07/29/2026
The Fed met today... and once again reminded everyone that mortgage rates and the Fed Funds Rate are like cousins—related, but they don't live in the same house. 😄
Here's what many people miss: As long as the Fed does what the market expects, today's decision is usually a non-event for mortgage rates. The markets have typically priced the decision in long before the announcement is made.
The Fed's dual mandate is simple: keep inflation under control and maintain maximum employment. Right now, the employment picture is looking pretty peachy, so the spotlight is squarely on inflation.
And what's in the driver's seat for inflation these days? Oil. Energy prices ripple through nearly every part of the economy—from transportation and manufacturing to the cost of goods on store shelves. As oil prices come down, gas prices typically follow. Lower transportation and production costs help bring down the price of just about everything, easing inflation. And when inflation cools, mortgage rates often have room to improve as well.
🏡 Waiting for the "perfect" rate has cost many buyers far more in higher home prices than they've ever saved on interest. Buy the right home when it makes sense for you, and if rates improve later, refinance.
The good news? Inflation has been trending in the right direction, the labor market remains healthy, and if oil continues to cooperate, the outlook for mortgage rates could continue improving.
And if you don't like today's picture, don't worry... there will probably be a new one tomorrow. 😄 Markets change every day, and if there's one thing that's certain in this business, it's that change is the only constant.
If you're wondering whether today's market creates an opportunity for you, let's run the numbers. The answer might surprise you.
