Chris at The Mortgage Exchange

11/11/2024

11/09/2024

Just imagine having your family holiday meal in this beautiful dining room!

Contact me today to see this beautiful house near downtown Michigan City!

11/09/2024

09/19/2024

In the past few days/weeks, even years…I have had conversations with clients, realtors, friends and even strangers about how Fed rate cuts not only had absolutely no implication for lower mortgage rates, but that actually, mortgage rates have often moved higher on the same day that the Fed cuts the Fed Funds rate.

That's what happened today.

Interestingly enough, mortgage rates were already slightly higher than yesterday BEFORE the Fed announcement came out. The bonds that dictate mortgage rates are actually pointing to even higher rates tomorrow unless there's a decent improvement overnight.
Given short attention spans, here's a bullet point list of why this paradox can exist:
* The Fed meets 8 times a year whereas mortgages can move every day
* The bonds that influence mortgages can move every second.
* That means mortgage rates had a long head start toward lower rates while the Fed waited for their meeting date
* A trader would be stupid to keep a tradeable rate/bond in higher territory if they knew as well as you did that the Fed was cutting rates today. Why would they wait to trade mortgage rates lower? Nothing was stopping them and that's why rates have dropped so much in recent months.
Some other angles of bullet points on the same topic:
* The actual Fed rate cut itself is only only one part of Fed day and usually not the most important part
* The Fed also releases a rate outlook from each member every other meeting. Today's meeting was one of them
* The Fed also conducts a post-announcement press conference in which the Fed Chair can refine the market's takeaway and help shape expectations for the road ahead.
In not so many words, Fed Chair Powell's press conference was less rate-friendly than you might expect given the 0.50% cut to the Fed Funds Rate.
Here's the kicker: nothing about today means much of anything for the trajectory for rates from here on out. There's probably a slightly bigger risk that recent rate lows represent something of a floor until economic data makes a case that rates should go lower, but there's NEVER ANY way to know exactly what rates will do in the future. If you don't believe that after today, well... please just believe it.

08/22/2024

How accurate is economic data reported initially? Wildly different revisions like this tell the story.

08/12/2024

Another home SOLD!!!!

05/30/2024

05/21/2024

04/28/2024