Unify Financial Advisors

02/10/2025

The S&P 500 declined 0.23% last week. Declines in US equity indexes and gains in international equity indexes can be attributed to tariff expectations. US equity valuations are elevated, while non-US equity valuations are low relative to historical averages. Home bias investing is the tendency to invest in domestic companies for comfort. If you exhibit a home bias, consider getting outside of your comfort zone and staying diversified.

Inflation data for January is available this week with the release of the latest Consumer Price Index report. Prices rose 0.4% in December and 2.9% for the 12 months ending in December. After months of stalled inflation data, we anticipate a slight decline in CPI from the December figures.

Check out the JP Morgan Week Market Recap for details and their Thought of the week.

02/03/2025

Stocks started in the red last week following the DeepSeek AI news, but they managed to claw back most of their losses throughout the week. However, following the tariff announcement Friday afternoon, stocks sold off, and the S&P 500 finished the week down -0.99%. We saw solid earnings from big tech companies, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. On the economic side, inflation seems to have stalled, growth remains solid on the back of strong consumer spending, and the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady.

Tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico will continue to dominate this week. The Trump administration's aggressive stance on tariffs could be a power play for negotiating reasonable terms for the US and its trade partners. The Employment Situation release and corporate earnings from Chipotle, Disney, Uber, and Amazon will steal some of the limelight this week.

Check out the JP Morgan Weekly Market Recap for their "Thought of the week" on the Magnificent 7 earnings and valuations.

01/29/2025

Where does your college football team rank in value? My Florida Gators are ranked fourteenth.

The Ohio State Buckeyes were just crowned the best team in the country. According to an analysis of what each team would be worth on the open market, they’re also the most valuable program in the sport.

01/28/2025

Last week, the S&P 500 gained 1.74% on optimism around corporate earnings, pro-business policies, and a barrage of executive orders issued during President-elect Donald Trump's first week in office.

This week was ignited by headlines stemming from viral social media posts over the weekend that DeepSeek, a China-based company, created an artificial intelligence open-source model that competes with rivals like ChatGPT for a fraction of the computing costs. White papers released by DeepSeek in December claim the costs of developing the open-source AI model were a mere $5.576m. Nvidia, the company known for making expensive high-end chips for AI, plunged 17% on concerns that the new technology could hurt demand for their chips. Earnings calls from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple later this week could shed some light on DeepSeek's AI model technology and uses.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Jerome Powell will likely field questions on President Donald Trump's campaign for lower rates. We get our first look at the fourth quarter GDP estimates on Thursday, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), reports Friday.

For more details on last week's markets and the "Thought of the week", check out the attached JP Morgan Weekly Market Recap.

01/22/2025

Last week, the stock market saw a strong rebound following cooler-than-expected inflation data from December's Consumer Price Index (CPI), easing concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. The S&P 500 rose 2.93%, erasing its losses for the year. Additionally, major banks reported earnings that exceeded expectations. The rally in both stock and bond markets reinforces the importance of staying invested over the long term. As the saying goes, "time in the market, not timing" is a proven long-term investment strategy.

Following the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, political headlines will dominate the shortened trading week as President Donald Trump takes office. However, investors should avoid letting political tilts heavily influence their investment decisions. A well-diversified portfolio that aligns with your objectives remains the cornerstone of successful investing.

For a more detailed analysis of last week's markets and economic trends, check out the JP Morgan Weekly Market Update.

01/14/2025

Is giving your time over your money the secret to happiness? Check out this article and let me know what you think.

Is volunteering the secret to a happy, healthy life? If you devote time to others, the evidence suggests you may reap significant rewards.

01/13/2025

Last week, solid job numbers were a case of good news is bad news for the markets, with the S&P 500 declining by (1.91%). Job creation and openings support economic growth but can prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain higher rates for longer to fulfill its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. As long-term investors, we prefer a strong jobs market and cautious Fed over a weak jobs market and easy Fed policy. The latter is usually in response to a poor economy and can lead to a recession.

This week, the release of December inflation data, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), should show little change over last month. A cooler December CPI could be the spark stocks need to bounce back. Conversely, a warm CPI report could add momentum to the 4.3% decline in the S&P 500 since December 6, 2024.

01/06/2025

Last week, we closed out 2024 with a bang and rang in the New Year. The S&P 500 declined -0.45% for the week but rose 23% over the year and hit 57 new all-time highs. The Magnificent 7 and technology indexes have outperformed the S&P 500 for two consecutive years. Prudent rebalancing can reduce concentrated tech stock holdings or overweight tech sector allocations, optimizing your portfolio's risk and return objectives.

All eyes will be on the December employment figures, released at the end of this week. The Federal Reserve pays particular attention to the jobs report as it relates to the Fed's primary policy goals of full employment and 2.0% inflation.

Please read JP Morgan's Weekly Market Recap for a deeper analysis of last week's markets and economic events.

12/30/2024

Last week was a time for reflection and family. I hope that your week consisted of both. Stocks reflected on a positive year, ending the week up 0.70%, but volatility crept in Friday across all major US stock indexes. Through Friday, the S&P 500 was up 26.90% YTD. Bonds were up 0.93% for the same period.

This week, US large-cap stocks should wrap up 2024 with another year of consecutive 20%+ gains, only the fourth time of back-to-back 20%+ consecutive gains since 1900. As we enter the new year, stocks could continue their momentum but experience higher volatility with looming uncertainty around fiscal and foreign policy changes.

I hope you have a joyous holiday season and a prosperous new year! For a deeper dive into last week's markets and economic events, please read the latest issue of JP Morgan's Weekly Market Update.

12/16/2024

Last week, warm November inflation readings for CPI and PPI put downward pressure on stocks and bonds, with the S&P 500 declining 0.61% and longer-term yields increasing 0.25%. Rent inflation has been stubborn since the pandemic, but last week's underlying data for rents showed their weakest pace in over three years, suggesting further progress on inflation.

Investors will focus on retail sales and the FOMC rate decision this week. The CME FedWatch has a 95.4% probability of a 0.25% rate cut. Cutting the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% would lower the prime rate to 7.5%. The prime rate is used as a basis for many variable-rate loan products, including credit cards and home equity lines of credit. It peaked at 8.5% in July 2023.

Read the JP Morgan Weekly Market Recap for a deeper dive into last week's markets and economic events.

12/09/2024

Last week, consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology stocks saw gains, which were tempered by declines in energy, utilities, real estate, and materials. The S&P 500 gained 0.99%, and the Russell 1000 growth gained 3.64%.

Friday's labor report showed strong November hiring and upward revisions for September. The strong hiring and an increase in the employment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% should keep the Fed on course to cut rates by 0.25% on December 18th.

November inflation data is available this week with the releases of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). In October, the CPI rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% for the year, while the PPI ticked up 0.2% for October and 2.2% for the year. The market expects little change in November's inflation data compared to September.

12/04/2024

The postelection euphoria has given way to a more pragmatic analysis of how changes in Washington may shake out, but Inauguration Day is still far enough away not to cause too much worry. For now, there seems to be little to stop a year-end Santa Claus rally in the stock markets.