.
• Kevin Warsh officially became the new Fed Chair this week, and markets are still trying to determine what that could mean for future policy.
One important reminder:
Mortgage rates do NOT move directly with the Fed. Inflation, bond markets, oil prices, and global events can all significantly influence rates.
Real-world impact:
Even a 0.5% move in rates can change monthly payments by a few hundred dollars depending on price point. Small market moves can affect affordability more than many people expect.
With volatility staying elevated, tools like Lock & Shop have been valuable for some buyers who want flexibility while reducing exposure to sudden market swings.
If you ever want help thinking through strategy or scenarios, I’m always happy to help.